The 2012/2013 Rock Hall ballot: a new dawning?

Over the past three years, I have done predictions for the 2011/2012, 2010/2011 and 2009/2010 ballots for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. I will admit I have never been remotely correct with a very few exceptions, but I still enjoy the work, especially as Future Rock Legends have been as slow as I have looking at the issue.

When I first looked at the future of the Rock Hall around the time of the 2005/2006 ballot, I always thought that the 2012/2013 ballot would be something of a turning point because I felt that it would mark the date at which underground political hip hop entered the mainstream consciousness of Blue America with the rise of Public Enemy and N.W.A., who were as central to the Bush Senior Era as bands like the Rolling Stones and Jimi Hendrix were to the 1960s. There was also key grunge artist Soundgarden, whose eligibility has been put forward without results since they did have a recording out on a 1986 compilation.

Some critics, however, doubt that an aging Nominating Committee will actually take advantage of the creativity of the Bush Senior Era and will focus on a few commercially successful artists that at least had critical respectability, along with a backlog that fails to shrink in size as it gets more and more remote into the past.

I am not sure that the Nominating Committee is opposed to rap, even though it has been slower that I would have guessed half a decade ago at inducting those rap artists one would have expected to see on Rock Hall ballots.

I predict that the following eleven artists will be on the 2012/2013 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame ballot:

• The Shangri-Las: A group oddly overlooked for many years that both epitomised the girl-group sound with such songs as “Leader of the Pack” and later covered by such heavy rock groups as Aerosmith, the Shangri-Las would on the face of it be expected to have been at least seriously considered much earlier: they have after all been eligible since 1990/1991. Perhaps confusion over what side of “women in rock” they really represent has hindered them, but now it seems the Shangri-Las should ahve a real chance.
• Captain Beefheart: Now deceased but still unique, Beefheart has been part of the backlog for two decades without a nomination. The fact that the MC5 and New York Dolls have not recently been nominated suggests some may think a new name will need to be tried, and Beefheart is one who might draw attention if he were nominated. Many people know the name but not his music, though Trout Mask Replica remains an icon.
• Yes: A much-respected band in a maligned genre, Yes is one group I have been expecting on a ballot soon after the induction of Genesis. In some ways, they were a more respected group even though they did go the way of their contemporaries after the “punk revolution” and tightening of the belts by record companies. Their reputation is good enough that a place on the ballot does not seem improbable.
• War: The rap revolution ought in theory to revive interest in 1960s and 1970s funk that was the precursor to rap. Although War, largely arising out of the Animals’ Eric Burdon, are not a classic “funk” band in that sense, they do stand as one of the most important “soul” artists of the 1970s. Having been nominated twice makes one think War must have a good shot at getting on the ballot again, especially with a sampling compilation album Rap Declares War at the height of the Bush Senior Era.
• KISS: If you are looking for a metal group for this year's ballot, it is tough since key underground metal artists like Slayer, Sepultura and Pantera stand so far from the Nominating Committee. KISS, however, have already been nominated once and seem the most likely metal group to balance out this year’s ballot. Their commercial success and over the years, improved critical reputation stand KISS in quite good stead to eventually get in.
• Donna Summer: As the queen of disco and often cited as a snub, Summer has been on the ballot often enough to suggest she will get another chance even at a period much more difficult for established candidates than was the period from 2002/2003 to 2011/2012.
• The Cure: Having reached the 2011/2012 ballot twenty-five years after they grew to prominence in the United States, but before their number two hit “Love Song” is telling in their favour. As the first band to popularise the “goth” image the Cure are of considerable cultural significance, and they had a definite if not crucial role in the culture of the period.
• Sonic Youth: Although it took time before they were discussed, they were a band who captured attention by their remarkable guitar tunings and pop hooks that allowed a band generally viewed as “noise rock” to sign with a major label and in 1994, even dent the Billboard Top 40. Their influence, both in terms of women-in-music and in new guitar sounds, is such that it woudl be hard to see Sonic Youth missing out as the Bush Senior generation emerges.
• LL Cool J: The first of the major rappers to emerge commercially, LL Cool J has already been nominated twice and it seems like it will only take a couple more nominations before he is elected as the rap section of the backlog disappears. Many see LL Cool J as the first “new school” rap artist - preceding the political and gangsta rappers by two years with Radio - and such acclaim furthers his chances.
• Public Enemy: Not only the most political and most influential of all the hip hop artists of the Bush Senior Era, but also successful commercially with four Top 20 albums in the early 1990s. Chuck D and Flavor Flav were icons of the generation coming of age during the Bush Senior Era, rivalled only by Metallica. Rolling Stone, too, lavished praise on Public Enemy’s late 1980s and early 1990s albums, which only confirms them as the premier chance for the class of 2012/2013.
• N.W.A.: Because they burned out badly after one famous album in Straight Outta Compton, N.W.A. never achieved the fame or infamy of Public Enemy, but they were equally important to the rap revolution of the Bush Senior Era. Where Public Enemy focused on politics, N.W.A. combined this with the gangster lifestyle of so many blacks to create the controversial genre of “gangsta rap”, which led to calls for censorship in the 1990s.

