Wednesday, 8 November 2017

100 years ago

Having been in the market for old Wisdens a lot lately – though only to improve issues where my extant copy is poor – it has long occurred to me that today marks the centenary of a critical death in the cricket world:
Colin Blythe, who died 100 years ago in World War I, was one of the greatest of spin bowlers and a great matchwinner and turnstile asset for Kent
Just as repetitive (or perhaps more accurately well-remembered and recited by myself) as the false rhyme “Mold bowled” (he actually threw) was in Wisdens from 1890 to 1902 is the phrase “Blythe bowled superbly” in Wisdens from 1901 to 1915. Colin Blythe’s left-arm spin bowling took over 2,500 wickets between 1899 and 1914, making him the twelfth-highest first-class wicket-taker, and his 70 ten wicket match returns is the fifth most of any bowler. Blythe’s vicious spin made him deadly on sticky or crumbled wickets, but with his deceptive flight and variations of pace he was in the 1900s frequently very effective on firm turf, especially with Arthur Fielder’s pace providing a sharp contrast at the other end. His resourcefulness was such that he enjoyed bowling to hard-hitting batsmen.

Blythe was over his decade opposed to Jack Hobbs probably that batsman’s greatest foe over his whole career. Hobbs averaged only 32.63 in innings opposed to Blythe, nineteen runs less than for his whole first-class career. In seventeen of thirty-six innings, Blythe got Hobbs out, and he made Hobbs watchful on the best of pitches.

On 1 June, 1907, Blythe achieved the best ever County Championship bowling analysis, when in less than three hours actual play he took seventeen wickets for forty-eight runs against Northamptonshire. However, the merits of this performance are easily called into question since the pitch was extremely slow and took extremely rapid spin quite unlike anything seen on today’s covered pitches. Moreover, Northamptonshire that year:
  1. averaged just 13.62 runs per wicket over twenty-one matches
    • to be exact the figures were 4,836 runs scored for 355 wickets lost
  2. never totalled over 264 in one innings
  3. never had any batsman play an individual innings higher than 81
  4. were dismissed on a sticky wicket by George Dennett for twelve runs all out ten days later
Nonetheless, I will give the full score of the game to just demonstrate what happened. Not a ball was bowled on the scheduled second day of May 31, and half the play was lost due to rain and wet ground on scheduled opening day May 30:

Kent:

F.E. Woolley b Driffield................26
H.T.W. Hardinge c Cox b East............73
James Seymour b Wells...................37
Mr. K.L. Hutchings b Driffield..........52
Mr. A.P. Day c Kingston b East..........23
*Mr. E.W. Dillon b East................. 4
E. Humphreys c Pool b Driffield......... 0
†F.H. Huish not out.....................19
W.J. Fairservice b East................. 9
C. Blythe c Vials b Driffield........... 6
A. Fielder b East....................... 1
Byes 2, leg-byes 1, no-balls 1.......... 4
TOTAL..................................254


Bowling: G.J. Thompson 15—1—76—0; East 33.2—6—77—5; Wells 6—1—34—1; Driffield 22—9—50—4; Cox 5—1—13—0

Northamptonshire:

†W.A. Buswell st Huish b Blythe......... 0 — c Woolley b Blythe............ 7
M. Cox st Huish b Blythe................ 0 — st Huish b Blythe.............12
Mr. C.J.T. Pool c Fielder b Blythe...... 0 — st Huish b Blythe............. 5
Mr. W.H. Kingston lbw, b Blythe......... 2 — lbw, b Blythe................. 0
G.J. Thompson b Blythe.................. 0 — c Hardinge b Blythe........... 1
W. East c Huish b Blythe................ 0 — c Huish b Fairservice......... 0
Mr. E.M. Crosse c Fairservice b Blythe.. 0 — c Hardinge b Blythe........... 2
Mr. A.R. Thompson c Seymour b Blythe....10 — c Humphreys b Blythe.......... 7
*Mr. G.A.T. Vials not out...............33 — b Fairservice................. 1
W. Wells c Humphreys b Blythe........... 0 — b Humphreys................... 0
Mr. L.T. Driffield b Blythe.............12 — not out....................... 1
Byes 1, leg-byes 2...................... 3 — Byes.......................... 3
TOTAL...................................60TOTAL.........................39


Bowling: First Innings — Blythe 16—7—30—10; Fairservice 12—5—17—0; Fielder 3—0—10—0 Second Innings — Blythe 15.1—7—18—7; Fairservice 9—3—15—2; Humphreys 6—3—3—1
That same year, Blythe took fifteen for 99 against South Africa on a wet pitch at Headingley – given the difference in batting strength likely a greater feat than his Northampton record from fifty days previously. It was 1908 and 1909, however, that saw Blythe at his absolute peak – he took 412 wickets in those two seasons, and carried a substantial burden on hard pitches with Fielder frequently unsound. In the 1910s, Blythe was not so good as before on dry pitches – the fast ball became more difficult with age – but so deadly was he on the many rain-damaged pitches that he headed the averages every year from 1912 to 1914.

In these early 1910s, Blythe was also almost certainly a critical factor in making Kent one of the few counties able to return profits year after year. For contrast, but for wartime cost reductions and the postwar boom Northamptonshire, Worcestershire and Gloucestershire – and very likely other counties like Derbyshire and Somerset – would have folded before the 1910s ended.

Whilst other factors like:
  1. Kent’s proximity to:
    1. London industrial patronage that allowed Kent – unlike most counties in southwest England – to maintain a significant professional staff
    2. a large body of cricket supporters in a very densely populated countryside
    3. a large body of wealthy businessmen and professionals who under the existing low-tax regime could afford time to develop the skills for top-class cricket and play it
  2. less rainy, hotter and sunnier summer weather than the wealthy northern counties of Yorkshire and Lancashire
certainly contributed, the presence of so resourceful and attacking a spin bowler was most probably a major spectator asset, and a larger asset than could be perceived from popularity with Kent supporters. The clearest conclusion from studying first-class cricket crowd figures is that attacking spin bowlingnot attacking batting – constitutes the essential requirement for first-class cricket to pay its way without subsidies from limited-overs forms of the game, or from wealthy patrons.

Class war of the world’s many

One comment today about last Sunday’s Texas school shooting by former Presidential running mate Paul Ryan said:
“What they need is meaningful gun control. Your prayers to the made up invisible being in the sky aren’t helping stop these repeated massacres.”
There may be scientifically a need for better laws or policies to deal with mass shootings, and prayers without action do do nothing. However, if one looks at the quote above, it becomes impossible to think they really care about shootings and only about having their own way – even if they earnestly and logically believe this selfish demand will reduce shootings, something evidenced in Europe and East Asia.

Nevertheless, this claim does not excuse the selfishness – underlying if not always or even normally explicit – in most atheist criticism of Christianity. By contrast, during the interwar period, belief that the secular working and academic classes were utterly and totally self-interested was throughout Europe a basic criticism of workers by the religious landowning and political classes. Today, in contrast, there is little belief in the United States that the growing, increasingly secular Millennial Generation is anything other than idealistic, nor that it is fighting a class war. Class war of the many is inherently opposed to hierarchical religion like traditional Christianity. A cosmology of equality before the law requires not that the worker have the tiniest political influence – indeed it regards workers’ lack of political power as divinely ordained because rulers are given power by God. Rather, it focuses on the moral obligations of rulers to ensure moral laws are in force, and more crucially, that the rulers themselves follow these laws. It is – I make no bones about this – fair to say that with urbanisation it became increasingly difficult for monarchs to be believed to be remotely satisfying these requirements. Even in medieval Europe the continent’s naturally intense class war was revealed via numerous peasant revolts. At that time, illiterate peasants could not understand philosophy – nor did the ruling classes allow them to – but no doubt envy was very widespread.

Nonetheless, one should not confuse cause for equality with selflessness. In fact, the two stand hostile to one another, because the masses demanding equality do not do so because they want sacrifices from the super-rich, but because they want to eliminate their own sacrifices. This drive is inherent in all class war, and no doubt has been a very important part of non-human animal social evolution within the Enriched World, where in many taxa there has been a strong trend from cooperative family group living to pair or solitary living with increased density of animal protein.

How to actually make the super-rich less selfish is another issue – as is whether the super-rich are inherently so selfish as the Left and Centre wish them to appear.

Tuesday, 31 October 2017

Forty years of my life

Photos collected by my mother of myself over my first forty years. Most are from my childhood when I was much slimmer and more red-headed
Today, as promised by my mother, there was a special fortieth birthday party for me – complete with a rebound original 1890 Wisden as a special present. Normally I could not be given so expensive a present as this $500 Wisden, but my mother agreed to for this occasion since she says forty years is the midpoint of my life.
The 1890 Wisden bought for my birthday. A pity that the image is blurred!
The 1890 Wisden is not only the oldest original Wisden I have ever received, but makes continuous my collection of peacetime Wisdens from 1881 to 1992. The 1889 season covered by it is notable for the debut of “the rhyme that lies”, a reference to Arthur Mold and the phrase “Mold bowled”, repetitive in the thirteen Wisdens from 1890 to 1902. Mold debuted to devastating effect in 1889 on a series of fiery or crumbled pitches, but he was considered by most neutral observers to be extremely lucky to bowl twelve seasons before being no-balled for throwing. Mold took over fifteen hundred first-class wickets and his speed and off-break made him unplayable when pitches crumbled or were sticky. It’s probable that the exceptional strength of English bowling in the middle 1890s – a strength rivalled only in the middle 1950s since – and his weakness with the bat helped Mold to get away with an unfair delivery for so long.
The original 1904 Wisden I bought myself. It contains the full book inside – I couldn’t show the pictures as the fingers are not mine!
Aside from the 1890 Wisden, I also received an original 1904 Wisden of exceptional quality and price. I did have a Willows 1904 Wisden, but receiving so good an original at such a price (it was discounted because of numerous blank pages at the rear which I find ridiculous).

The birthday was highlighted by a remarkable abundance of good food, as my brother came from Monash for both lunch and dinner. The lunch was a familiar supermarket roast chicken with stuffing, but I ate it up enough that I did not realise there was a little more chicken in the bag. There was a remarkable amount of cake – one older mandarin and almond cake, one lime cake and one pear and chocolate moose cake which was bought for the birthday of myself and my brother. All three cakes were delicious, the mandarin and almond cake made to test a new cake tin especially so.

We walked to the city after this, and I was bought a pair of very good sunglasses, after being laughed at for the sunglasses I had suggested earlier. Although I squint very badly in glary sunshine, I possess no experience buying sunglasses, but the pair I was given is certainly very good and fits me better than the pairs I was criticised for trying. I was by then quite tired, and after we went to Chemist Warehouse, we travelled home by tram.

The last part of the birthday was another highlight. We went to a small French restaurant in Rathdowne Street that – despite walking or cycling down the street countless times since moving to our present address nineteen years ago – I had never so much as seen! We were the only people in the restaurant, and although the food was very expensive the duck and orange sauce I had were utterly delicious! I have seldom eaten such tender and sweet food in my forty years!

During our time in the restaurant it was commented that I became nervous when others spoke consistently about topics not of interest to me – something highly perceptive because I know instinctively that it is very hard for me to listen to conversations on such topics! This was true even with subjects like the death of non-Mandarin Chinese dialects, or modern cricket, where I would have some hope of speaking with some knowledge. The restauranteur had had an unusual history, having lived in Singapore and England before moving to Melbourne.

The last stage of the trip before my brother left to go home was a gelati at a place in Lygon Street opposite the main shopping centre where I have done most grocery shopping for many years. I forget the name but enjoyed the mango and strawberry gelati very much.

All in all, this was a great fortieth birthday and I appreciate why we cannot have this every year. I also appreciate the problems I have had with my behaviour, which still do not go away despite my mother saying I am always improving.

