How Andrews is not following medical experts

Despite persistent hopes from Chief Medical Officer Brett Sutton, and new laws mandating face masks – very uncomfortable for me – in public places from this Thursday, there is still not the slightest sign that Victoria’s COVID-19 disaster will abate in the future. Most lockdowns have ultimately succeeded in getting case numbers down, but, two weeks in, this lockdown is the first to fail to achieve this.

In their daily morning speeches, Premier Andrews and Chief Medical Officer Sutton may well believe that compulsory masks in public will finally produce a decline in case numbers two weeks after the lockdown began and with outbreaks developing in “open” areas of Geelong and its surrounding rural shires. Two weeks later is when the decline really set in last time round, so one might not be too pessimistic at first sight.

However, the problem is that, ever since the crisis emerged, it has become clearer and clearer that Andrews has not been adequately following the best medical advice ever since the Cedar Meats outbreak at the beginning of May. At the end of May 2020, medical experts advised Andrews to wait until the end of June before easing restrictions by such moves as gradually opening cafés, libraries and swimming pools. However, pressure from business and peer pressure from other states where the virus was properly eradicated overwhelmed Andrews and caused him to ease restrictions when COVID-19 was still active in the Victorian community. Nevertheless, the first two weeks of eased restrictions looked promising for Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s “suppression” strategy, as numbers fell below even what they were in the last part of the first lockdown.

Then, of course, disaster struck, as botched hotel quarantine allowed the virus to escape and spread far more rapidly than it did the first time. When Premier Andrews initially announced lockdown measures in March, SARS-CoV-2 cases in Victoria were almost all from foreign sources. However, Andrews continued trying merely suppress the virus in “hotbeds”, whilst movement of and contact between employed people spread COVID amongst Melburninans at an exceedingly rapid rate. Even when Metropolitan Melbourne and Mitchell Shire returned to Stage 3 lockdown two weeks ago, as the World Socialist Web Site demonstrated, so many businesses were kept open that the virus spread within the community exactly as beforehand – with extreme rapidity.

Apart from the WSWS – which my mother and brother view as a completely unreliable source – there have been others who have called for closure of many more businesses. Professor Tony Blakely – upon whose research the WSWS article is based – was the first to argue that Andrews should not follow the “suppression” strategy of Scott Morrison, and should aim for elimination by:

1. Strong and decisive leadership with strategic clarity. 
2. Convening an advisory group of experts in the elimination strategy and COVID-19 public health response.
3. Closing all schools until the daily rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection without a known source falls. 
4. Tightening the definition of essential shops to remain open.
5. Requiring mask-wearing in indoor environments where 1.5m physical distancing cannot be ensured.
6. Tightening the definition of essential workers and work. 
7. Requiring mask-wearing by essential workers whenever they are in close contact with people other than those in their immediate “household bubble”.
8. Ensuring financial and other support to businesses, community and other groups most affected by more stringent stay-at-home and lockdown requirements. 
9. Further strengthening contact tracing to ensure the majority of notifications (and their close contacts) are interviewed within 24 hours and placed in isolation if necessary.
10. Extending suspension of international arrivals into Victorian quarantine

Apart from requiring mask-wearing, Andrews refuses to do this, because businesses would lose profits vis-à-vis the current situation where they effectively operate as if there was no lockdown, and workers would feel very insecure if they did not know when they might return to having an income.

The present lockdown is the first in the world to completely fail to reduce numbers, and the economic and mental costs to lower class Melburnians will be severe if this failure continues indefinitely, which is virtually certain, despite the fact that many workers accept having to work in an unsafe environment to get food on their tables. The WSWS policy of expropriating bosses – or a more moderate policy requiring workers to be paid full wages until whenever is four to six weeks after the last new case – is in many ways just, but unspeakable to mainstream parties largely funded by big business. Any other policy based around closing all businesses except medicine or food stores risks workers losing jobs and sustenance permanently, although it has worked in countries with larger welfare systems than Australia possesses. The present policy, with continual extreme community transmission and no return to normal until antiviral treatments be developed, risks severe political reaction, although no election is due until late 2022.