BUBBLING UNDER:

If the eleven artists listed above do not make the 2012/2013 ballot, then it will probably because some of these make the list:

• The Spinners: A popular funk group of the 1970s long ignored by thsoe in authority, the Spinners’ commercial success has seen their fame not appreciated by the Nominating Committee until recently, when they were nominated without success in 2011/2012. The more competitive atmosphere of 2012/2013 may not favour them, but they should not be ruled out.
• Dick Dale: As the original “guitar god”, Dale has attracted much attention even though he never had any commercial success. His influence on more famous stars such as Jimi Hendrix and Jimmy Page, however, is a very good reason for Dale’s being enshrined, and his consideration after a long period (he has been eligible since 1988/1989) and the Nominating Committee may be keen on recognising the first so-called “guitar god”.
• Joe Tex: Previously though of as a certain induction soon after several nominations, Tex may well be drifting away from the radar of the Nominating Committee with the rap revolution to be accounted for - this even though some have though Tex’s style of singing to influence rap and that he was a rival to first-time inductee James Brown.
• The Monkees: Apparently vetoed by some in the Nominating Committee, but the Monkees have long been viewed as a severe snub even though some regard them as a joke. They were the best-known “teen pop” group during the 1960s, and their members later had success as solo artists in the 1970s. Given that some in the Nominating Committee have long voted for the Monkees, it would not be impossible to see 2012/2013 as a year for them.
• The Sir Douglas Quintet: Their “Tex Mex” sound won them and leader Doug Sahm critical acclaim and a longtime cult following, which clearly has had them viewed as a crucially important band in the development of country rock during the 1970s. They reached the ballot in 2005/2006, so one should certainly look at them.
• T. Rex: One artist whom I have expected to see on the ballot soon with their critical reputation and status as the moniker for the glam movement, T. Rex are only doubtful because of their “one hit wonder” status for “Get It On” in the United States. However, the status of their album Electric Warrior with Rolling Stone as number 160 on their (disparaged) Top 500 ought to dismiss such claims - even its cover art has been ranked as some of the best ever.
• Chic: Six places on the ballot without an induction is questionable: being cited as an influence my most commercially successful bands of the 1980s makes them of importance to that era, which may lessen their chances in 2012/2013 and later. Voters could neglect Chic forever, but its hard to see how one of the most respected groups in a movement that shaped the late 1970s just as much as acclaimed punk could be out of the running.
• Black Flag: If they get in Black Flag would - even including the Velvets - be the least commercially successful group to ever do so, but their influence on music is of great importance. Their sheer aggression was a total stripping down and hardening of rock, yet when combined with elements of progressive rock it shaped the sound of such bands as Metallica and Megadeth, and also such post-rockers as Slint.
• Afrika Bambaataa: As the rap era gets into full swing with the 2012/2013 newly eligibles, Afrika Bambaataa - already on the ballot in 2007/2008 - would have a very good chance of being enshrined as one of the first pioneers in rap with “Planet Rock”. Their relative lack of commercial success may not be an issue with so many critics choosing to ignore the commercial artists of the Reagan Era.
• The Replacements: Although they never reached major commercial success the Replacements were and remain one of the most critically acclaimed bands of the Reagan Era, and did make the transition to a major label much more effectively than Minneapolis rivals Hüsker Dü. Their chances do depend on whether Reagan-Era underground acts will be acknowledged, but Richie Unterberger once said they had a real chance.
• Boogie Down Productions: Though not as critically acclaimed as N.W.A., they are generally regarded as an important pioneer of “gangsta rap” with their debut album Criminal Minded - which notably received a review from avant garne webzine Dusted, suggesting even today they have hip credibility. Then there is leader KRS-One rapping for R.E.M. on “Radio Song” as further evidence BDP might be on the radar.
• The Pixies: Regarded as an essential influence on Nirvana and the first of the American “alternative” groups to become a big seller - though they were much bigger in Europe - the Pixies are a group whose sales are considered questionable for the Hall, though no alternative group before them sold as well. It is still tempting to think them as too “underground”, but then their critical reputation and influence might be enough for a chance eventually.

My prediction for the 2011/2012 Rock Hall ballot

For the past two years, I have during each winter predicted what artists will be inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame the following summer and autumn. I will admit my predictions have been terribly wrong: for both 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 I got a mere two candidates right. Still, I feel as though I should continue making these predictions since I enjoy learning from the debates that result and from people with more experience dealing with the influence of important rock artists - which I never saw during my cloistered childhood in suburban Melbourne.

The 2011/2012 Rock Hall ballot is highly notable because of its critical quality for backlog artists who have been seriously considered for some time but have not been elected in or even reached the ballot. In 2012/2013, a number of critical artists of the radical Bush Senior era (the rap revolution) become eligible and for a number of years I have strongly felt 2012/2013 shall see more newly eligible artists than any year since the “punk revolution” class of 2002/2003, when the success of newer artists became rather constrained by the conflict between critical reputation and the stiflingly restrictive policies of major labels and commercial radio, which punk produced in the US.

There is at this stage not the slightest evidence that any artist newly eligible for 2010/2011 was ever discussed by the Nominating Committee. 2011/2012, however, I have always seen as having two artists certain to be considered very seriously in Guns‘n‘Roses and Soundgarden. Both of these groups were key artists in the late 1980s heavy rock scene: Guns‘n‘Roses recycled the scariest moments of rock, whilst Soundgarden made heavy rock more melodic than anyone before without losing emotion. There is also Salt‘n‘Pepa, whom Digital Dream Door said deserved it but of whom I have no belief they could be inducted before rappers on the current backlog, especially as they lack credibility in critical terms. Eric B and Rakim are a little better respected critically but are also unlikely to get in before backlog rap artists.

In looking at the 2011/2012 Rock hall ballot, I will assume the Nominating Committee is not going to allow any further artists on the ballot as it has been doing lately. The effect of key Bush Senior Era artists starting to become eligible will not really be seen until 2012/2013, and my predictions are for the following fifteen artists to make the 2011/2012 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame ballot:

- Chuck Willis: A long-praised pioneer rhythm and blues artist with hits “C.C. Rider”, “Betty and Dupree”, “Hang Up My Rock and Roll Shoes” and the number nine “What Am I Living For”, Willis may be undergoing a major revival that ought to see him on this year’s ballot. He influenced Buddy Holly and Otis Redding in later years.

- Joe Tex: Nominated for the fourth time in 2010/2011, Joe Tex’s vocal style has been seen by many as a precursor to the spoken-word vocals of rap. He was not commercially successful until a decade after he first recorded, but in the late 1960s Tex was a key performed in the soul arena and it is likely he will keep getting chances until induction.

- The Five Satins: In the shuffle of vocal groups, the Satins, chiefly known for “In The Still of the Night”, should have a strong chance of making the ballot for the first time. They defined the meaning of “doo wop” with their chief hits “In the Still of the Night” and “To the Aisle”, and influenced many later vocal groups.