Friday, 27 October 2017

John Farndon’s “fifty greatest ideas”

  1. The Internet
  2. Writing
  3. Contraception
  4. Music
  5. Use of Fire
  6. Abolition of Slavery
  7. Evolution by Natural Selection
  8. The Scientific Method
  9. Sewerage
  10. Computer Programming
  11. Hope
  12. Logic
  13. The Wheel
  14. Democracy
  15. The Zero
  16. The Telephone
  17. Vaccination
  18. Bread
  19. Feminism
  20. Printing
  21. Quantum Theory
  22. Electricity Grids
  23. The Self
  24. Arable Farming
  25. Calculus
  26. Government
  27. Marxism
  28. Refrigeration
  29. Simplified Chinese Characters
  30. Universities
  31. Laws of Motion
  32. Mass Production
  33. Romance
  34. Wine
  35. Coffee and Tea
  36. Pottery
  37. The Steam Engine
  38. Banking
  39. Copper and Iron
  40. The Sail
  41. The Welfare State
  42. Capitalism
  43. Qi
  44. Epic Poetry
  45. Honour
  46. Monotheism
  47. The Aerofoil
  48. The Stirrup
  49. Weaving and Spinning
  50. Marriage
This list, to me, is very much flawed. Even Farndon himself in writing The World’s Greatest Idea admits the flaws behind even sacrosanct ideas such as democracy, although he does not go nearly so far as Hans Hoppe or anti-democratic critics since the fourth-century Simon the Theologian have, or even mention them. It would logically be very valuable to distinguish good form harmful ideas in such a list.

There is also many things underrated or unmentioned in the list. #47 (the aerofoil, which permitted the airplane) should have been much, much higher given the direct and indirect impacts of aviation. The speed at which people can travel would be utterly impossible without aviation unless high speed rail could be developed or – as the PIGs often suggest – pay-as-you-go roads could be made to allow the speeds modern cars are capable of to be safely driven. #17 (Vaccination) and #27 (Refrigeration) should also have been much higher. Both affected the distribution of human settlement to an extreme extent and helped permit major social changes by allowing longer periods of individual development. #9 (Sewerage) falls into this category too.

#23 (The Self) and #20 (Printing) were inventions that allowed the growth of modern philosophy and of the European global empires, and thus I would certainly agree with them as potentially higher.

Fertilisers – which have meant that Australia has not only superabundant minerals but unlike the Gulf States also the ability to use hyperabundant flat land that is extremely deficient in essential thiophile elements evaporated by fire over tens of millions of years – are another omission. Modern fertilisers allowing land previously far beyond the “productive soil margin” to be cultivated have not only saved many lands from regular famine, but have also:
  • allowed the democratisation of numerous nations where large landowners were previously too powerful obstacles due to their fear of taxation, including:
    • post-Stalinist Eastern Europe (except Czechoslovakia)
    • all of Southern Europe
    • almost all of Latin America
    • Japan, Taiwan and South Korea
  • been a primary cause of the rapid decline of Christianity in these nations as the highly secular urban working and academic classes were not longer faced with economically viable political opponents
  • much more destructively had severe impacts on the ancient, slowly-speciating biological hotspot of Southwest Western Australia, where dirt-cheap land has been and continues to be opened for unsustainable farming with severe global climate impacts
  • had lesser but also severe impacts on sub-Saharan Africa, where it has increased comparative advantage in agriculture and retarded alternative economic developments that are undoubtedly more environmentally critical than in the Enriched World, Asia or Latin America
Fertilisers ought certainly in my opinion to have been in the top five. Even when Farndon talks about arable farming he does not recognise how a transformation from cultivating naturally hypereutrophic soils to geologically less unrepresentative oligotrophic ones is certainly so crucial as the invention of arable farming itself.

Film is another invention that should have been on there, as could its related invention Television. The influence of film on humanity since its invention cannot be denied. Apart from film and television as entertainment in themselves:
  • film has allowed the exposure of parts of the world that cannot be visited due to climate or politics
  • film has allowed the exposure to the public of scandals and secrets that in previous generations were never known. Whilst this may have made people more suspicious of authority and weakened communities, it has certainly made deadly corruption less likely
  • many sports (e.g. basketball and volleyball) would be very specialised interests without the aid of television owing to the specialised body types required
Organic pesticides – even if banned due to their persistence in the environment – were a major improvement on using un-selective and toxic toads to eat pests, or un-selectively poisonous and naturally extremely scarce lead and arsenic compounds to kill them. These pesticides were critical to the “Green Revolution” discussed in the previous paragraph and briefly hinted at in #24 of the book; however, the radical change they were to agricultural practices cannot be overlooked.

Electrolysis – which via its ability to isolate metals with powerful bonds to oxygen transformed Australia from a non-arable wasteland of uniquely low fertility into the planet’s richest nation – should have been in the top ten but was not mentioned at all. Electrolysis and the resultant ability to exploit metals more reactive than iron had an incomparably greater effect on the world than iron metallurgy. Without the ability to use metals more reactive than iron the Earth’s resources would have been exhausted at almost the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.

I could probably think of a lot more omissions than these if I looked harder; however, I am not in the mood with so much to think about at present.

Monday, 23 October 2017

Reconciling ‘Time’’s contradictory impulses means recognising the planet as different worlds

Quite recently, Time magazine demonstrated that whatever the claims of vegetarians and vegans, humans are not naturally vegetarian. This is especially true outside of Australia and Africa, where human evolution to IQs capable of evolving to develop civilisation and advanced science was certainly dependent upon the availability of meat. With vegetarian or vegan diets, brains could have never grown larger than a gorilla’s.

Now, in an incomparably less original post but one I felt I should bog for the sake of fairness Time has shown that if the globe was to go vegetarian or vegan, then as many as eight million lives would be saved by completely eliminating meat from the global diet – and many more from ameliorating resultant climate change through reduced greenhouse gas emissions.

There is one trouble – how significant I do not know – with this familiar argument. This is that shifting to a vegetarian diet would further shift irreplaceable economic advantages towards less fertile nations – mainly in Australia and Africa. Even if they were only producing plant foods, the gains would be vastly less than theoretical. Either:
  1. the globe would need to adopt protein-deficient diets with health costs thereof or
  2. the densely-populated “fertile” Tropical World (tropical Asia, Mesoamerica, Andean South America) would have to become the protein bowl, which the free market clearly shows as exceedingly inefficient economically except at the lowest labour costs:
    • Tropical Asia, Mesoamerica and Andean South America are extremely short of land relative to population, even compared to Europe, North Asia and the temperate Americas – let alone to Australia and Africa
    • the resultant exceptionally large comparative disadvantage in agriculture of the more-developed and densely populated (sub)tropical East Asian nations
    • one recent study suggests this comparative disadvantage will spread with development to the rest of Monsoon Asia
  3. technology would have to be radically improved to allow first-class plant protein on ancient, poor soils.
    • it’s highly possible that inability to produce adequate plant protein even for small brains prevented indigenous farming developing in Aboriginal Australia.
Plant foods cannot be economically produced under the very high land prices of Europe, East Asia, Southern Cone South America, or the east and west coasts of North America. Moreover, in North Asia and most of North America, plant food production is uneconomic because of very short frost-free seasons and more often than not steep terrain. Whilst one might predict that global warming would improve the position of these lands in agriculture, in practice excessive regulation makes rebuilding (as farmland) the large areas of wasteland created by demographic decline in the Enriched World very difficult. Excessive regulation on land devoid of endemic species is likely demanded by “quality of life”-demanding Enriched World populations removed from the drudgery of farming or manufacturing.

Regulation of the environment is also related to the Enriched World’s powerful inherent egalitarianism (Cornwallis et. al., 2017; Kahan et. al., 2007) possibly because the natural glacial/interglacial climatic changes disrupt the maintenance of such social structures (Cornwallis et. al., 2017).

Because most of Europe’s and all of Canada’s flora and fauna is only 8,000 to 10,000 years old and sourced respectively from the Mediterranean and American South, conservation of these regions has no ecological value whatsoever: all species conserved there will become extinct with the next glaciation! Moreover, as Weir and Schulter (2007) have shown, sister species in North America and the Southern Cone are two orders of magnitude younger than similarly related sister species in the humid tropics. Given the concentration of primitive taxa such as marsupials and basal passerines in Australia and Africa, and the concentration there of highly social cooperative breeders – whom Cockburn (2003) shows to speciate exceptionally slowly if at all – it would be expected that sister species in the subtropical arid zones of the Eastern Hemisphere are still older than those in the humid tropics. Although the Western Hemisphere is radically different from the Eastern in – except the erratically arid sertão – entirely lacking ancient, flat and dry regions, Weir (2007) still failed to examine sister species in the young arid zones of North America in his study of diversity evolution. Mittelbach et. al. (2007), in contrast, suggest that speciation rates are not higher in the Enriched World; however, he does suggest fast extinction rates explain the low or zero Enriched World endemism and low species diversity.

In order to deal with this issue, people today need to realise that production of animal protein is natural only in the Enriched World. Before the development of water-intensive irrigation and fertilisers, animal-based diets were natural in human populations only poleward of 40˚ to 45˚ from the equator, where these high protein diets limited fertility and birth rates. It’s plausible that if restrictions on land and water use in low latitudes were stringent enough, and wages in the high latitudes less hiked by minimum wage laws that limit employment, there would be opportunities for more efficient use of hunting or seasonal grazing to give a more nutritious diet on land where even exploitative use has negligible long-term impacts due to extreme youth. In fact, such was done extensively in the Alps and elsewhere, but has decayed due to the opening up of the Unenriched World where land is cheaper but less sustainable.

Indeed – though quantification has not been attempted – it is highly plausible that at least in Australia, the oldest and most fragile extant continent, the ecological gains from importing all animal foods from the Enriched World and revegetating the continent would exceed pollution and greenhouse costs from transportation were there a concerted national high-speed rail plan to cover all long-distance travel. In other Unenriched landmasses, the gains would be smaller but still potentially substantial.

As a matter of fact, it is my view that – except for species demonstrably “Endangered” – protection is superfluous in most of the Enriched World owing to the macroregion’s exceedingly high natural secondary productivity, rapid species turnover, and absence of species younger than the last glaciation except in the lowest latitude parts. Utilising very high-latitude protein source is no doubt more expensive than the Unenriched World, but also vastly more sustainable because we are losing only a splintering of geological history vis-à-vis a substantial part or even majority of the Phanerozoic.

References:

  • Cockburn, Andrew; ‘Cooperative Breeding in Oscine Passerines: Does Sociality Inhibit Speciation?’; Proceedings of the Royal Society; Volume 270, No. 1530 (November 7, 2003), pp. 2207-2214
  • Cornwallis, Charlie K.; Botero, Carlos A.; Rubenstein, Dustin R.; Downing, Philip A., West, Stuart A. and Griffin, Ashleigh S. (2017); ‘Cooperation facilitates the colonization of harsh environments’; Nature, Ecology and Evolution, volume 1, pp. 1-10
  • Kahan, Dan M.; Braman, Donald; Slović, Paul; Gastil; John and Cohen, Geoffrey L.; ‘ The Second National Risk and Culture Study: Making Sense of – and Making Progress In – The American Culture War of Fact’; (October 3, 2007). GWU Legal Studies Research Paper No. 370 and GWU Law School Public Law Research Paper No. 370.
  • Mittelbach, Gary G.; Schemske, Douglas W.; Cornell, Howard V.; Allen, Andrew P.; Brown, Jonathan M.; Bush, Mark B.; Harrison, Susan P.; Hurlbert, Allen H.; Knowlton, Nancy; Lessios, Harilaos A.; McCain, Christy M.; McCune, Amy R.; McDade, Lucinda A.; Mark A. McPeek, Near, Thomas J.; Trevor D. Price, Ricklefs, Robert E. Roy, Kaustuv; Sax, Dov F.; Schluter, Dolph; Sobel, James M. and Turelli, Michael; ‘Evolution and the latitudinal diversity gradient: speciation, extinction and biogeography’; Ecology Letters 10 (2007); pp. 315–331
  • Weir, Jason T.; (2007 thesis) ‘Evolution of the latitudinal species diversity gradient of New World birds and mammals’
  • Weir, Jason T. and Schulter, Dolph (2007); ‘The Latitudinal Gradient in Recent Speciation and Extinction Rates of Birds and Mammals’; Science, 315 (5818); pp. 1574-1576

Sunday, 22 October 2017

European toad versus cane toad: a study in contrasting research

Rivalled by only the rabbit and red fox as worst and most dangerous introduced species in Australia is the cane toad (Rhinella marina; historically and familiarly Bufo marinus).
Adult female cane toad with human hand for comparison
The toad is absolutely lethal to the unique marsupials of the genus Dasyurus (quolls) which have evolved for 150,000,000 years with zero exposure to toad toxins, and demonstrably cannot coexist with bufonids anywhere.  This is seen in the fact that toad invasion has throughout the monsoonal tropics caused 97 percent declines in Northern Quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus) populations within a couple of years without any later recoveries. Bufonids also extremely dangerous to a number of predatory reptiles, such as goannas (Varanus) and elapid snakes, though unlike quolls these species can undergo behavioral or morphological changes to permit them to avoid eating toads.
Northern Quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus) – went from “Least Concern” to Endangered in a decade due to the spread of cane toads
It is well known that the cane toad was introduced into Australia to control a number of species of native “cane beetles” that were killing sugarcane by feeding on the plant’s sweet roots. It is also well known that, besides extirpating quolls and goannas, the cane toad did not reduce the numbers of cane beetles. In fact, the year 1946 saw the worst outbreak on record although toads had been released a decade beforehand!

