Five months (or years?) more of frustration

Today, with the news that Victoria’s new COVID-19 cases have increased by 75 compared to yesterday, the looming future for the state becomes mapped out so clearly.

Around five weeks ago, Victoria’s leaders were criticised for not opening up sooner, despite there still being an average of eight new cases in the state during the preceding week. Today, such criticism seems patently absurd with as many new COVID cases as at the March peak, and certain in ensuing days to be far more than the previous record of 111. Contrariwise, if Victoria had waited until four weeks after the last new COVID-19 case to remove restrictions in place in April and May, Melburnians would have seen life back to normal by this coming spring with zero risk of a new wave of infections. As it is, with only a portion of these restrictions removed, COVID-19 cases are again growing exponentially, and, as targeted lockdowns in major centres of COVID-19 growth have failed, Victoria stands faced with three unpleasant choices:

• a strict lockdown with all non-essential services closed until four weeks after the last new COVID-19 infection
• this will absolutely ensure that no COVID-19 whatsoever remains in the Victorian community
• to ensure the complete elimination of the virus this move would need to be accompanied by sustained high levels of testing until eight weeks (56 days) after the last new COVID-19 infection
• only this policy, although unpleasant in the short term, can ensure absolutely zero risk of another wave of infections and permit rapid, complete reopening once zero risk is attained
• short-term lockdowns and reopenings when cases have fallen merely to “manageable” levels
• this is the actual policy of the Andrews Government, but will result in severe long-term hardship for the majority of Victorians
• the certain result is a chaotic pattern – lasting many years – of lockdown after lockdown, partial reopening after partial reopening, with the virus entirely uncontrolled
• continuing reopening in face of exponential growth of COVID-19 that is certain to overwhelm the state’s medical services

Given observed rates of decay in new COVID-19 cases before the partial reopening at the end of May, it is probable that, had there been no partial reopening, it would have been around the end of August before the state reached four weeks after the last new COVID-19 case, although possible timeframes could have ranged from late July at the earliest up to late September or even later. Eight weeks after the last new COVID-19 case would have been the middle of October 2020, although a range from late August until the end of November would have been plausible.

Melbourne’s populace was frustrated with lockdowns before reopening began at the end of May, and would have found it difficult to tolerate a continued strict lockdown into August, September or even October 2020 (into whenever is four weeks after the last new infection). However, such a long lockdown, alongside constant testing and rigid quarantine, would have ensured a rapid return to normal conditions without any risk of reoccurring infections. This would have been a definite lesser evil and allowed rapid although seriously delayed return to normal life with zero risk of local COVID-19 infection. As it stands, Melbourne’s populace will almost certainly become more frustrated again with repeated lockdowns and reopenings into 2021, 2022 and further on, alongside continual spread of COVID-19.

What is already striking, and certain to be more so in the future, is that Victoria will beyond doubt remain locked down whilst all Australia’s other states and territories have eliminated COVID-19 spread, and almost certainly after basic social distancing requirements are eliminated there. Even if movement into border communities on the Victorian side of the Murray River is permitted, there will likely be no permission for movement into or out of Victoria beyond those limits once COVID-19 is eradicated from the remainder of Australia. Rather, we will simply see travelling links that exclude Melbourne and its surrounds established and maintained for many years. Long-term trends towards Melbourne’s relative growth will likely be reversed and growth transferred to other parts of Australia, although which other parts will benefit be is impossible to yet tell.