- The Moody Blues: The first progressive rock group - later like so many to have overblown pop hits after the “punk revolution” tightened up record company and commercial radio playlists - the Moody Blues seem likely to have a chance this year after Genesis were inducted for 2009/2010. They have often been critically derided but writers like Mark Prindle suggest this is less general than I thought.

- Donovan: The second long-eligible artist to be nominated despite never having been seriously discussed by the Nominating Committee after Leonard Cohen in 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 (inducted), Donovan has long been seen by outsiders as deserving of the Rock Hall due to his success as part of the psychedelic Zeitgeist in the 1960s, although he has not retained a great critical reputation and has recorded only four albums since 1976.

- Captain Beefheart: His death, if we look at the history of reappraisals of dead rock musicians, could well help him to get onto the ballot after having been for a long time considered without a nomination. His disciple Tom Waits’ 2010/2011 induction would give Beefheart a much better chance of getting in the Hall if he is nominated than I thought beforehand, too.

- Laura Nyro: Being a big fan and a semi-regular at her sites, I need to be careful, but despite the reasonable and severe criticism of her nomination by Sampson, it does seem likely that her influence - which is I must admit concentrated outside the mainstream of commercial and critical success - seems to be seen as strong enough to keep her on the ballot whilst the Bush Senior era revolutionaries are ineligible. It may not be enough to get her in whilst she has her chance, but so original an artist would be most welcome in the Hall.

- The J. Geils Band: One which seems likely more because of the enormous support from Dave Marsh, Steve Van Zandt and Jon Landau than because of their critical or even commercial reputation, the J. Geils Band (actually fronted by Peter Wolf who later had a solo career and co-wrote “We Built This City” with Bernie Taupin) are widely rumoured to be a frontrunner for 2011/2012 induction so I cannot leave them off despite their lack of influence and not even a single Grammy for their popularity.

- KISS: One group on the Rock Hall backlog which has had a lot of pressure in its favour, KISS have often been seen as unlikely. However, their immense commercial success in the 1970s and their essential role in the development of pop metal makes KISS an important part of rock and roll history.

- Chic: More critically respected (and in my own experience more listenable) than most acts of the disco era, Chic have been, like Sabbath and the Stooges, consistently on the ballot but opposed by a sufficient number of voters to prevent them from getting in. It seems that in this circumstance it is almost impossible for an artist to be fully rejected, so Chic would have to be likely.

- The B‘52s: New Wave is one genre of substantial popular support which I have not otherwise catered for on this ballot, and the B‘52s, as the most commercially successful act form that genre not in the Hall of Fame, have a good chance this year. Although their true leader was keyboardist Fred Schneider, it would be interesting to see how the presence of two women affects their chances.

- Afrika Bambaataa: The most important hip hop pioneer with their song “Planet Rock”, Afrika Bambataa have long been the only artist first eligible in 2005/2006 to have had a chance. He may not be well-known to the general public beyond his signature song, but that signature song, which was number two hundred and thirty seven on Rolling Stone’s Top 500 songs, is sufficient to make his place in rock history and give him one nomination already. Another seems surely likely.

- The Beastie Boys: Essential as one of the first artists to popularise rap despite being the only significant white rappers until Eminem emerged in the 2000s, the Beasties are also of critical importance in the way in which their sampling of metal groups like AC/DC paved the way for the link between metal and rap that is an often overlooked part of the radical Bush Senior era culture. They were nominated in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011, so it would be predicted the Beasties will appear again this year.

- The Red Hot Chili Peppers: As one of the premier modern rock acts, the Chili Peppers were nominated in 2009/2010 but missed out in 2010/2011. However, it would be hard to see them not having another shot in the near future, despite the fact that the Nominating Committee membership, now better known than before, does not have anyone under forty who might have been exposed to more modern genres of music.

- Guns‘n‘Roses: Although extremely derivative in their musical style, Guns‘n‘Roses were critically and popularly praised during the late 1980s for recycling the scarier moments of the Rolling Stones and 1970s Aerosmith. They attracted a lot of controversy in what was to be a highly controversial age with the cover of their mega-selling album Appetite for Destruction, still acclaimed as one of the best heavy metal albums ever. Their reputation as recyclers of what the critics who make up the Nominating Committee see as the essence of rock give them a strong chance.

BUBBLING UNDER:

If the fifteen artists listed above fail to make the 2011/2012 ballot, it will likely by because one or more of the following artists gets on:

- The “5” Royales: On the ballot in 2001/2002 and 2003/2004, the “5” Royales are the most famous of the doo-wop groups so beloved of the Nominating Committee that have not actually made it. Another chance may well be coming.

- Dick Dale: A commercially unsuccessful guitar god, regarded as the prototype of the whole persona, I have tended to see Dale as a left-field choice for the Rock Hall backlog for some time. With no genuine guitar gods on my list, this may provide Dick Dale with a space of his own.

- The Paul Butterfield Blues Band: Described as the inventor of jamming in a rock context with their eleven-minute “East West” and eight minute “Work Song”, Butterfield and his band have already reached the 2005/2006 ballot despite never reaching the Top 50 on Billboard, which shows the influence they had in the following few years. Another nomination for somebody so influential on hippie jam bands is not improbable.

- The MC5: After the Stooges and the Velvet Underground, the MC5 are the third in a trio of critically lauded underground bands who were the ancestors of the “punk revolution” in the late 1970s. Nominated in 2002/2003, the induction of the Stooges has not yet given their Detroit brethren another chance, but it may soon.

- Deep Purple: Often thought of as a very bad snub by the Hall, the problem with Purple is the small output of their classic Mark II lineup and the number of personnel changes they have had. If it could be decided to induct only the Mark II line-up they would have the most genuien chance.

- Jethro Tull: If as happened in 2010/2011 the Rock Hall in the absence of newly eligible candidates chooses to put one from deep in the backlog, Tull would have a strong chance. The presence of a small number of instantly recognised monuments from early in their career (“Living in the Past”, “Bungle in the Jungle”, Thick as a Brick, Aqualung) may help them over arguably better qualified candidates.