However, it is almost unknown that at the very time the cane toad was released into Queensland, the CSIR was experimenting with the European Common Toad (then Bufo vulgaris; now Bufo bufo) as a pest control agent for Oncoptera grass grubs that were eating pastures in southern Australia. Proposals to import Bufo vulgaris (as I will call it for the rest of this post) and also the natterjack toad Bufo calamita date back to Western Australia in 1897. They were never executed in the first third of the twentieth century, but with increasing pest problems in the 1930s, the CSIR imported several specimens of Bufo vulgaris for a thorough test as a biological control agent against various Oncoptera. The CSIR found that Bufo vulgaris devoured all stages of Oncoptera (except, perhaps, the eggs) but that it could not dig down to reach them in their burrows. Consequently, the CSIR did not release Bufo vulgaris into southern Australia.
European common toad (Bufo vulgaris; now Bufo bufo)
If Bufo vulgaris (or the natterjack toad) had been released, it would have been likely more disastrous than the cane toad. This is because those few Australian species able to handle toad poison are almost all (Podargus frogmouths being a possible exception) immigrants from west of Wallacea – a group of islands with neither toads nor those predators (e.g. quolls) most affected by bufonid poison. Such species stand less likely to migrate into the Eyrean and Bassian faunal regions of central and southern Australia.
Eastern Quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) now extinct on the mainland due to cane toads, and “Endangered” even in toad-free Tasmania due to rapid anthropogenic climate change
Were either Bufo vulgaris or the natterjack released it is practically certain that the spotted-tailed quoll (Dasyurus maculatus) and eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) would have been extirpated extremely quickly except – perhaps – from small islands where the toads might not have been released. Most likely those two species would have gone “Extinct” before the middle 1970s when the first studies of the cane toad’s impact on native fauna was published by Mick Archer and snake specialist Jeanette Covacevich. Even the Western Quoll (Dasyurus geoffroii) could quite possibly have been extirpated by toads before 1974 – although the drastic (87 percent around Perth) enhanced greenhouse gases decline in streamflow over southwestern Australia since then might ironically have protected it from introduced Bufo vulgaris. I have also imagined that poison in Bufo vulgaris eggs and/or tadpoles would have been a threat to the iconic platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus) which hunts purely by touch and possesses as little exposure in its evolution to toad toxins as Dasyurus.
Spotted-tailed quoll Dasyurus maculatus – the largest Dasyurus. The CSIR’s prudence in not releasing Bufo vulgaris has so far saved this species from either extinction or being “Critically Endangered” and confined to small islands
In contrast to the CSIR’s serious study of Bufo vulgaris – although it quite naturally failed to test the toad’s toxicity toward those species probably saved thereby – Bufo marinus was released into Queensland with absolutely zero testing on the cane beetles it was supposed to control! Rather, the release of Bufo marinus was done as an act of faith that it would eat the beetles consuming sugar cane – a method used to sell toads to farmers and gardeners for several centuries before 1935.

Belief in the magical power of toads to control pests was dogma among the globe’s closely-knit sugar growing fraternity in the 1930s. It is highly plausible that this fraternity feared science for the same reason that large landowners in Catholic Europe did – that it would undermine their political power by providing justification for wealth redistribution from them. While the large landowners of Catholic Europe turned to stigmata stories and Marian apparitions as their means of countering class war, sugar planters held firmly onto beliefs about certain predators as effective pest control agents whether they worked or not. Thus, when the release of Bufo marinus in Puerto Rico coincided with reduced grub density and Raquel Dexter’s dissections showed Bufo marinus to eat beetles, it became dogma among the global sugar fraternity that toads would control beetles everywhere they be introduced. However, as demonstrated by Nigel Turvey in his Cane Toads: A Tale of Sugar, Politics and Flawed Science, the actual reason for the (temporary) decline in grubs in Puerto Rico was due to unusually wet rainy seasons pinching breeding by waterlogging soils.

The cost of this false belief to Australia’s unique native wildlife has been qualitatively different from other landmasses without native bufonids. Oceanic island predators – even when living on a landmass without toads – were chiefly predatory raptors that evolved on continents with toads. Thus, unlike quolls or Pseudechis snakes, other landmasses where Bufo marinus was introduced had predators who could effectively regulate its numbers – not to mention merely one-thousandth to one-hundredth the space to expand. Thus even with uniquely bad soils, uniquely low secondary productivity and uniquely unreliable runoff toads in Australia can reach higher densities than anywhere else in the world – further condemning those who introduced the cane toad based purely upon dogma.

Friday, 20 October 2017

“Karoshi” and hardest-working US cities

Although – despite their overall strong similarities in environment vis-à-vis the Tropical and/or Unenriched Worlds – I have long known that Europe and Japan have different cultures re work and employment.

However, these two studies done in recent days by Australia’s Business Insider suggest that cultural effects have caused Europe and Japan to deviate much more than mere environmental differences would suggest. Chris Weller has found that many Japanese workers, facing the problem of long-term employment security, have suffered “karoshi” (a Japanese term for death by overwork). In July 2013, a thirty-one-year-old journalist called Miwa Sado died of heart failure after reportedly lagging one hundred and fifty-nine hours of overtime. More than twenty percent of Japanese workers work over forty-nine hours a week, vis-à-vis only sixteen percent even in the US (and a much smaller proportion no doubt in Europe, New Zealand, Canada and Australia).

Weller says Japan has not been successful at ending karoshi via relatively conventional means involving improving leave for workers and encouraging women to work. This suggest something more radical is needed – or that a culture of fatalism means people feel they have a duty to work as hard as possible because they cannot improve their status by less other means. Unlike hierarchism or individuoegalitarianism, fatalism is not based on abstract ideals of equality before the law (hierarchism) or equality of result as in individuoegalitarianism.

In contrast, as I noted in a previous paragraph, people in Europe (according to WalletHub) work only four-fifths of the hours of American workers. WalletHub’s Nicholas Bode has listed the following as the hardest-working American cities:
  1. Anchorage, Alaska 
  2. Plano, Texas
  3. Cheyenne, Wyoming
  4. Virginia Beach, Virginia
  5. Irving, Texas
  6. Scottsdale, Arizona
  7. San Francisco, California
  8. Corpus Christi, Texas
  9. Washington, DC
  10. Sioux Falls, South Dakota
  11. Denver, Colorado
  12. Dallas, Texas
  13. Charlotte, North Carolina
  14. Gilbertt, Arizona
  15. Jersey City, New Jersey
This list is perhaps the first time I have seen a list without anything in common at all – and that includes (most if not all of) the major music lists I used to read fifteen years ago. The one thing lacking appears to be small, remote cities – a fact that reflects the cheapness of land and reduced requirement for hard work under such conditions. However, the list does not include only infamously expensive cities like those of coastal California or the Northeast – several of these cities are in hotter and cheaper southern regions, where one would expect hard work to be more difficult in high temperatures. It’s probable that low taxes and reduced welfare encourages hard work, but the list leaves almost everything unanswered.

Thursday, 31 August 2017

150 Worst Albums Made by Men by National Public Radio

Pink indicates own album, whilst pink on artist indicated I own other albums by that artist.

According to National Public Radio, the point of the list was to:

“shift “the assumption that a male perspective can stand for all perspectives,” and to recenter women as a vital, dynamic part of the musical canon without reverting back to that perspective.”
Whilst with some reservations I do agree with that perspective, the problems with the individuoegalitarian culture of today’s Enriched World are undeniable, particularly from a demographic perspective but also from an ecological one in that it encourages people and economics to locate in the most expensive low-latitude locations. Rod Dreher, as noted here, has shown that today’s younger generation has trouble interacting – a view I can certainly sympathise with even though I will admit it is my own flaw.

I will list the albums below and then make comments:

150 Worst Albums Made by Men:

150. Pearl Jam, No Code
149. Skinny Puppy, Too Dark Park
148. Mother Love Bone, Apple
147. Chris Brown, Graffiti
146. Ace Frehley, Ace Frehley
145. Dave Matthews Band, Before These Crowded Streets
144. Morrissey, Years of Refusal
143. Jay-Z and Linkin Park, Collision Course
142. Good Charlotte, Cardiology
141. Kanye West, 808s and Heartbreaks
140. Stevie Wonder, Characters
139. Big Sean, Finally Famous
138. Jay-Z and R. Kelly, Unfinished Business
137. Guns N Roses, Chinese Democracy
136. Diplo, Decent Work for Decent Pay
135. Dr. Dre, Dr. Dre Presents… The Aftermath
134. Tool, Ænima
133. Chief Keef, Finally Rich
132. Drake, Views
131. Phish, Lawn Boy
130. David Guetta, Listen
129. Jamie Foxx, Best Night of My Life
128. Slint, Spiderland
127. Pat Boone, The Greatest Story Ever Told
126. Flo-Rida, Wild Ones
125. Dee Dee Ramone, Dee Dee King
124. The National, Boxer
123. Snoop Lion, Reincarnated
122. Julio Iglesias, 1100 Bel Air Place
121. Daniel Powter, Daniel Powter
120. Yung Lean, Unknown Memory
119. Eamon, I Don’t Want You Back
118. Usher, Raymond v. Raymond
117. Stephen Malkmus and the Jicks, Pig Lib
116. Warrant, Cherry Pie
115. Prince, The Rainbow Children
114. The Crystal Method, Tweekend
113. Bon Iver, For Emma, Forever Ago
112. Soulja Boy, iSouljaBoyTellEm
111. Duran Duran, Thank You
110. Gene Simmons, Gene Simmons
109. Neil Young, Are You Passionate?
108. Michael Bolton, Soul Provider
107. Hoobastank, Every Man for Himself
106. Kula Shaker, Peasants, Pigs and Astronauts
105. The Weeknd, Kiss Land
104. The Beatles, Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band
103. Vanilla Ice, Bi-Polar
102. Russell Crowe and The Ordinary Fear of God, My Hand, My Heart
101. Bo Bice, 3
100. Muse, Drones
99. Lifehouse, No Name Face
98. Bobby Brown, The Masterpiece
97. The Cure, Wild Mood Swings
96. The Shins, Oh, Inverted World
95. Philly’s Most Wanted, Get Down or Lay Down
94. Action Bronson, Mr. Wonderful
93. AC/DC, Fly on the Wall
92. U2, How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb
91. Bee Gees, Living Eyes
90. Ray J, Raydiation
89. Jack White, Blunderbuss
88. Twenty One Pilots, Blurryface
87. The-Dream, IV Play
86. Swedish House Mafia, Until Now
85. Wilco, Yankee Hotel Foxtrot
84. Moby, Destroyed
83. Jet, Get Born
82. Jason Mraz, We Sing, We Dance, We Steal Things.
81. Gavin DeGraw, Gavin DeGraw
80. Deadmau5, Random Album Title
79. Radiohead, Kid A
78. Fun, Some Nights
77. One Direction, Four
76. Korn, Korn
75. Coldplay, Ghost Stories
74. Papa Roach, Infest
73. Elvis Presley, Today
72. Robbie Williams, Swing When You’re Winning
71. Giorgio Moroder, Déja-Vu
70. Weezer, Make Believe
69. Ed Sheeran, +
68. Daughtry, Leave This Town
67. Calvin Harris, I Created Disco
66. Maroon 5, Hands All Over
65. Metallica, Death Magnetic
64. Steve Miller Band, The Joker
63. Lil Wayne, Rebirth
62. Mötley Crüe, Generation Swine
61. Timbaland, Shock Value
60. Sufjan Stevens, Illinois
59. The Rolling Stones, Dirty Work
58. Borgore, #NEWGOREORDER
57. Sting, Ten Summoner’s Tales
56. Chingy, Hate It or Love It
55. Arcade Fire, The Suburbs
54. Toby Keith, Shock’n Y’all
53. Uncle Kracker, No Stranger to Shame
52. Plain White T’s, All That We Needed
51. Imagine Dragons, Smoke + Mirrors
50. Staind, Break the Cycle
49. Miles Davis, Doo Bop
48. Cee Lo Green, Heart Branch
47. 98 Degrees, Revelation
46. Ted Nugent, Cat Scratch Fever
45. Oasis, Standing on the Shoulder of Giants
44. Brad Paisley, Wheelhouse
43. Savage Garden, Savage Garden
42. Josh Groban, Closer
41. Nelly, 5.0
40. Sting, Sacred Love
39. Belle and Sebastian, Fold Your Hands Child, You Walk Like a Peasant
38. Orgy, Punk Statik Paranoia
37. The Black Eyed Peas, Elephunk
36. Jack Johnson, In Between Dreams
35. Magic!, Primary Colours
34. Charlie Puth, Nine Track Mind
33. The Strokes, Comedown Machine
32. Enrique Iglesias, Sex and Love
31. Placebo, Placebo
30. Nickelback, Silver Side Up
29. Rapeman, Two Nuns and a Pack Mule
28. Limp Bizkit, Chocolate Starfish and the Hot Dog Flavored Water
27. Lou Reed, Metal Machine Music
26. The Doors, Strange Days
25. James Blunt, Back to Bedlam
24. 311, 311
23. Jay-Z, Kingdom Come
22. Barenaked Ladies, Stunt
21. Matchbox Twenty, Mad Season
20. Robin Thicke, Paula
19. Trapt, Amalgamation
18. Methods of Mayhem, A Public Disservice Announcement
17. Train, Bulletproof Picasso
16. James Taylor, Greatest Hits
15. Justin Timberlake, 20/20 Part II
14. Creed, Human Clay
13. U2, Songs of Innocence
12. Macklemore and Ryan Lewis, This Unruly Mess I’ve Made
11. Joe Scarborough Band, Mystified
10. Maná, Drama y Luz
9. Eminem, Relapse
8. Bruce Willis, The Return of Bruno
7. Bob Dylan, Christmas in the Heart
6. Kevin Federline, Playing With Fire
5. Toby Keith, 35 MPH Town
4. Chainsmokers, Memories... Do Not Open
3. Lou Reed and Metallica, Lulu
2. Lynyrd Skynyrd, The Last Rebel
1. Kid Rock, Rock N Roll Jesus

