VFL/AFL Grand Final Day temperatures, 1898-2025

Ever since I studied the 1987 Grand Final in what was then Melbourne’s earliest 30˚C day on record, the relationship between the weather and football has always been on interest to me. The occasional very wet or very hot days are the usual scene of attention, given that the average weather in Melbourne in late September or early October is very pleasant — 17˚C to 19˚C with over 6 hours sunshine each day, or warm enough for a light cotton jumper and jeans, although frequent strong winds make it feel cooler and require warmer clothing.

For this table I have tabulated the maximum temperature in Melbourne on every VFL/AFL Grand Final day since the first was played in 1898, except for 1924 when no grand final was played, and 2020 and 2021 when COVID caused the Grand Final to be played outside Melbourne. The 1948, 1977 and 2010 replays have been included, and weighted equally with the draws when calculating 5-year means. Temperatures have been colour-coded into bands thus:

Temperature band	Range
*“Frigid”	below -9.4˚C	below 15˚F
*“Freezing”	-9.4˚C to 0˚C	15˚F to 32˚F
*“Chilly”	0˚C to 7.2˚C	32˚F to 45˚F
“Cold”	7.2˚C to 12.8˚C	45˚F to 55˚F
“Cool”	12.8˚C to 18.3˚C	55˚F to 65˚F
“Comfortable”	18.3 to 23.9˚C	65˚F to 75˚F
“Warm”	23.9˚C to 29.4˚C	75˚F to 85˚F
“Hot”	29.4˚C to 35˚C	85˚F to 95˚F
*“Sweltering”	above 35˚C	above 95˚F
* = not found in Grand Final Day sample

VFL/AFL Grand Final Day Maximum Temperatures (Second Games are Replays)

For this table, because the Bureau of Meteorology is reluctant to trust temperature data before 1910 — unfortunate given that the 1900s were globally likely the coolest decade since the last glacial period — I have italicised years before 1910. (Data on a first glance suggest that during the 1900s standard shelters were in use in Melbourne much earlier than in more newly established temperature stations).

Although maximum temperatures usually occur at the hours when the Grand Final is played, it must be noted that they do not necessarily occur at this time due to abrupt wind changes. This happened, for instance in 1960 when a vigorous frontal system produced heavy rainfall before the game and drove temperatures far below the tabulated maximum.