- The Last Poets: Will the movement towards the beginnings of the Bush Senior era and the rap revolution lead to a re-consideration of a key prototype of hip-hop, who reached number twenty-nine on Billboard with their first album but did not draw attention until rap’s influence became obvious? Maybe, I say, given the way Rolling Stone has focused on rap to much criticism in recent years.

- Donna Summer: The most successful act of the frequently derided disco era, Summer has already had many nominations without an induction. Such a situation has been observed ever since the Rock Hall was first created to ultimately give all but the oldest artists (who thus might not be known to younger voters) a certain pass into the Hall.

- The Cure: An artist who may be passing into favoritism if there is any turnover in the Nominating Committee, the Cure even as it is have a lot going for them as the first “alternative” (I can testify from record stores in the 1990s) group to reach genuine mainstream status.

- Janet Jackson: Although eligible for some time, the way in which Donovan was considered from obscurity last year makes one wonder whether, with her first acknowledged album Control reaching its twenty-fifth anniversary this year, the Nominating Committee might wish to re-consider the most commercially successful singles artist in the US over the late 1980s, 1990s and 2000s?

- Soundgarden: The first prominent grunge group, with a unique sense of melody, lyrics that symbolise the Bush Senior era, and a rhythmic complexity that distinguished them from other bands in the genre, Soundgarden have long had critical and commercial respect but the question of whether they are too “metal” for those in the Nominating Committee looms large over their certain credentials.

A prediction for the 2010/2011 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame ballot

Last year, I did a prediction for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame ballot for 2009/2010. I will confess that it was completely wrong with the exception of the Red Hot Chili Peppers and the Chantels, neither of whom were voted in. Even among my “Bubbling Under” artists only two were nominated: Donna Summer, the Stooges and the Hollies, the latter two being voted in. The fact that there seems to be extraordinarily little activity discussing who will or should get in to the Hall for 2010/2011 makes me nonetheless eager to consider who the likely inductees will be.

In 2009/2010, the Hall of Fame increased the number of artists on the ballot from nine to twelve. For 2010/2011 it is apparently considering reducing the number of years of eligibility from twenty-five to twenty - a move I wholeheartedly disapprove of. Digital Dream Door, in an email to me, said that there is no artist “remotely deserving” who is newly eligible for 2010/2011, so that we are left with looking at artists already discussed by the Nominating Committee as of 2009/2010.

I predict that the following twelve artists will comprise the ballot for the 2010/2011 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame:

- The “5” Royales: The Rock Hall has shown a very strong tendency to “juggle” around many candidates from most black genres - which lack the respect of the white critical establishment but which are undoubtedly of major influence. The “5” Royales were nominated in both 2001/2002 and 2003/2004, so they undoubtedly have support from the Nominating Committee and with the need of another vocal group and somebody from before the FM radio revolution of the late 1960s they are a likely shot this year.

- The Chantels: Already nominated last year, they look likely to obtain another chance as the only vocal harmony group remaining for discussion. Girl-group pop, like doo-wop, is an area which one does not generally see discussed by most critics but which is still a very important part of rock as Digital Dream Door notes. Under a genre-based approach the Chantels would seem inevitable on the ballot whether voted in or not.

- Randy Newman: Although Randy did not make the ballot for a second time after I predicted he would last year, reading about the way in which the Rock Hall Nominating Committee seems to be restructuring its choices makes me think Randy must have a chance for a second nomination. His consistent critical acclaim from Rolling Stone is a very important factor in his favour.

- Deep Purple: With the Hall seemingly wanting to reconsider styles for a long time rejected by the critical establishment, Deep Purple appear a very natural choice to represent hard rock or heavy metal. The trouble with them is so many changes of line-up, but the classic group of Ian Gillan, Richie Blackmore, Jon Lord, Roger Glover and Ian Paice did enough with Deep Purple in Rock, Fireball and Machine Head in defining heavy metal that those three albums could easily be judged sufficient for a place.

- Yes: With the induction of Genesis and the Hall aiming for a “style-by-style” approach, Yes seem a natural choice. They have even been cited as an influence by such bands as Metallica, which will not hurt their chances, nor would Rick Wakeman’s links with Sabbath.

- The MC5: With the Stooges finally inducted after I had expected them to be neglected after repeated failures, it would only be natural for the Nominating Committee to turn to their protopunk contemporaries. The MC5 have already reached the 2002/2003 ballot, and it is very tempting to think that this could be their year for actual induction - twenty years after vocalist Rob Tyner died.

- War: Already nominated in 2008/2009, War would fit the bill for a black rock act, though they like Sly and the Family Stone were in fact multi-ethnic. I expected them to get in in 2008/2009, and with the lack of major early funk acts for 2009/2010 it would seem that War would be likely to get another chance with considerable hope of being inducted. The problem of ex-Animal Eric Burdon leaving the band after two albums seems unlikely to affect them.

- Donna Summer: Like the Stooges before and alongside her, she has been a perennial choice of the Nominating Committee who has great trouble managing to get in. Also like the Stooges, I had doubted her staying in line but the way in which Summer got on last year suggests that they have nor given and are unlikely to give up on her.

- The Cure: The manner in which Charles Crossley breaks down the nominations for the 2009/2010 Rock Hall gives me a suggestion that the Cure will be used to represent post-punk or even goth. They are the only band in either genre except Depeche Mode with sufficient recognition to have a chance. so Crossley’s suggestion and their increasing recognition in the late 1980s means this could be their year?

- Def Leppard: The discussion of Bon Jovi gives me the impression that those in the Nominating Committee recognise the cultural impact of pop metal enough to warrant an artist from that genre being inducted. Def Leppard are undoubtedly the most important group in that genre, and would thus be favoured for a berth on the ballot in this scene.

- The Beastie Boys: With the approach of the twenty-fifth anniversary of their classic album Licensed to Ill, they seem to the most likely rap candidate before Public Enemy and N.W.A. become eligible in 2012/2013. Were extremely innovative and rarely followed in sampling metal acts such as Black Sabbath, Slayer and AC/DC and have a similarly unique status as a white rap band. They continued to be commercially successful into the 1990s.