Like so many lists, there exists an element of predictability here. Many of these albums have been favourites for critical bashing ever since I read writers like Robert Christgau, Joe S. Harrington and David Keenan now over a decade and a half ago.

Spiderland – which is a brilliant work highlighted by ‘Don, Aman’ – was no doubt included as an effort to be hip for no reason. Tool’s Ænima, which although I have not heard it seems from what I have read to have a similar emotional perspective to the utter, solitary desolation of Spiderland, could be similar since Tool do have some critical credibility.

Wilco may be the sort of effort I read from one amateur named “janitor-x” a decade and a half ago, whereby metal and hardcore are emphasised over anything new from other genres. Sgt. Pepper’s is much more emphatically this – when Rolling Stone listed it as the best album of all time this “janitor-x” wrote a one-star review titled “‘Sgt. Pepper’ Grows Cold and Smells Bad”. The Nation and Kanye West are also potentially of the same school as “janitor-x” – indeed there are a few hints of what he would have said in 2003 and 2004.

Nonetheless, there is little to recommend this list, at least in the absence of well-argued reviews which I do not imagine as present.

Monday, 21 August 2017

Changes in GISS temperature anomalies — systematic or not?

Re-studying the GISS global temperature anomalies, it has occurred to me that the global anomaly shown when one selects a period has been changed over the past year form when I first studied them.

Although the changes are almost all small, and none are significant — one can change the figures quite a bit more by alterning the “smoothing radius”, which is a measure of how the maps resolve known temperature reporting stations which are particularly unevenly distributed during the early years of the maps. This is precisely when GISS maps are most critical because no website to my knowledge publishes national maps of temperature anomaly as far back as 1880.