Season	Grand Final Day Tmax
1898	69.3 ˚F	20.7 ˚C
1899	57.7 ˚F	14.3 ˚C
1900	61.0 ˚F	16.1 ˚C
1901	70.7 ˚F	21.5 ˚C
1902	53.8 ˚F	12.1 ˚C
1903	76.8 ˚F	24.9 ˚C
1904	68.0 ˚F	20.0 ˚C
1905	53.8 ˚F	12.1 ˚C
1906	57.4 ˚F	14.1 ˚C
1907	72.9 ˚F	22.7 ˚C
1908	64.0 ˚F	17.8 ˚C
1909	61.0 ˚F	16.1 ˚C
1910	70.5 ˚F	21.4 ˚C
1911	60.6 ˚F	15.9 ˚C
1912	70.7 ˚F	21.5 ˚C
1913	64.8 ˚F	18.2 ˚C
1914	57.0 ˚F	13.9 ˚C
1915	61.2 ˚F	16.2 ˚C
1916	68.7 ˚F	20.4 ˚C
1917	63.9 ˚F	17.7 ˚C
1918	59.2 ˚F	15.1 ˚C
1919	79.5 ˚F	26.4 ˚C
1920	63.9 ˚F	17.7 ˚C
1921	63.9 ˚F	17.7 ˚C
1922	74.5 ˚F	23.6 ˚C
1923	69.3 ˚F	20.7 ˚C
1925	64.9 ˚F	18.3 ˚C
1926	73.9 ˚F	23.3 ˚C
1927	55.2 ˚F	12.9 ˚C
1928	61.0 ˚F	16.1 ˚C
1929	68.5 ˚F	20.3 ˚C
1930	69.6 ˚F	20.9 ˚C
1931	61.3 ˚F	16.3 ˚C
1932	61.7 ˚F	16.5 ˚C
1933	61.5 ˚F	16.4 ˚C
1934	64.0 ˚F	17.8 ˚C
1935	63.5 ˚F	17.5 ˚C
1936	69.6 ˚F	20.9 ˚C
1937	68.9 ˚F	20.5 ˚C
1938	73.9 ˚F	23.3 ˚C
1939	65.8 ˚F	18.8 ˚C
1940	54.1 ˚F	12.3 ˚C
1941	76.1 ˚F	24.5 ˚C
1942	66.7 ˚F	19.3 ˚C
1943	59.2 ˚F	15.1 ˚C
1944	85.5 ˚F	29.7 ˚C
1945	69.8 ˚F	21.0 ˚C
1946	57.2 ˚F	14.0 ˚C
1947	76.1 ˚F	24.5 ˚C
1948	59.5 ˚F	15.3 ˚C
	55.2 ˚F	12.9 ˚C
1949	57.0 ˚F	13.9 ˚C
1950	70.0 ˚F	21.1 ˚C
1951	68.0 ˚F	20.0 ˚C
1952	66.9 ˚F	19.4 ˚C
1953	62.1 ˚F	16.7 ˚C
1954	57.9 ˚F	14.4 ˚C
1955	57.9 ˚F	14.4 ˚C
1956	64.9 ˚F	18.3 ˚C
1957	65.5 ˚F	18.6 ˚C
1958	52.3 ˚F	11.3 ˚C
1959	63.1 ˚F	17.3 ˚C
1960	71.1 ˚F	21.7 ˚C
1961	66.6 ˚F	19.2 ˚C
1962	57.2 ˚F	14.0 ˚C
1963	76.1 ˚F	24.5 ˚C
1964	69.4 ˚F	20.8 ˚C
1965	76.3 ˚F	24.6 ˚C
1966	56.1 ˚F	13.4 ˚C
1967	61.0 ˚F	16.1 ˚C
1968	70.5 ˚F	21.4 ˚C
1969	73.9 ˚F	23.3 ˚C
1970	57.7 ˚F	14.3 ˚C
1971	66.0 ˚F	18.9 ˚C
1972	19.3 ˚C	66.7 ˚F
1973	23.8 ˚C	74.8 ˚F
1974	17.5 ˚C	63.5 ˚F
1975	19.6 ˚C	67.3 ˚F
1976	15.8 ˚C	60.4 ˚F
1977	15.2 ˚C	59.4 ˚F
	17.1 ˚C	62.8 ˚F
1978	20.7 ˚C	69.3 ˚F
1979	15.8 ˚C	60.4 ˚F
1980	18.3 ˚C	64.9 ˚F
1981	17.7 ˚C	63.9 ˚F
1982	16.3 ˚C	61.3 ˚F
1983	13.5 ˚C	56.3 ˚F
1984	12.4 ˚C	54.3 ˚F
1985	13.3 ˚C	55.9 ˚F
1986	14.7 ˚C	58.5 ˚F
1987	30.7 ˚C	87.3 ˚F
1988	18.4 ˚C	65.1 ˚F
1989	21.7 ˚C	71.1 ˚F
1990	14.0 ˚C	57.2 ˚F
1991	16.6 ˚C	61.9 ˚F
1992	15.1 ˚C	59.2 ˚F
1993	17.4 ˚C	63.3 ˚F
1994	17.8 ˚C	64.0 ˚F
1995	21.5 ˚C	70.7 ˚F
1996	18.5 ˚C	65.3 ˚F
1997	19.6 ˚C	67.3 ˚F
1998	20.7 ˚C	69.3 ˚F
1999	17.5 ˚C	63.5 ˚F
2000	17.7 ˚C	63.9 ˚F
2001	25.9 ˚C	78.6 ˚F
2002	11.9 ˚C	53.4 ˚F
2003	13.7 ˚C	56.7 ˚F
2004	18.2 ˚C	64.8 ˚F
2005	15.9 ˚C	60.6 ˚F
2006	17.8 ˚C	64.0 ˚F
2007	17.5 ˚C	63.5 ˚F
2008	24.0 ˚C	75.2 ˚F
2009	14.2 ˚C	57.6 ˚F
2010	19.9 ˚C	67.8 ˚F
	21.0 ˚C	69.8 ˚F
2011	14.0 ˚C	57.2 ˚F
2012	13.5 ˚C	56.3 ˚F
2013	16.4 ˚C	61.5 ˚F
2014	23.4 ˚C	74.1 ˚F
2015	31.3 ˚C	88.3 ˚F
2016	18.6 ˚C	65.5 ˚F
2017	15.4 ˚C	59.7 ˚F
2018	14.0 ˚C	57.2 ˚F
2019	14.9 ˚C	58.8 ˚F
2022	14.7 ˚C	58.5 ˚F
2023	29.7 ˚C	85.5 ˚F
2024	22.0 ˚C	71.6 ˚F
2025	19.5 ˚C	67.1 ˚F

Graph of Grand Final Day Temperatures and 5-Year Mean:

Maximum Temperatures in ˚C on Each VFL/AFL Grand Final Day in Melbourne (all data courtesy of Australian Bureau of Meteorology)

If we look at this graph, it is difficult to detect the global warming produced by the huge fossil fuel production for the profit of Australian coal barons and Persian Gulf oil sheikhs. This, of course, is substantially a reflection of small sample size. There are, indeed, many cases where a change of merely one day would produce a radically different temperature. For instance, in 1928 and 2008, the preceding Friday exceeded 29˚C.

However, very hot Grand Final days seem to have become more frequent, as seen by two such days in 2015 and 2023 equalling the total before 2015 [from 1944 and 1987].

One interesting fact is that both the hottest and the coolest Grand Final days seem to occur mostly in years of widespread droughts. The very hot Grand Finals of 1944 and 2015, and the very cool Grand Finals of 1902, 1940, and 2002, all occurred in years of extreme drought in various parts of Victoria and adjacent states. So did several slightly less hot or cool Grand Finals like 1946 (cool) and 1965 (hot). A plausible explanation for this is that exceptionally hot and exceptionally cool temperatures are both dependent on dominant anticyclones driving air from Central Australia (very hot weather) or Antarctica (very cool).

Another notable fact is that changes in the date of the Grand Final do not seem to have had much effect upon temperatures. The earlier Grand Final (1916, September 2) was very nearly so hot as the latest one (1923, October 20) whilst the two hottest pre-Kyōtō Protocol Grand Finals were both played in September not October. Of other Grand Finals played with temperatures above 23.9˚C — well and truly warm enough to wear shorts and a T-shirt — only 1919 and 1963 were played in October, whilst 1903, 1941, 1947 and 1965 were played in September. [Regarding the reliability of temperature data from 1903, newspaper reports do suggest strongly the weather was very warm].