- The Red Hot Chili Peppers: They were overlooked in 2009/2010, but the very fact that the Nominating Committee put them onto the ballot make me sure the Chili Peppers will be inducted soon. Whether Jack Irons and Hillel Slovak are inducted with the “classic” lineup of Kiedis, Frusciente, Flea and Chad Smith is far from certain, but it is hard not to see them on the ballot.

Bubbling Under

If the artists listed above do not make the ballot, it will probably be because the following artists make the list:

- Darlene Love: She failed on the 2009/2010 ballot, but appears to be popular with many in the Nominating Committee such as Steven van Zandt so that she may well have a serious chance this year, especially with the Committee’s characteristic tendencies to juggle around a set of artists.

- The Paul Butterfield Blues Band: Already nominated in 2005/2006, they could fulfil the role of blues in the ballot - one I have not filled in myself. Their role in transforming rock guitar into an improvised format made them highly influential on artists like inductees The Grateful Dead and Allman Brothers Band, but they never had a Top 50 album or any hit single so they might fall short with commercially-oriented sections of the voting body.

- The Monkees: The induction of the Hollies makes me think that they are a likely shot, although they have been consistently disfavoured by many in the Nominating Committee their vital role in popularising video as a medium for music ought to be of very valuable importance - as should their many hit singles.

- T. Rex: They have been long discussed by the Nominating Committee and their critical popularity as a representative of the glam rock movement, along with significant influence on many indie bands and noticeable popular success via the recognisable “Get It On” makes them a very likely chance especially with the Stooges inducted and no other glam band considered.

- Dr. John: Extremely influential upon the singer/songwriter movement (most notably cited Van Morrison), so that if the Hall wishes to acknowledge this unique sector of rock history, Dr. John would seem very likely since he has already been discussed before for a long time and this year could easily be his chance.

- Kraftwerk: Although almost completely neglected by the Nominating Committee since reaching the ballot in 2002/2003, Kraftwerk should not be neglected if the Hall thinks it ought to acknowledge genres of rock missed in the past two decades. As popularisers of electronic music, Kraftwerk are the only potential choice in their genre and that gives them a chance.

- Chic: Perennial candidates even though they have not been inducted on five tries since 2002/2003, Chic seem certain to be here forever until enough voters put them in. Their recognition may be limited to a few hits like “Le Freak”, but the importance of such musicians as Nile Rogers and Tony Thompson gives them a serious chance unless the Nominating Committee decides they have too many enemies within the voting body to get in.

- The B‘52s: The most popular New Wave group not yet inducted, the B‘52s have the recognisable songs that might well appeal to a Nominating Committee that wants to find a branch of rock not discussed in 2009/2010. Doubts exist because they had two incarnations before and after Ricky Wilson died of AIDS, which will diminish voters’ perceptions of them as one group.

- Afrika Bambaataa: The most important artist in “old school” hip hop and the only one to have reached a ballot, Afrika Bambaataa is clearly acknowledged as a major founder of the only genre to maintain both critical and popular acclaim since the “punk revolution”, which may well give him a serious shot in a year with no new chances.

- Stevie Ray Vaughan: “Modern” blues guitarist of tremendous acclaim for his live work and albums before being killed in a helicopter crash, Stevie Ray Vaughan was discussed by the Nominating Committee during 2009/2010 and is generally touted as a certainty. Some question over influence but a genuine chance this year with no worthy new candidates.

Keltner analysis of undiscussed Rock Hall Artists: Joy Division

The site A List of Things Thrown Five Minutes Ago, discusses various artists' credentials for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.

After finishing my analysis of the Rock Hall backlog, I always intended to analyse artists who have never been discussed by the Nominating Committee, but still might have credentials to justify induction. The aim of the process is to find out whether, on the basis of the Keltner list for a Hall of Fame, the Nominating Committee really is completely ignoring artists who have undeniable credentials to be in the Hall.

I do admit that there are some problems with the criteria, especially given known biases of the Nominating Committee and how they effect who is already in the Hall, but still I cannot see any better alternative.

I have so far done six Keltner tests on undiscussed artists:

• The Smiths (eligible 2008/2009, not worthy)
• Slayer (eligible 2008/2009, worthy)
• Sonic Youth (eligible 2007/2008, worthy)
• Janet Jackson (eligible 2007/2008, worthy)
• Steve Earle (eligible 2007/2008, not worthy)
• Hüsker Dü (eligible 2006/2007, not worthy)
• Dire Straits (eligible 2003/2004, not worthy)
  

My next artist, first eligible in 2003/2004, is Joy Division. They formed in 1977 in Salford as a reaction to the Sex Pistols' shows in Manchester. Guitarist Bernard Sumner and bassist Peter Hook were the initial members, and were soon joined by vocalist Ian Curtis, who when Sumner and Hook met them had

"HATE"

on the back of his jacket. Terry Mason joined as drummer, and the band maned themselves Warsaw after a song from David Bowie's album Low. After a single gig, Mason became the band's manager and Tony Tabac, the Steve Brotherdale, joined as a drummer, only to be replaced because he wanted Curtis to join his other band Panik.

When they asked for a replacement drummer, there was only one response, a schoolmate of Curtis in Steve Morris. Because another London punk band was called Warsaw Pakt, at the start of 1978 the band renamed themselves Joy Division after the prostitution wing of a Nazi concentration camp. Their debut EP, An Ideal for a Living, was released at the beginning of June 1978, but during that period Joy Division made many other recordings that were never issued. They contributed in September to a compilation EP titled Short Circuit and very soon after signed with Factory Records and recorded along with the Durutti Column, John Dowie and Cabaret Voltaire for A Factory Sampler, the label's debut release.

After this Joy Division began work on their first full-length album Unknown Pleasures. Released in 1979, it was critically acclaimed from the beginning, but failed to sell even in the UK. Since that time, however, it has become one of the most acclaimed albums of its era.