To do this, I tabulated all the GISS anamalies relative to the 1880 to 1974 period (the aim is to measure natural variability with minimal interference from massive greenhouse pollution by Australia and the Gulf Cooperation Council) and compared the figures given by GISS for 2016 and 2017. The tables were compiled up to June 2015, since which global warming due to Australian and GCC pollution has accelerated.
  • Shading in light red indicates a difference of 0.05˚C to 0.09˚C hotter in 2017 vis-à-vis 2016
  • Shading in dark red indicates a difference of 0.10˚C or more hotter in 2017 vis-à-vis 2016
    • In the actual anomaly table, a dark red shading indicates a month relatively hotter globally than any preceding month
  • Shading in lighter blue indicates a difference of 0.05˚C to 0.09˚C cooler in 2017 vis-à-vis 2016
    • In the actual anomaly table a lighter blue shading indicates a month hotter than the 1880 to 1974 average globally, but relatively cooler than any subsequent month
  • Shading in dark blue indicates a difference of 0.10˚C or more cooler in 2017 vis-à-vis 2016
Month and Year 2016 GISS Anomaly 2017 GISS Anomaly Difference
January 1880-0.13-0.120.01
February 1880-0.06-0.030.03
March 1880-0.040.030.07
April 1880-0.12-0.040.08
May 18800.010.040.03
June 1880-0.11-0.050.06
July 1880-0.11-0.060.05
August 18800.060.05-0.01
September 1880-0.06-0.040.02
October 1880-0.06-0.13-0.07
November 1880-0.07-0.08-0.01
December 1880-0.06-0.08-0.02
January 18810.090.03-0.06
February 18810.02-0.03-0.05
March 18810.150.170.02
April 18810.140.210.07
May 18810.120.180.06
June 1881-0.10-0.010.09
July 18810.060.070.01
August 18810.110.120.01
September 18810.030.00-0.03
October 1881-0.09-0.10-0.01
November 1881-0.14-0.100.04
December 18810.010.050.04
January 18820.270.310.04
February 18820.230.290.06
March 18820.150.160.01
April 1882-0.04-0.030.01
May 1882-0.010.010.02
June 1882-0.07-0.070.00
July 18820.02-0.07-0.09
August 18820.160.08-0.08
September 18820.110.02-0.09
October 1882-0.11-0.14-0.03
November 1882-0.08-0.050.03
December 1882-0.09-0.090.00
January 1883-0.14-0.130.01
February 1883-0.26-0.240.02
March 1883-0.030.010.04
April 1883-0.08-0.020.06
May 1883-0.08-0.030.05
June 18830.070.06-0.01
July 18830.050.060.01
August 18830.00-0.02-0.02
September 1883-0.07-0.08-0.01
October 18830.00-0.04-0.04
November 1883-0.06-0.10-0.04
December 1883-0.02-0.010.01
January 1884-0.020.000.02
February 18840.030.060.03
March 1884-0.19-0.23-0.04
April 1884-0.19-0.26-0.07
May 1884-0.16-0.20-0.04
June 1884-0.20-0.22-0.02
July 1884-0.21-0.210.00
August 1884-0.12-0.120.00
September 1884-0.11-0.14-0.03
October 1884-0.11-0.13-0.02
November 1884-0.16-0.17-0.01
December 1884-0.12-0.13-0.01
January 1885-0.46-0.420.04
February 1885-0.11-0.13-0.02
March 1885-0.09-0.11-0.02
April 1885-0.28-0.270.01
May 1885-0.25-0.26-0.01
June 1885-0.34-0.270.07
July 1885-0.15-0.21-0.06
August 1885-0.14-0.17-0.03
September 1885-0.07-0.11-0.04
October 1885-0.08-0.09-0.01
November 1885-0.08-0.070.01
December 18850.120.11-0.01
January 1886-0.24-0.26-0.02
February 1886-0.26-0.28-0.02
March 1886-0.25-0.220.03
April 1886-0.12-0.110.01
May 1886-0.11-0.090.02
June 1886-0.20-0.200.00
July 1886-0.02-0.07-0.05
August 1886-0.18-0.19-0.01
September 1886-0.07-0.13-0.06
October 1886-0.12-0.16-0.04
November 1886-0.11-0.18-0.07
December 1886-0.08-0.10-0.02
January 1887-0.47-0.55-0.08
February 1887-0.31-0.37-0.06
March 1887-0.16-0.19-0.03
April 1887-0.20-0.22-0.02
May 1887-0.16-0.150.01
June 1887-0.01-0.05-0.04
July 1887-0.06-0.09-0.03
August 1887-0.14-0.18-0.04
September 1887-0.08-0.10-0.02
October 1887-0.21-0.22-0.01
November 1887-0.13-0.120.01
December 1887-0.20-0.170.03
January 1888-0.24-0.200.04
February 1888-0.25-0.200.05
March 1888-0.32-0.260.06
April 1888-0.12-0.060.06
May 1888-0.06-0.060.00
June 1888-0.03-0.010.02
July 18880.050.050.00
August 18880.03-0.02-0.05
September 18880.040.02-0.02
October 18880.120.120.00
November 18880.130.130.00
December 18880.060.100.04
January 18890.000.070.07
February 18890.300.320.02
March 18890.200.220.02
April 18890.220.240.02
May 18890.150.150.00
June 18890.080.05-0.03
July 18890.090.05-0.04
August 1889-0.03-0.06-0.03
September 1889-0.06-0.10-0.04
October 1889-0.10-0.11-0.01
November 1889-0.16-0.20-0.04
December 1889-0.13-0.14-0.01
January 1890-0.30-0.290.01
February 1890-0.29-0.290.00
March 1890-0.25-0.250.00
April 1890-0.20-0.21-0.01
May 1890-0.31-0.290.02
June 1890-0.09-0.090.00
July 1890-0.15-0.120.03
August 1890-0.22-0.25-0.03
September 1890-0.24-0.28-0.04
October 1890-0.11-0.14-0.03
November 1890-0.23-0.36-0.13
December 1890-0.10-0.14-0.04
January 1891-0.26-0.240.02
February 1891-0.32-0.35-0.03
March 18910.01-0.04-0.05
April 1891-0.08-0.12-0.04
May 18910.00-0.02-0.02
June 1891-0.03-0.030.00
July 1891-0.09-0.070.02
August 1891-0.07-0.020.05
September 1891-0.02-0.020.00
October 1891-0.12-0.110.01
November 1891-0.23-0.230.00
December 18910.170.12-0.05
January 1892-0.08-0.12-0.04
February 18920.020.030.01
March 1892-0.19-0.20-0.01
April 1892-0.18-0.19-0.01
May 1892-0.08-0.09-0.01
June 1892-0.01-0.06-0.05
July 1892-0.14-0.19-0.05
August 1892-0.06-0.12-0.06
September 1892-0.13-0.010.12
October 1892-0.04-0.020.02
November 1892-0.35-0.290.06
December 1892-0.10-0.22-0.12
January 1893-0.48-0.62-0.14
February 1893-0.34-0.40-0.06
March 1893-0.08-0.09-0.01
April 1893-0.15-0.140.01
May 1893-0.17-0.19-0.02
June 1893-0.04-0.10-0.06
July 18930.01-0.02-0.03
August 1893-0.09-0.13-0.04
September 1893-0.06-0.08-0.02
October 1893-0.05-0.07-0.02
November 1893-0.02-0.05-0.03
December 1893-0.20-0.200.00
January 1894-0.36-0.37-0.01
February 1894-0.17-0.21-0.04
March 1894-0.05-0.11-0.06
April 1894-0.24-0.32-0.08
May 1894-0.13-0.19-0.06
June 1894-0.24-0.25-0.01
July 1894-0.18-0.110.07
August 1894-0.14-0.090.05
September 1894-0.10-0.13-0.03
October 1894-0.05-0.11-0.06
November 1894-0.11-0.13-0.02
December 1894-0.04-0.040.00
January 1895-0.24-0.26-0.02
February 1895-0.24-0.26-0.02
March 1895-0.13-0.14-0.01
April 1895-0.04-0.08-0.04
May 1895-0.05-0.10-0.05
June 1895-0.05-0.050.00
July 1895-0.03-0.04-0.01
August 1895-0.02-0.020.00
September 18950.100.03-0.07
October 18950.010.020.01
November 1895-0.02-0.020.00
December 18950.060.01-0.05
January 1896-0.04-0.09-0.05
February 18960.00-0.01-0.01
March 1896-0.14-0.120.02
April 1896-0.16-0.140.02
May 1896-0.03-0.020.01
June 18960.050.04-0.01
July 18960.080.110.03
August 18960.040.090.05
September 18960.070.090.02
October 18960.140.200.06
November 1896-0.020.040.06
December 18960.050.110.06
January 1897-0.020.040.06
February 1897-0.020.000.02
March 18970.050.01-0.04
April 18970.160.14-0.02
May 18970.170.12-0.05
June 18970.060.02-0.04
July 18970.090.06-0.03
August 18970.100.02-0.08
September 18970.070.04-0.03
October 18970.02-0.03-0.05
November 1897-0.03-0.07-0.04
December 1897-0.06-0.020.04
January 18980.110.130.02
February 1898-0.16-0.130.03
March 1898-0.38-0.350.03
April 1898-0.14-0.15-0.01
May 1898-0.18-0.150.03
June 1898-0.01-0.02-0.01
July 1898-0.08-0.10-0.02
August 1898-0.09-0.12-0.03
September 1898-0.07-0.09-0.02
October 1898-0.21-0.24-0.03
November 1898-0.22-0.27-0.05
December 1898-0.05-0.11-0.06
January 18990.00-0.03-0.03
February 1899-0.23-0.26-0.03
March 1899-0.19-0.190.00
April 1899-0.03-0.04-0.01
May 1899-0.03-0.06-0.03
June 1899-0.07-0.15-0.08
July 18990.01-0.04-0.05
August 18990.100.06-0.04
September 18990.110.09-0.02
October 18990.120.05-0.07
November 18990.250.23-0.02
December 1899-0.08-0.12-0.04
January 1900-0.21-0.210.00
February 19000.110.140.03
March 19000.190.17-0.02
April 19000.030.040.01
May 19000.110.06-0.05
June 19000.040.050.01
July 19000.040.00-0.04
August 19000.100.03-0.07
September 19000.140.08-0.06
October 19000.190.18-0.01
November 19000.010.020.01
December 19000.030.090.06
January 1901-0.11-0.060.05
February 19010.140.140.00
March 19010.210.240.03
April 19010.130.140.01
May 19010.000.000.00
June 19010.090.05-0.04
July 19010.05-0.02-0.07
August 19010.01-0.07-0.08
September 1901-0.04-0.09-0.05
October 1901-0.18-0.20-0.02
November 1901-0.03-0.04-0.01
December 1901-0.10-0.100.00
January 1902-0.03-0.030.00
February 19020.130.12-0.01
March 1902-0.14-0.140.00
April 1902-0.10-0.12-0.02
May 1902-0.14-0.18-0.04
June 1902-0.16-0.17-0.01
July 1902-0.13-0.15-0.02
August 1902-0.15-0.19-0.04
September 1902-0.10-0.17-0.07
October 1902-0.16-0.20-0.04
November 1902-0.23-0.26-0.03
December 1902-0.28-0.29-0.01
January 1903-0.10-0.080.02
February 19030.100.120.02
March 1903-0.06-0.07-0.01
April 1903-0.23-0.25-0.02
May 1903-0.24-0.26-0.02
June 1903-0.26-0.28-0.02
July 1903-0.15-0.22-0.07
August 1903-0.29-0.33-0.04
September 1903-0.32-0.38-0.06
October 1903-0.30-0.38-0.08
November 1903-0.25-0.31-0.06
December 1903-0.29-0.34-0.05
January 1904-0.46-0.50-0.04
February 1904-0.38-0.42-0.04
March 1904-0.28-0.33-0.05
April 1904-0.32-0.37-0.05
May 1904-0.34-0.39-0.05
June 1904-0.29-0.32-0.03
July 1904-0.36-0.41-0.05
August 1904-0.30-0.36-0.06
September 1904-0.35-0.40-0.05
October 1904-0.25-0.31-0.06
November 1904-0.03-0.09-0.06
December 1904-0.12-0.19-0.07
January 1905-0.18-0.21-0.03
February 1905-0.41-0.43-0.02
March 1905-0.07-0.070.00
April 1905-0.18-0.180.00
May 1905-0.16-0.160.00
June 1905-0.12-0.120.00
July 1905-0.12-0.18-0.06
August 1905-0.05-0.07-0.02
September 1905-0.01-0.05-0.04
October 1905-0.11-0.15-0.04
November 19050.050.02-0.03
December 1905-0.03-0.030.00
January 1906-0.13-0.120.01
February 1906-0.17-0.150.02
March 19060.02-0.01-0.03
April 19060.150.12-0.03
May 1906-0.04-0.08-0.04
June 1906-0.03-0.030.00
July 1906-0.12-0.110.01
August 1906-0.04-0.05-0.01
September 1906-0.13-0.15-0.02
October 1906-0.09-0.090.00
November 1906-0.24-0.26-0.02
December 19060.000.000.00
January 1907-0.25-0.240.01
February 1907-0.36-0.37-0.01
March 1907-0.09-0.12-0.03
April 1907-0.23-0.220.01
May 1907-0.29-0.30-0.01
June 1907-0.24-0.25-0.01
July 1907-0.22-0.23-0.01
August 1907-0.26-0.240.02
September 1907-0.21-0.22-0.01
October 1907-0.14-0.140.00
November 1907-0.37-0.360.01
December 1907-0.33-0.330.00
January 1908-0.27-0.270.00
February 1908-0.17-0.140.03
March 1908-0.41-0.390.02
April 1908-0.28-0.29-0.01
May 1908-0.22-0.23-0.01
June 1908-0.18-0.22-0.04
July 1908-0.21-0.26-0.05
August 1908-0.30-0.31-0.01
September 1908-0.19-0.22-0.03
October 1908-0.31-0.34-0.03
November 1908-0.37-0.38-0.01
December 1908-0.32-0.33-0.01
January 1909-0.52-0.520.00
February 1909-0.30-0.32-0.02
March 1909-0.36-0.360.00
April 1909-0.41-0.43-0.02
May 1909-0.37-0.39-0.02
June 1909-0.33-0.34-0.01
July 1909-0.29-0.31-0.02
August 1909-0.15-0.16-0.01
September 1909-0.26-0.230.03
October 1909-0.27-0.260.01
November 1909-0.19-0.190.00
December 1909-0.36-0.38-0.02
January 1910-0.26-0.28-0.02
February 1910-0.26-0.28-0.02
March 1910-0.32-0.36-0.04
April 1910-0.22-0.24-0.02
May 1910-0.16-0.18-0.02
June 1910-0.16-0.18-0.02
July 1910-0.17-0.20-0.03
August 1910-0.20-0.23-0.03
September 1910-0.25-0.230.02
October 1910-0.27-0.270.00
November 1910-0.42-0.400.02
December 1910-0.52-0.500.02
January 1911-0.46-0.47-0.01
February 1911-0.43-0.410.02
March 1911-0.47-0.440.03
April 1911-0.38-0.360.02
May 1911-0.34-0.340.00
June 1911-0.27-0.270.00
July 1911-0.27-0.260.01
August 1911-0.28-0.260.02
September 1911-0.26-0.240.02
October 1911-0.14-0.110.03
November 1911-0.07-0.050.02
December 1911-0.07-0.050.02
January 1912-0.09-0.090.00
February 19120.030.040.01
March 1912-0.21-0.200.01
April 1912-0.03-0.030.00
May 1912-0.02-0.04-0.02
June 1912-0.07-0.070.00
July 1912-0.28-0.32-0.04
August 1912-0.39-0.42-0.03
September 1912-0.35-0.38-0.03
October 1912-0.44-0.46-0.02
November 1912-0.25-0.26-0.01
December 1912-0.25-0.29-0.04
January 1913-0.24-0.26-0.02
February 1913-0.25-0.26-0.01
March 1913-0.27-0.28-0.01
April 1913-0.18-0.22-0.04
May 1913-0.27-0.29-0.02
June 1913-0.28-0.31-0.03
July 1913-0.22-0.23-0.01
August 1913-0.18-0.19-0.01
September 1913-0.20-0.22-0.02
October 1913-0.23-0.24-0.01
November 1913-0.06-0.08-0.02
December 19130.140.13-0.01
January 19140.190.200.01
February 19140.020.050.03
March 1914-0.08-0.070.01
April 1914-0.10-0.13-0.03
May 1914-0.02-0.06-0.04
June 1914-0.03-0.08-0.05
July 1914-0.11-0.110.00
August 1914-0.010.000.01
September 1914-0.02-0.010.01
October 19140.050.050.00
November 1914-0.08-0.060.02
December 19140.070.090.02
January 1915-0.010.000.01
February 19150.140.150.01
March 19150.080.06-0.02
April 19150.250.23-0.02
May 19150.150.11-0.04
June 19150.03-0.03-0.06
July 19150.100.03-0.07
August 1915-0.04-0.08-0.04
September 19150.00-0.04-0.04
October 1915-0.11-0.14-0.03
November 19150.010.00-0.01
December 1915-0.09-0.010.08
January 1916-0.020.090.11
February 1916-0.050.040.09
March 1916-0.15-0.130.02
April 1916-0.09-0.13-0.04
May 1916-0.10-0.16-0.06
June 1916-0.24-0.28-0.04
July 1916-0.20-0.22-0.02
August 1916-0.12-0.100.02
September 1916-0.18-0.20-0.02
October 1916-0.17-0.160.01
November 1916-0.29-0.260.03
December 1916-0.62-0.63-0.01
January 1917-0.29-0.41-0.12
February 1917-0.38-0.44-0.06
March 1917-0.33-0.45-0.12
April 1917-0.23-0.34-0.11
May 1917-0.31-0.37-0.06
June 1917-0.21-0.24-0.03
July 1917-0.08-0.09-0.01
August 1917-0.12-0.070.05
September 1917-0.09-0.070.02
October 1917-0.25-0.29-0.04
November 1917-0.16-0.160.00
December 1917-0.53-0.510.02
January 1918-0.25-0.250.00
February 1918-0.17-0.170.00
March 1918-0.04-0.09-0.05
April 1918-0.22-0.27-0.05
May 1918-0.21-0.29-0.08
June 1918-0.11-0.17-0.06
July 1918-0.07-0.16-0.09
August 1918-0.15-0.18-0.03
September 1918-0.03-0.020.01
October 19180.080.07-0.01
November 1918-0.020.020.04
December 1918-0.12-0.110.01
January 1919-0.02-0.03-0.01
February 1919-0.06-0.08-0.02
March 1919-0.12-0.050.07
April 1919-0.030.030.06
May 1919-0.03-0.11-0.08
June 1919-0.09-0.18-0.09
July 1919-0.07-0.13-0.06
August 1919-0.04-0.16-0.12
September 1919-0.06-0.09-0.03
October 1919-0.05-0.08-0.03
November 1919-0.17-0.29-0.12
December 1919-0.17-0.24-0.07
January 19200.04-0.05-0.09
February 1920-0.05-0.050.00
March 19200.090.07-0.02
April 1920-0.08-0.09-0.01
May 1920-0.08-0.09-0.01
June 1920-0.14-0.17-0.03
July 1920-0.18-0.170.01
August 1920-0.15-0.100.05
September 1920-0.09-0.080.01
October 1920-0.19-0.180.01
November 1920-0.19-0.140.05
December 1920-0.28-0.270.01
January 19210.130.140.01
February 1921-0.05-0.030.02
March 1921-0.13-0.080.05
April 1921-0.19-0.120.07
May 1921-0.19-0.120.07
June 1921-0.11-0.080.03
July 1921-0.010.000.01
August 1921-0.11-0.100.01
September 1921-0.05-0.040.01
October 19210.040.080.04
November 1921-0.04-0.010.03
December 1921-0.010.000.01
January 1922-0.14-0.15-0.01
February 1922-0.26-0.28-0.02
March 19220.020.020.00
April 1922-0.04-0.06-0.02
May 1922-0.18-0.160.02
June 1922-0.14-0.140.00
July 1922-0.12-0.090.03
August 1922-0.17-0.150.02
September 1922-0.17-0.19-0.02
October 1922-0.21-0.22-0.01
November 1922-0.020.000.02
December 19220.00-0.02-0.02
January 1923-0.10-0.12-0.02
February 1923-0.19-0.190.00
March 1923-0.15-0.18-0.03
April 1923-0.21-0.22-0.01
May 1923-0.15-0.16-0.01
June 1923-0.05-0.06-0.01
July 1923-0.15-0.150.00
August 1923-0.16-0.150.01
September 1923-0.17-0.160.01
October 1923-0.010.000.01
November 19230.170.13-0.04
December 19230.120.140.02
January 1924-0.05-0.040.01
February 1924-0.09-0.070.02
March 19240.050.100.05
April 1924-0.17-0.150.02
May 1924-0.02-0.010.01
June 1924-0.09-0.030.06
July 1924-0.14-0.120.02
August 1924-0.20-0.180.02
September 1924-0.19-0.170.02
October 1924-0.24-0.220.02
November 1924-0.09-0.060.03
December 1924-0.24-0.240.00
January 1925-0.15-0.20-0.05
February 1925-0.18-0.23-0.05
March 1925-0.07-0.10-0.03
April 1925-0.07-0.08-0.01
May 1925-0.13-0.120.01
June 1925-0.15-0.140.01
July 1925-0.15-0.130.02
August 1925-0.04-0.010.03
September 1925-0.03-0.05-0.02
October 1925-0.07-0.08-0.01
November 19250.170.16-0.01
December 19250.280.26-0.02
January 19260.380.37-0.01
February 19260.230.22-0.01
March 19260.280.27-0.01
April 19260.030.050.02
May 1926-0.07-0.040.03
June 1926-0.07-0.050.02
July 1926-0.07-0.10-0.03
August 19260.040.02-0.02
September 19260.010.00-0.01
October 1926-0.020.000.02
November 19260.070.080.01
December 1926-0.12-0.110.01
January 1927-0.08-0.09-0.01
February 1927-0.03-0.020.01
March 1927-0.22-0.210.01
April 1927-0.14-0.140.00
May 1927-0.08-0.080.00
June 1927-0.09-0.070.02
July 19270.00-0.02-0.02
August 1927-0.08-0.09-0.01
September 19270.040.01-0.03
October 19270.100.100.00
November 19270.090.090.00
December 1927-0.17-0.150.02
January 19280.150.170.02
February 19280.060.090.03
March 1928-0.11-0.100.01
April 1928-0.12-0.100.02
May 1928-0.13-0.130.00
June 1928-0.24-0.200.04
July 1928-0.08-0.040.04
August 1928-0.12-0.080.04
September 1928-0.08-0.060.02
October 1928-0.09-0.070.02
November 19280.030.030.00
December 1928-0.030.000.03
January 1929-0.27-0.260.01
February 1929-0.39-0.40-0.01
March 1929-0.20-0.160.04
April 1929-0.25-0.230.02
May 1929-0.22-0.210.01
June 1929-0.26-0.230.03
July 1929-0.20-0.190.01
August 1929-0.17-0.160.01
September 1929-0.12-0.090.03
October 1929-0.04-0.020.02
November 1929-0.020.010.03
December 1929-0.36-0.37-0.01
January 1930-0.10-0.12-0.02
February 1930-0.07-0.11-0.04
March 19300.070.070.00
April 1930-0.07-0.070.00
May 1930-0.07-0.050.02
June 1930-0.02-0.03-0.01
July 1930-0.05-0.08-0.03
August 19300.030.02-0.01
September 19300.010.010.00
October 19300.010.00-0.01
November 19300.270.280.01
December 19300.100.100.00
January 19310.070.070.00
February 1931-0.04-0.08-0.04
March 19310.100.08-0.02
April 1931-0.03-0.04-0.01
May 1931-0.05-0.020.03
June 19310.130.12-0.01
July 19310.160.13-0.03
August 19310.140.13-0.01
September 19310.040.060.02
October 19310.100.130.03
November 19310.020.020.00
December 19310.080.080.00
January 19320.300.310.01
February 1932-0.01-0.010.00
March 1932-0.02-0.010.01
April 19320.100.120.02
May 1932-0.050.000.05
June 1932-0.13-0.130.00
July 1932-0.12-0.100.02
August 1932-0.10-0.080.02
September 19320.000.030.03
October 19320.010.010.00
November 1932-0.13-0.130.00
December 1932-0.05-0.08-0.03
January 1933-0.15-0.17-0.02
February 1933-0.14-0.17-0.03
March 1933-0.12-0.14-0.02
April 1933-0.06-0.08-0.02
May 1933-0.08-0.11-0.03
June 1933-0.14-0.15-0.01
July 1933-0.05-0.050.00
August 1933-0.10-0.100.00
September 1933-0.14-0.130.01
October 1933-0.14-0.100.04
November 1933-0.20-0.180.02
December 1933-0.29-0.290.00
January 1934-0.07-0.060.01
February 19340.130.130.00
March 1934-0.13-0.17-0.04
April 1934-0.09-0.12-0.03
May 19340.050.060.01
June 19340.040.03-0.01
July 19340.030.050.02
August 19340.040.050.01
September 1934-0.03-0.020.01
October 19340.010.040.03
November 19340.130.170.04
December 19340.100.140.04
January 1935-0.20-0.160.04
February 19350.270.300.03
March 19350.030.040.01
April 1935-0.17-0.18-0.01
May 1935-0.09-0.12-0.03
June 1935-0.04-0.07-0.03
July 1935-0.07-0.09-0.02
August 1935-0.05-0.09-0.04
September 1935-0.08-0.10-0.02
October 19350.030.030.00
November 1935-0.15-0.150.00
December 1935-0.03-0.020.01
January 1936-0.10-0.100.00
February 1936-0.21-0.210.00
March 1936-0.09-0.060.03
April 1936-0.02-0.010.01
May 19360.010.00-0.01
June 1936-0.01-0.02-0.01
July 19360.080.080.00
August 19360.020.01-0.01
September 19360.070.04-0.03
October 19360.080.07-0.01
November 19360.090.100.01
December 19360.140.140.00
January 19370.110.06-0.05
February 19370.230.20-0.03
March 19370.00-0.01-0.01
April 19370.020.020.00
May 19370.110.10-0.01
June 19370.120.150.03
July 19370.090.100.01
August 19370.160.15-0.01
September 19370.270.26-0.01
October 19370.200.200.00
November 19370.240.23-0.01
December 19370.090.07-0.02
January 19380.200.200.00
February 19380.160.160.00
March 19380.220.230.01
April 19380.220.220.00
May 19380.090.08-0.01
June 19380.020.01-0.01
July 19380.050.050.00
August 19380.080.080.00
September 19380.140.140.00
October 19380.230.230.00
November 19380.150.160.01
December 1938-0.06-0.050.01
January 19390.050.100.05
February 19390.050.080.03
March 1939-0.04-0.030.01
April 19390.050.090.04
May 19390.100.120.02
June 19390.090.090.00
July 19390.070.06-0.01
August 19390.060.04-0.02
September 19390.110.06-0.05
October 19390.080.080.00
November 19390.190.18-0.01
December 19390.560.600.04
January 19400.070.150.08
February 19400.230.290.06
March 19400.270.310.04
April 19400.330.360.03
May 19400.280.280.00
June 19400.230.270.04
July 19400.240.270.03
August 19400.140.190.05
September 19400.230.260.03
October 19400.170.180.01
November 19400.250.300.05
December 19400.360.440.08
January 19410.290.380.09
February 19410.400.500.10
March 19410.210.240.03
April 19410.270.350.08
May 19410.260.320.06
June 19410.220.310.09
July 19410.290.370.08
August 19410.270.280.01
September 19410.130.140.01
October 19410.340.440.10
November 19410.250.370.12
December 19410.300.360.06
January 19420.460.44-0.02
February 19420.230.19-0.04
March 19420.260.25-0.01
April 19420.290.27-0.02
May 19420.300.26-0.04
June 19420.280.23-0.05
July 19420.160.160.00
August 19420.110.120.01
September 19420.100.07-0.03
October 19420.160.09-0.07
November 19420.250.20-0.05
December 19420.290.23-0.06
January 19430.190.15-0.04
February 19430.390.30-0.09
March 19430.180.09-0.09
April 19430.310.24-0.07
May 19430.260.21-0.05
June 19430.190.14-0.05
July 19430.290.24-0.05
August 19430.170.16-0.01
September 19430.240.20-0.04
October 19430.410.33-0.08