Following the release of Unknown Pleasures, Joy Division had a number of appearances on BBC2 television and made a nationwide tour during the autumn of 1979.

They then released the single “Transmission” during November and the devoted following they developed earned them the nickname of “cult with no name”. The beginning of 1980 saw the band tour Europe, but Ian Curtis experienced tonic–clonic seizures, and lack of sleep and long hours completely destabilised him. The latter half of March saw Joy Division record their second album, Closer, and May saw them planning to tour the United States for the first time.

However, on the eighteenth of May 1980, all Joy Division’s plans were thwarted immediately when vocalist Ian Curtis committed suicide. He had been diagnosed as an epileptic in 1979, and had been taken ill earlier that year. By May, Curtis was suffering from a failed marriage and he hanged himself after visiting his wife on the seventeenth.

Following Curtis’ suicide, interest in Joy Division’s music continued to rise, and Closer peaked at number six on the British albums chart and later charted even higher in New Zealand. The single “Love Will Tear Us Apart” charted also in Australia. The remaining members of Joy Division, who had vowed before Curtis’ suicide that they would change the name of the band if he left, continued with Morris’ girlfriend and later wife Gillian Gilbert as New Order. (New Order might themselves have some case to be in the Rock Hall, and some have suggested that they could be combined with Joy Division for a more viable Rock Hall candidacy, though nobody in Cleveland has ever thought of this and probably never will.)

An evaluation of Joy Division's Rock Hall credentials based on the Keltner criteria, which actually come from the Baseball Hall of Fame follows.

1) Were Joy Division ever regarded as the best artist in rock music? (Did anybody, while Joy Division were active, ever seriously suggest Joy Division were the best artist in rock music?): This is very doubtful. Joy Division had many rivals in terms of critical acclaim and name-dropping by musicians amongst the post-punk bands of the late 1970s, and at no time did they really stand out from such bands as Television, Wire or X, plus there was such bands as proto-thrashers Motörhead and hardcore punks Black Flag to compete with even if purely artistic merit is one’s criterion.

2) Were Joy Division ever the best artist in rock music in its genre?: The same thing, in essence, applies here. Even after Lloyd and Verlaine split up, there were such new bands as X and Wire emerging to equal them or nearly do so. Then there are such lesser-known and even less commercially successful bands as Pere Ubu and The Pop Group who were even more artistically adventurous and difficult to listen to, and who writers like David Keenan and Piero Scaruffi have considered as definitely superior.

3) Was any member of Joy Division ever considered the best at his instrument?: No. Ian Curtis’ despairing lyrics might have been viewed as outstanding, but none of the band's members have dominated polls for lists of best at their individual instruments.

4) Did Joy Division have an impact on a number of other artists?: Yes. Their dark, brooding sound is cited as the key to understanding first-generation U2 and their use of electronic rhythms inspired the mainstream emergence of groups like The Cure who began at the same time, and as Joe S. Harrington points out, later even The Smiths.

5) Were Joy Division good enough that they could play regularly after passing their prime?: No. They disbanded when Ian Curtis committed suicide, and even if we consider New Order as a successor to them, New Order did not play after they began declining in the early 1990s.

6) Are Joy Division the very best artist in history that is not in the Hall of Fame?: Certainly not. They had a very brief career that despite its considerable influence in the world of electronic music and the development of synth-pop cannot be considered of overwhelming significance artistically compared to many other bands like the MC5, Captain Beefheart or Can. Nor were they at all commercially successful in the United States.

7) Are most bands who have a comparable recording history and impact in the Hall of Fame?: No. Even with the 2009/2010 induction of the Stooges, most of the important critically slaved alternative bands remain out of the Hall of Fame. One can list Big Star, Television, Wire, the Buzzcocks, Hüsker Dü, the Replacements, Black Flag and the Misfits have rarely been considered.

8) Is there any evidence to suggest that Joy Division were significantly better or worse than is suggested by their statistical records?: There is little to say here. Ian Curtis' personal problems were in no way unique for a post-punk band, and there is nothing of note that might have influence on one's judgment.

9) Is Joy Division the best artist in its genre that is eligible for the Hall of Fame?: in the field of synth-pop, yes artistically as they were ahead even of Depeche Mode who have already been discussed by the Nominating Committee. However, Joy Division were too experimental at large to be considered a pop group, and as I have said in 6), they cannot be seen as the most essential omission from underground rock groups eligible for thw Hall.

10) How many #1 singles/gold records did Joy Division have? Did Joy Division ever win a Grammy award? If not, how many times was Joy Division nominated?: Joy Division never dented the Billboard Top 200 whilst active, and even in Europe and New Zealand where they did have some significant success, they did not have anything approaching a number one single or album.

11) How many Grammy-level songs/albums did Joy Division have? For how long of a period did Joy Division dominate the music scene? How many Rolling Stone covers did Joy Division appear on? Did most bands with this sort of impact go into the Hall of Fame?: As said before, Joy Division never won a Grammy and they dominated the music scene for a single small year at best. Very few bands with this lack of impact are likely to go into the Hall of Fame.

12) If Joy Division were the best artist at a concert, would it be likely that the concert would rock?: Probably not sufficiently. In comparison with most bands of the time there are not many live documents of Joy Division, and those are not discussed nearly as much as other artists from the “punk revolution”.

13) What impact did Joy Division have on rock history? Were they responsible for any stylistic changes? Did they introduce any new equipment? Did Joy Division change history in any way?: Yes. Joy Division made synthesisers a legitimate part of alternative rock and in doing so helped pave the way for modern electronic music. They also changed post-punk music away from the “hard and fast” standard into a slow drones that were very influential in indie rock in the 1980s and 1990s.

14) Did Joy Division uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?: Ian Curtis’ suicide can make one think that they did not do so, but overall apart from that they had few problems either as Joy Division or alter as New Order.

Verdict: There is a pass on very few criteria as Joy Division, so one feels the verdicts has to be “don’t induct”. One could consider inducting them together with their spinoff New Order, but unlike with Parliament and Funkadelic this has never been considered by the Nominating Committee (who haven’t actually discussed New Order).

Strange choice of inductees for the 2009/2010 inductees

Only today have I recognised that the 2009/2010 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame inductees will be inducted on Monday 15 March.

More than that, I have noticed that the inductors ("presenters") for the 2009/2010 inductees will be a rather surprising group:

• ABBA: Barry and Robyn Gibb
• Genesis: Trey Anastasio (of Phish)
• The Hollies: Steven van Zandt
• Jimmy Cliff: Wyclef Jean
• The Stooges: Billie Joe Armstrong (of Green Day)

In none of the cases would the inductee be one I would have remotely expected. Phish, for one thing, are seen as closer to such jam bands as the Grateful Dead than to progressive rock - and the distinction is very definite. Had it been Yes instead of Genesis, I have imagined Hetfield and Ulrich doing the induction as they did with Black Sabbath - Rick Wakeman did play on some of Sabbath's albums showing how metal has had links with progressive rock as long as it's existed.

In the case of ABBA, I would more have imagined someone like Madonna doing it, whilst Billie Joe Armstrong really is an odd presenter for the Stooges. Given their influence on such genres as goth, hardcore and ultimately the slow-burn of grunge, one would more imagine someone like Chris Cornell (of Soundgarden) or one of the the surviving members of the Sex Pistols, or even David Bowie (who produced some of Iggy's solo albums).

Keltner analysis of undiscussed Rock Hall Artists: Dire Straits

The site A List of Things Thrown Five Minutes Ago, discusses various artists' credentials for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.

After finishing my analysis of the Rock Hall backlog, I always intended to analyse artists who have never been discussed by the Nominating Committee, but still might have credentials to justify induction. The aim of the process is to find out whether, on the basis of the Keltner list for a Hall of Fame, the Nominating Committee really is completely ignoring artists who have undeniable credentials to be in the Hall.

I do admit that there are some problems with the criteria, especially given known biases of the Nominating Committee and how they effect who is already in the Hall, but still I cannot see any better alternative.

I have so far done six Keltner tests on undiscussed artists:

• The Smiths (eligible 2008/2009, not worthy)
• Slayer (eligible 2008/2009, worthy)
• Sonic Youth (eligible 2007/2008, worthy)
• Janet Jackson (eligible 2007/2008, worthy)
• Steve Earle (eligible 2007/2008, not worthy)
• Hüsker Dü (eligible 2006/2007, not worthy)

My next artist, first eligible in 2003/2004, is Dire Straits. They were formed in 1977 by guitarist and lead vocalist Mark Knopfler, his younger brother David on rhythm guitar, bass player John Illsey and drummer Pick Withers. They toured in late 1977 opening for (surprisingly) the Talking Heads, and began recording their debut album Dire Straits at the beginning of 1978 with producer Muff Winwood, the older brother of Steve and once a bandmate in the Spencer Davis Group.

Owing to the success of the hit single "Sultans of Swing", both Dire Straits and its follow-up Communiqué were big sellers, and, with David Knopfler replaced on guitar by Hal Lindsey, their third album Making Movies was a huge hit in Europe and Australia even though it only reached number 19 on Billboard. Their 1982 album Love Over Gold was an even bigger seller, topping the charts in the UK and Australia, but again only reaching #19 on Billboard, probably because its songs were too long for radio - though Triple M in Australia still plays "Private Investigations", "Industrial Disease" and even the 14-minute "Telegraph Road" occasionally. After this, they released an EP Twisting by the Pool, which became a huge hit on the Australian singles charts but only reached number 53 in the States, and a live album Alchemy, which was only slightly more successful. During this period, mainman Mark Knopfler was also involved in a number of other musical projects such as the Local Hero soundtrack.

In 1985, however, aided by a sardonic attack on MTV in "Money For Nothing" (which I recall as a young boy devouring chemistry textbooks as "stannane working" instead of "that ain't working"), Dire Straits became the first superstars of the CD age with Brothers in Arms, which was at its peak the second best-selling album of all time in Australia after Best of ABBA and topped the charts worldwide. The band's success, however, seemed to affect Knpfler adversely, so that they took a long break after the world tour to support the album and did not reunite (with only Knopfler and Ilsey of the original line-up) until 1990 to record On Every Street. Though that album was a best-seller, Knopfler after that separated from Illsey for a solo career which - though not prolific - continues to this day. Illsey had released solo albums Never Told a Soul in 1984, Glass in 1988 and after a period of fifteen years entirely away from the music business, Live in les Baux de Provence in 2007 and a studio collaboration Beautiful You in 2008.

An evaluation of Dire Straits' Rock Hall credentials based on the Keltner criteria, which actually come from the Baseball Hall of Fame follows.

1) Were Dire Straits ever regarded as the best artist in rock music? (Did anybody, while Dire Straits were active, ever seriously suggest Dire Straits were the best artist in rock music?): No. Even when they were at their peak of popularity, Dire Straits never stood out over other giants of the 1980s like Bruce Springsteen or U2 - or, in different genres Michael Jackson or Madonna. More than that, whilst Dire Straits lyrics were almost all in the "populist" tradition of America roots-rock, they never were so effective at epitomising the cultural conflicts of the 1980s as Springsteen or even Mellencamp.

2) Were Dire Straits ever the best artist in rock music in its genre?: No. Even within the field of "populist" rock - as Knopfler's lyrics show him to be in their appeal to such sentiments as leisure and get-rich-quick schemes - Dire Straits were always behind Springsteen, Petty and Mellencamp.

3) Was any member of Dire Straits ever considered the best at his instrument?: Yes, Mark Knopfler was always regarded as an extremely good guitarist, and was in great demand as a session player for the duration the band was active. He may not make many critical lists, but he is extremely respected for his skill.

4) Did Dire Straits have an impact on a number of other artists?: One book I read said that "nobody was inspired by Dire Straits to start a career in music, but maybe they were in the field of making money". Another, more favourable book I recall from a long time ago said they were "strangely uninfluential". Though these books were written a long time ago, one cannot see that things have changed since. Thus, this question must get a "no".