November 19430.390.33-0.06
December 19430.450.41-0.04
January 19440.590.52-0.07
February 19440.480.43-0.05
March 19440.500.42-0.08
April 19440.430.36-0.07
May 19440.430.37-0.06
June 19440.380.380.00
July 19440.360.33-0.03
August 19440.360.31-0.05
September 19440.410.420.01
October 19440.370.36-0.01
November 19440.250.22-0.03
December 19440.230.19-0.04
January 19450.330.29-0.04
February 19450.210.16-0.05
March 19450.270.23-0.04
April 19450.400.36-0.04
May 19450.260.21-0.05
June 19450.180.16-0.02
July 19450.190.16-0.03
August 19450.380.400.02
September 19450.310.340.03
October 19450.320.30-0.02
November 19450.220.20-0.02
December 19450.080.080.00
January 19460.330.330.00
February 19460.200.220.02
March 19460.150.160.01
April 19460.270.23-0.04
May 19460.140.10-0.04
June 19460.03-0.01-0.04
July 19460.050.02-0.03
August 19460.03-0.01-0.04
September 19460.090.06-0.03
October 19460.030.050.02
November 19460.100.07-0.03
December 1946-0.09-0.16-0.07
January 19470.090.06-0.03
February 19470.140.12-0.02
March 19470.210.230.02
April 19470.210.240.03
May 19470.100.140.04
June 19470.140.210.07
July 19470.090.08-0.01
August 19470.050.060.01
September 1947-0.020.020.04
October 19470.170.180.01
November 19470.130.160.03
December 19470.010.010.00
January 19480.230.250.02
February 19480.050.02-0.03
March 1948-0.09-0.10-0.01
April 19480.080.07-0.01
May 19480.220.19-0.03
June 19480.140.160.02
July 1948-0.010.030.04
August 19480.020.01-0.01
September 1948-0.030.010.04
October 19480.040.050.01
November 19480.030.01-0.02
December 1948-0.04-0.05-0.01
January 19490.270.270.00
February 19490.00-0.01-0.01
March 19490.140.140.00
April 19490.080.06-0.02
May 19490.050.090.04
June 1949-0.09-0.040.05
July 1949-0.020.000.02
August 19490.030.02-0.01
September 19490.02-0.01-0.03
October 19490.070.05-0.02
November 19490.030.030.00
December 19490.00-0.05-0.05
January 1950-0.09-0.14-0.05
February 1950-0.12-0.110.01
March 19500.080.100.02
April 1950-0.05-0.020.03
May 19500.020.070.05
June 19500.090.160.07
July 19500.030.050.02
August 1950-0.08-0.040.04
September 1950-0.010.010.02
October 1950-0.09-0.10-0.01
November 1950-0.21-0.24-0.03
December 1950-0.03-0.020.01
January 1951-0.18-0.170.01
February 1951-0.27-0.250.02
March 1951-0.05-0.050.00
April 19510.060.060.00
May 19510.150.180.03
June 19510.090.180.09
July 19510.080.180.10
August 19510.190.220.03
September 19510.140.220.08
October 19510.190.16-0.03
November 19510.130.11-0.02
December 19510.320.31-0.01
January 19520.320.30-0.02
February 19520.280.27-0.01
March 19520.060.070.01
April 19520.180.200.02
May 19520.100.150.05
June 19520.130.160.03
July 19520.180.190.01
August 19520.210.210.00
September 19520.200.220.02
October 19520.070.110.04
November 1952-0.03-0.010.02
December 19520.140.170.03
January 19530.250.250.00
February 19530.320.31-0.01
March 19530.260.270.01
April 19530.370.370.00
May 19530.250.260.01
June 19530.250.290.04
July 19530.150.150.00
August 19530.220.230.01
September 19530.170.190.02
October 19530.150.180.03
November 19530.080.080.00
December 19530.200.200.00
January 1954-0.10-0.100.00
February 19540.070.06-0.01
March 19540.030.01-0.02
April 1954-0.010.020.03
May 1954-0.04-0.030.01
June 19540.010.010.00
July 1954-0.04-0.040.00
August 1954-0.04-0.05-0.01
September 19540.000.010.01
October 19540.090.07-0.02
November 19540.210.20-0.01
December 1954-0.01-0.04-0.03
January 19550.280.310.03
February 1955-0.05-0.010.04
March 1955-0.20-0.190.01
April 1955-0.06-0.040.02
May 1955-0.04-0.030.01
June 19550.090.06-0.03
July 19550.070.04-0.03
August 19550.200.18-0.02
September 1955-0.020.030.05
October 19550.060.080.02
November 1955-0.15-0.100.05
December 1955-0.15-0.120.03
January 19560.020.030.01
February 1956-0.08-0.080.00
March 1956-0.08-0.080.00
April 1956-0.12-0.110.01
May 1956-0.11-0.13-0.02
June 19560.020.030.01
July 19560.030.040.01
August 1956-0.14-0.120.02
September 1956-0.07-0.050.02
October 1956-0.15-0.130.02
November 1956-0.04-0.040.00
December 19560.060.090.03
January 19570.050.070.02
February 19570.090.120.03
March 19570.090.100.01
April 19570.140.160.02
May 19570.220.250.03
June 19570.330.330.00
July 19570.160.160.00
August 19570.300.29-0.01
September 19570.190.230.04
October 19570.100.140.04
November 19570.200.19-0.01
December 19570.300.320.02
January 19580.540.570.03
February 19580.380.410.03
March 19580.250.280.03
April 19580.170.190.02
May 19580.210.230.02
June 19580.060.060.00
July 19580.160.200.04
August 19580.030.090.06
September 19580.040.100.06
October 19580.120.150.03
November 19580.140.150.01
December 19580.150.160.01
January 19590.230.260.03
February 19590.240.250.01
March 19590.340.32-0.02
April 19590.310.29-0.02
May 19590.210.220.01
June 19590.180.180.00
July 19590.170.210.04
August 19590.100.120.02
September 19590.010.030.02
October 19590.010.020.01
November 19590.010.020.01
December 19590.140.150.01
January 19600.150.170.02
February 19600.290.320.03
March 1960-0.20-0.180.02
April 1960-0.030.000.03
May 19600.060.100.04
June 19600.120.09-0.03
July 19600.080.090.01
August 19600.130.160.03
September 19600.130.190.06
October 19600.160.160.00
November 19600.000.000.00
December 19600.330.350.02
January 19610.240.240.00
February 19610.330.340.01
March 19610.220.220.00
April 19610.300.28-0.02
May 19610.290.290.00
June 19610.250.260.01
July 19610.100.150.05
August 19610.110.170.06
September 19610.190.220.03
October 19610.090.110.02
November 19610.140.160.02
December 1961-0.010.010.02
January 19620.230.240.01
February 19620.290.290.00
March 19620.260.280.02
April 19620.200.200.00
May 19620.070.110.04
June 19620.210.220.01
July 19620.090.150.06
August 19620.070.100.03
September 19620.110.160.05
October 19620.050.110.06
November 19620.170.190.02
December 19620.140.160.02
January 19630.170.180.01
February 19630.340.360.02
March 1963-0.010.010.02
April 19630.100.09-0.01
May 19630.040.110.07
June 19630.180.220.04
July 19630.220.240.02
August 19630.350.420.07
September 19630.320.350.03
October 19630.190.210.02
November 19630.260.270.01
December 19630.160.170.01
January 19640.100.100.00
February 19640.030.02-0.01
March 1964-0.10-0.090.01
April 1964-0.17-0.170.00
May 1964-0.12-0.090.03
June 19640.050.130.08
July 19640.080.140.06
August 1964-0.11-0.070.04
September 1964-0.20-0.180.02
October 1964-0.21-0.200.01
November 1964-0.08-0.080.00
December 1964-0.14-0.130.01
January 19650.070.100.03
February 1965-0.02-0.010.01
March 19650.030.050.02
April 1965-0.05-0.030.02
May 19650.020.040.02
June 19650.040.060.02
July 19650.000.010.01
August 19650.090.100.01
September 1965-0.05-0.06-0.01
October 19650.030.040.01
November 19650.040.040.00
December 19650.080.100.02
January 19660.000.000.00
February 19660.130.140.01
March 19660.180.200.02
April 19660.010.030.02
May 19660.060.060.00
June 19660.150.14-0.01
July 19660.210.250.04
August 1966-0.010.040.05
September 19660.090.120.03
October 1966-0.08-0.060.02
November 19660.090.110.02
December 19660.100.120.02
January 19670.090.120.03
February 1967-0.05-0.06-0.01
March 19670.180.200.02
April 19670.080.100.02
May 19670.270.310.04
June 19670.080.090.01
July 19670.150.190.04
August 19670.140.150.01
September 19670.070.080.01
October 19670.150.180.03
November 19670.050.060.01
December 19670.140.140.00
January 1968-0.05-0.07-0.02
February 19680.010.020.01
March 19680.360.360.00
April 19680.090.100.01
May 19680.050.03-0.02
June 19680.090.08-0.01
July 19680.020.030.01
August 19680.020.060.04
September 1968-0.08-0.050.03
October 19680.200.220.02
November 19680.070.100.03
December 19680.020.040.02
January 19690.090.100.01
February 19690.020.030.01
March 19690.160.160.00
April 19690.320.330.01
May 19690.320.340.02
June 19690.190.210.02
July 19690.090.110.02
August 19690.090.110.02
September 19690.200.210.01
October 19690.180.230.05
November 19690.220.250.03
December 19690.430.450.02
January 19700.260.260.00
February 19700.370.370.00
March 19700.240.240.00
April 19700.230.240.01
May 19700.090.120.03
June 19700.120.120.00
July 19700.090.140.05
August 1970-0.010.030.04
September 19700.220.250.03
October 19700.130.160.03
November 19700.140.160.02
December 19700.020.050.03
January 19710.140.160.02
February 1971-0.07-0.040.03
March 1971-0.05-0.020.03
April 19710.040.070.03
May 19710.070.110.04
June 1971-0.04-0.040.00
July 19710.000.040.04
August 19710.090.110.02
September 19710.120.10-0.02
October 19710.040.050.01
November 19710.050.060.01
December 19710.070.070.00
January 1972-0.10-0.070.03
February 1972-0.010.000.01
March 19720.170.170.00
April 19720.130.150.02
May 19720.120.120.00
June 19720.190.220.03
July 19720.130.150.02
August 19720.320.330.01
September 19720.160.170.01
October 19720.130.160.03
November 19720.110.140.03
December 19720.330.350.02
January 19730.440.460.02
February 19730.440.450.01
March 19730.390.410.02
April 19730.400.410.01
May 19730.410.420.01
June 19730.310.330.02
July 19730.220.250.03
August 19730.120.150.03
September 19730.180.240.06
October 19730.210.250.04
November 19730.170.190.02
December 19730.080.100.02
January 19740.040.03-0.01
February 1974-0.13-0.130.00
March 19740.100.100.00
April 19740.040.03-0.01
May 19740.160.15-0.01
June 19740.120.10-0.02
July 19740.120.120.00
August 19740.240.250.01
September 1974-0.010.030.04
October 19740.040.040.00
November 19740.060.060.00
December 19740.060.080.02
January 19750.240.23-0.01
February 19750.220.220.00
March 19750.290.28-0.01
April 19750.200.200.00
May 19750.330.340.01
June 19750.140.150.01
July 19750.100.130.03
August 1975-0.12-0.090.03
September 19750.070.090.02
October 1975-0.010.010.02
November 1975-0.03-0.020.01
December 1975-0.03-0.020.01
January 19760.150.160.01
February 19760.080.090.01
March 1976-0.06-0.050.01
April 19760.040.060.02
May 1976-0.10-0.080.02
June 19760.000.000.00
July 19760.000.030.03
August 1976-0.08-0.030.05
September 19760.000.030.03
October 1976-0.18-0.160.02
November 19760.050.090.04
December 19760.240.280.04
January 19770.370.400.03
February 19770.350.370.02
March 19770.380.390.01
April 19770.400.420.02
May 19770.460.470.01
June 19770.400.410.01
July 19770.380.380.00
August 19770.330.32-0.01
September 19770.100.110.01
October 19770.110.10-0.01
November 19770.300.28-0.02
December 19770.210.19-0.02
January 19780.250.24-0.01
February 19780.270.290.02
March 19780.360.360.00
April 19780.280.300.02
May 19780.220.230.01
June 19780.120.130.01
July 19780.220.20-0.02
August 1978-0.10-0.060.04
September 19780.190.210.02
October 19780.090.100.01
November 19780.270.26-0.01
December 19780.270.270.00
January 19790.320.31-0.01
February 19790.070.05-0.02
March 19790.330.340.01
April 19790.280.290.01
May 19790.200.220.02
June 19790.260.260.00
July 19790.130.150.02
August 19790.240.260.02
September 19790.370.390.02
October 19790.340.340.00
November 19790.400.400.00
December 19790.630.630.00
January 19800.480.490.01
February 19800.580.590.01
March 19800.450.470.02
April 19800.470.490.02
May 19800.500.520.02
June 19800.300.310.01
July 19800.430.460.03
August 19800.360.360.00
September 19800.350.34-0.01
October 19800.260.270.01
November 19800.410.420.01
December 19800.350.350.00
January 19810.720.720.00
February 19810.570.570.00
March 19810.650.650.00
April 19810.460.470.01
May 19810.380.410.03
June 19810.460.470.01
July 19810.520.530.01
August 19810.490.500.01
September 19810.290.310.02
October 19810.210.220.01
November 19810.340.360.02
December 19810.550.590.04
January 19820.250.270.02
February 19820.310.320.01
March 19820.130.150.02
April 19820.220.240.02
May 19820.300.330.03
June 19820.180.210.03
July 19820.270.290.02
August 19820.150.160.01
September 19820.240.250.01
October 19820.210.220.01
November 19820.240.270.03
December 19820.590.600.01
January 19830.690.700.01
February 19830.540.550.01
March 19830.570.580.01
April 19830.460.480.02
May 19830.510.530.02
June 19830.340.370.03
July 19830.280.330.05
August 19830.450.480.03
September 19830.520.550.03
October 19830.230.250.02
November 19830.400.430.03
December 19830.310.330.02
January 19840.470.470.00
February 19840.320.330.01
March 19840.440.450.01
April 19840.240.240.00
May 19840.500.510.01
June 19840.180.190.01
July 19840.270.310.04
August 19840.280.310.03
September 19840.330.370.04
October 19840.200.230.03
November 19840.140.170.03
December 19840.100.130.03
January 19850.390.410.02
February 19850.110.110.00
March 19850.310.320.01
April 19850.230.250.02
May 19850.310.320.01
June 19850.320.340.02
July 19850.150.150.00
August 19850.260.290.03
September 19850.270.300.03
October 19850.200.210.01
November 19850.200.200.00
December 19850.320.320.00
January 19860.460.460.00
February 19860.540.550.01
March 19860.430.430.00
April 19860.410.40-0.01
May 19860.400.400.00
June 19860.270.25-0.02
July 19860.250.260.01
August 19860.250.270.02
September 19860.140.160.02
October 19860.230.240.01
November 19860.210.230.02
December 19860.310.330.02
January 19870.520.530.01
February 19870.610.60-0.01
March 19870.330.330.00
April 19870.410.38-0.03
May 19870.390.410.02
June 19870.500.530.03
July 19870.580.600.02
August 19870.350.390.04
September 19870.470.490.02
October 19870.400.410.01
November 19870.370.380.01
December 19870.620.630.01
January 19880.740.750.01
February 19880.560.590.03
March 19880.630.660.03
April 19880.580.610.03
May 19880.600.610.01
June 19880.570.600.03
July 19880.470.500.03
August 19880.540.590.05
September 19880.520.550.03
October 19880.460.500.04
November 19880.210.230.02
December 19880.470.480.01
January 19890.310.310.00
February 19890.500.510.01
March 19890.510.520.01
April 19890.470.490.02
May 19890.300.310.01
June 19890.290.300.01
July 19890.470.510.04
August 19890.470.520.05
September 19890.490.520.03
October 19890.430.440.01
November 19890.280.310.03
December 19890.510.550.04
January 19900.550.570.02
February 19900.530.540.01
March 19900.900.910.01
April 19900.690.710.02
May 19900.600.630.03
June 19900.500.530.03
July 19900.610.640.03
August 19900.390.420.03
September 19900.370.400.03
October 19900.510.520.01
November 19900.560.580.02
December 19900.570.580.01
January 19910.580.580.00
February 19910.650.650.00
March 19910.500.510.01
April 19910.660.680.02
May 19910.530.540.01
June 19910.700.700.00
July 19910.670.66-0.01
August 19910.560.560.00
September 19910.590.610.02
October 19910.370.380.01
November 19910.420.430.01
December 19910.490.500.01
January 19920.620.620.00
February 19920.560.560.00
March 19920.600.610.01
April 19920.370.390.02
May 19920.450.480.03
June 19920.380.410.03
July 19920.240.260.02
August 19920.210.220.01
September 19920.080.110.03
October 19920.170.170.00
November 19920.150.14-0.01
December 19920.360.370.01
January 19930.530.540.01
February 19930.530.540.01
March 19930.500.510.01
April 19930.410.420.01
May 19930.400.430.03
June 19930.360.400.04
July 19930.380.420.04
August 19930.250.260.01
September 19930.200.220.02
October 19930.300.320.02
November 19930.180.180.00
December 19930.330.330.00
January 19940.460.43-0.03
February 19940.190.190.00
March 19940.390.410.02
April 19940.540.560.02
May 19940.410.430.02
June 19940.570.600.03
July 19940.440.470.03
August 19940.320.330.01
September 19940.470.46-0.01
October 19940.490.510.02
November 19940.560.580.02
December 19940.500.520.02
January 19950.660.670.01
February 19950.910.930.02
March 19950.590.600.01
April 19950.610.630.02
May 19950.430.430.00
June 19950.570.56-0.01
July 19950.630.640.01
August 19950.570.580.01
September 19950.430.440.01
October 19950.570.580.01
November 19950.540.570.03
December 19950.450.450.00
January 19960.440.440.00
February 19960.630.640.01
March 19960.500.49-0.01
April 19960.510.520.01
May 19960.420.420.00
June 19960.400.410.01
July 19960.520.540.02
August 19960.650.660.01
September 19960.420.440.02
October 19960.300.300.00
November 19960.530.540.01
December 19960.550.570.02
January 19970.490.500.01
February 19970.510.530.02
March 19970.640.680.04
April 19970.510.520.01
May 19970.520.530.01
June 19970.700.720.02
July 19970.470.490.02
August 19970.520.550.03
September 19970.620.630.01
October 19970.700.700.00
November 19970.750.760.01
December 19970.750.760.01
January 19980.760.760.00
February 19981.011.040.03
March 19980.760.790.03
April 19980.770.790.02
May 19980.850.860.01
June 19980.930.940.01
July 19980.830.830.00
August 19980.800.79-0.01
September 19980.560.54-0.02
October 19980.530.530.00
November 19980.600.620.02
December 19980.720.71-0.01
January 19990.640.640.00
February 19990.790.790.00
March 19990.480.500.02
April 19990.480.480.00
May 19990.460.460.00
June 19990.540.540.00
July 19990.540.53-0.01
August 19990.460.45-0.01
September 19990.520.520.00
October 19990.500.49-0.01
November 19990.500.49-0.01
December 19990.600.58-0.02
January 20000.420.40-0.02
February 20000.740.73-0.01
March 20000.740.73-0.01
April 20000.730.72-0.01
May 20000.530.52-0.01
June 20000.590.58-0.01
July 20000.560.560.00
August 20000.540.560.02
September 20000.550.550.00
October 20000.350.360.01
November 20000.450.460.01
December 20000.460.460.00
January 20010.610.59-0.02
February 20010.610.59-0.02
March 20010.720.71-0.01
April 20010.660.660.00
May 20010.740.740.00
June 20010.680.690.01
July 20010.730.770.04
August 20010.610.620.01
September 20010.660.670.01
October 20010.590.600.01
November 20010.800.810.01
December 20010.690.720.03
January 20020.900.920.02
February 20020.890.890.00
March 20021.041.050.01
April 20020.730.730.00
May 20020.800.810.01
June 20020.700.720.02
July 20020.760.790.03
August 20020.650.670.02
September 20020.750.760.01
October 20020.640.660.02
November 20020.690.690.00
December 20020.580.610.03
January 20030.890.910.02
February 20030.700.710.01
March 20030.720.740.02
April 20030.690.710.02
May 20030.770.770.00
June 20030.620.630.01
July 20030.680.690.01
August 20030.800.820.02
September 20030.790.790.00
October 20030.830.830.00
November 20030.660.65-0.01
December 20030.890.910.02
January 20040.750.760.01
February 20040.840.880.04
March 20040.800.800.00
April 20040.760.780.02
May 20040.560.560.00
June 20040.560.590.03
July 20040.380.380.00
August 20040.570.590.02
September 20040.620.630.01
October 20040.750.750.00
November 20040.830.830.00
December 20040.670.65-0.02
January 20050.890.88-0.01
February 20050.740.72-0.02
March 20050.840.880.04
April 20050.840.840.00
May 20050.780.790.01
June 20050.800.820.02
July 20050.770.790.02
August 20050.740.750.01
September 20050.870.890.02
October 20050.880.86-0.02
November 20050.850.83-0.02
December 20050.830.830.00
January 20060.730.740.01
February 20060.860.85-0.01
March 20060.790.78-0.01
April 20060.640.650.01
May 20060.610.620.01
June 20060.780.790.01
July 20060.660.660.00
August 20060.830.850.02
September 20060.730.750.02
October 20060.760.75-0.01
November 20060.840.82-0.02
December 20060.930.90-0.03
January 20071.131.130.00
February 20070.850.870.02
March 20070.850.850.00
April 20070.890.900.01
May 20070.840.83-0.01
June 20070.740.740.00
July 20070.770.780.01
August 20070.750.74-0.01
September 20070.740.73-0.01
October 20070.700.68-0.02
November 20070.700.69-0.01
December 20070.640.63-0.01
January 20080.430.41-0.02
February 20080.490.490.00
March 20080.880.880.00
April 20080.670.670.00
May 20080.660.64-0.02
June 20080.600.600.00
July 20080.750.750.00
August 20080.540.550.01
September 20080.760.770.01
October 20080.730.71-0.02
November 20080.780.780.00
December 20080.700.700.00
January 20090.780.780.00
February 20090.680.66-0.02
March 20090.670.670.00
April 20090.740.740.00
May 20090.790.810.02
June 20090.820.820.00
July 20090.870.890.02
August 20090.770.770.00
September 20090.830.840.01
October 20090.730.750.02
November 20090.880.880.00
December 20090.810.840.03
January 20100.920.930.01
February 20100.950.970.02
March 20101.061.070.01
April 20101.011.00-0.01
May 20100.890.890.00
June 20100.790.77-0.02
July 20100.720.720.00
August 20100.730.750.02
September 20100.740.740.00
October 20100.790.790.00
November 20100.900.89-0.01
December 20100.660.65-0.01
January 20110.690.690.00
February 20110.660.670.01
March 20110.790.78-0.01
April 20110.790.76-0.03
May 20110.670.66-0.01
June 20110.730.730.00
July 20110.870.870.00
August 20110.850.850.00
September 20110.670.670.00
October 20110.720.71-0.01
November 20110.680.680.00
December 20110.670.680.01
January 20120.610.610.00
February 20120.640.63-0.01
March 20120.710.70-0.01
April 20120.820.820.00
May 20120.900.900.00
June 20120.750.770.02
July 20120.680.67-0.01
August 20120.760.760.00
September 20120.840.840.00
October 20120.870.86-0.01
November 20120.870.870.00
December 20120.680.700.02
January 20130.840.850.01
February 20130.710.710.00
March 20130.800.820.02
April 20130.660.670.01
May 20130.740.73-0.01
June 20130.810.810.00
July 20130.710.720.01
August 20130.770.800.03
September 20130.910.940.03
October 20130.770.770.00
November 20130.920.91-0.01
December 20130.820.820.00
January 20140.910.920.01
February 20140.680.700.02
March 20140.910.910.00
April 20140.920.920.00
May 20141.001.020.02
June 20140.790.800.01
July 20140.710.720.01
August 20140.900.910.01
September 20141.011.020.01
October 20140.910.90-0.01
November 20140.800.79-0.01
December 20140.950.950.00
January 20150.980.990.01
February 20151.021.020.00
March 20151.041.060.02
April 20150.860.890.03
May 20150.910.90-0.01
June 20150.900.920.02

Major Deviations 2017 vis-à-vis 2016 By Decade:

<-0.10˚C >-0.10˚C; <-0.05˚C <0.10˚C; >0.05˚C >0.10˚C
1880s014150
1890s32391
1900s02320
1910s51551
1920s0370
1930s0220
1940s02283
1950s0191
1960s0060
1970s0030
1980s0030
1990s0000
2000s0000
2010s0000
8103696
The table shows – as would be expected — that the number of 2017 vis-à-vis 2016 deviations tends to fall very strongly as we move towards more recent decades. There have been none since August 1989, when the 2017 deviation was 0.05˚C hotter than that 2016. The last month so much as 0.05˚C cooler based upon 2017 calculations vis-à-vis 2016 is as far back as the famous month of January 1950 — the most-discussed month in US historical weather forums, with record heat in the Eastern US where temperatures of 70˚F (21˚C) were recorded in New York, an extraordinary cold wave in Western Canada, and amazing warmth in the USSR east of the cold pole where Ilirney, Chukotka averaged something like nineteen degrees above normal.
Global temperature anomalies for January 1950. Note the record warmth in the east and cold in the west of both Eurasia and North America
The last month recalculated as minimally 0.10˚C hotter in 2017 vis-à-vis 2016 was July 1951, and only six have occurred since 1880. Three of these were in 1941 alone [February, October and November]
Global temperature anomalies from July 1951 courtesy of GISS Surface Temperature Analysis

The last month recalculated as at least 0.10˚C cooler in 2017 vis-à-vis 2016 estimates was November 1919, and only eight can be found. Three of these were between January and April 1917, two in four months of 1919, two in the winter of 1892/1893, and one relatively isolated case in November 1890.
Global temperature anomalies from November 1919 courtesy of GISS Surface Temperature Analysis

In fact, there are a number of groups of anomalies seen in the table:
  • July 1886 to June 1887 has been recalculated as cooler
  • February to April 1888 has been recalculated as hotter
  • June 1892 to February 1893 has been recalculated as cooler except for September to November 1892 which is recalculated as hotter
  • August 1896 to January 1897 has been recalculated as hotter
  • July 1903 to December 1904 has been recalculated as cooler
  • December 1915 to January 1916 has been recalculated as hotter
  • January to May 1917 has been recalculated as significantly cooler
  • March to July 1918 and May 1919 to January 1920 have been recalculated as cooler
  • August 1920 to May 1921 has been recalculated as hotter
  • January 1940 to December 1941 has been recalculated as significantly hotter
  • The whole period from 1942 to 1945 has been recalculated as significantly cooler
What this suggests it is not easy to say. It is possible that improved data from the war years and after account for some of these changes, given that the World War II period has seen some of the largest recalculations, as has the early months of 1917, which saw an extremely cool spring over the United States and — until May — Western Europe.