5) Were Dire Straits good enough that they could play regularly after passing their prime?: No. As I have pointed out, after their first few albums Dire Straits were reduced to Knopfler and Illsey, and with the latter turning from music to art in the 1990s, there was never any hope of the band continuing beyond On Every Street.

6) Are Dire Straits the very best artist in history that is not in the Hall of Fame?: No, even though most of their rivals are already in the Hall of Fame, one has to consider so many bands of far greater influence and/or longevity.

7) Are most bands who have a comparable recording history and impact in the Hall of Fame?: Yes. Springsteen, Petty and Mellencamp are already in the Hall of Fame, as are U2 (who in a different way spoke to those disadvantaged by 1980s economic reforms). It is almost impossible to think of nearly so successful a roots-rocker who is not in the Hall of Fame.

8) Is there any evidence to suggest that Dire Straits were significantly better or worse than is suggested by their statistical records?: One can make little comment here. Dire Straits were a band who spoke to the working class of the 1980s very effectively, as shown by their ability to gain airplay with songs normally too long for radio.

9) Is Dire Straits the best artist in its genre that is eligible for the Hall of Fame?: Possibly, but only because most of their rivals on the charts of the 1980s are already inducted. It is striking how after Springsteen, Mellencamp and them, there is a complete drop off in the "populist" rock scene.

10) How many #1 singles/gold records did Dire Straits have? Did Dire Straits ever win a Grammy award? If not, how many times was Dire Straits nominated?: Dire Straits never actually had a number one single, but all six studio albums went gold in the US (and to higher status in the UK and Australia). So did their first live album Alchemy and first best-of Money for Nothing, which is a particularly impressive record by any standard. They won one Grammy for "Money for Nothing" and were nominated in 1980 for Best New Artist and for Best Rock Vocal Performance By a Duo or Group for "Sultans of Swing". They were also nominated in 1992 for "Calling Elvis".

11) How many Grammy-level songs/albums did Dire Straits have? For how long of a period did Dire Straits dominate the music scene? How many Rolling Stone covers did Dire Straits appear on? Did most bands with this sort of impact go into the Hall of Fame?: Dire Straits had only one Grammy-level song in "Money for Nothing" and one album in Brothers in Arms - which actually won a Grammy for its videos only. They appeared on only three Rolling Stone covers, which is a very modest number for so commercially successful a band and does not auger well for their credentials.

12) If Dire Straits were the best artist at a concert, would it be likely that the concert would rock?: Yes. They were a major concert drawcard throughout their career and released several noted live albums, the first of which sold very well. With Knopfler's epic guitar work, it is not surprising they, like earlier jam bands, could be so effective live.

13) What impact did Dire Straits have on rock history? Were they responsible for any stylistic changes? Did they introduce any new equipment? Did Dire Straits change history in any way?: Most definitely not in terms of changing rock history or equipment. Dire Straits cannot be said to have brought any new equipment to rock or new styles: their style was very much inherited from the roots music of the late 1960s and early 1970s. However, in terms of musical technology, one can say they were the first to promote the CD. I would not view that as a critical issue, though.

14) Did Dire Straits uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?: There is relatively little to be said here, though the fact that Dire Straits never had the problems of drugs or other such issues may be in their favour.

Verdict:

All in all, Dire Straits can be best viewed as a case of "one too far" regarding their potential induction. Though of the 1980s roots-rockers they are the only major one not inducted, it cannot be said that they deserve it. Thus the verdict must be don't induct.

Expanded Rock Hall ballot

To my considerable surprise, the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame announced last weekend that there would be twelve artists on the 2009/2010 ballot as opposed to the nine placed on the ballots for 2006/2007, 2007/2008 and 2008/2009.

Most commentators on the Rock Hall have welcomed this decision, and I do too, at least if the judges have even a reasonable ability to judge what is important in rock history and what is not.

Let us now go back to my June prediction for the 2009/2010 ballot and look at the "Bubbling Under" artists. If you read my comment here, you will see I had

1. The Stooges
2. Donna Summer
3. Deep Purple
4. Yes

in my "bubbling under" list and I think those four do have a strong chance of filling places. I still have a question mark over how the Nominating Committee will view the Stooges after seven failed inductions, even though Future Rock Legends said I was predicting Randy Newman (my suggested replacement for the Stooges), the Meters and Dick Dale "at my own risk". I have pointed out the theory on which this is based, though, and I don't feel I have enough evidence to discard it.

When we move onto my own "bubbling under" candidates, I can currently see strong possibilities in

1. The Hollies, who have been much hyped and certainly possess the popular credentials and reputation on classic-hits radio
2. T. Rex, whose importance in the protopunk glam movement and their recognisable hit "Get It On" should make them a chance
3. The Sugarhill Gang, who with rap coming into its own might be rated the best chance of my "bubbling under" artists.

Keltner analysis of undiscussed Rock Hall Artists: Hüsker Dü

The site A List of Things Thrown Five Minutes Ago, discusses various artists' credentials for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.

After finishing my analysis of the Rock Hall backlog, I always intended to analyse artists who have never been discussed by the Nominating Committee, but still might have credentials to justify induction. The aim of the process is to find out whether, on the basis of the Keltner list for a Hall of Fame, the Nominating Committee really is completely ignoring artists who have undeniable credentials to be in the Hall.

I do admit that there are some problems with the criteria, especially given known biases of the Nominating Committee and how they effect who is already in the Hall, but still I cannot see any better alternative.

I have so far done five Keltner tests on undiscussed artists:

• The Smiths (eligible 2008/2009, not worthy)
• Slayer (eligible 2008/2009, worthy)
• Sonic Youth (eligible 2007/2008, worthy)
• Janet Jackson (eligible 2007/2008, worthy)
• Steve Earle (eligible 2007/2008, not worthy)

My next artist, first eligible in 2006/2007, is Hüsker Dü. Formed when drummer/vocalist Grant Hart and bassist Greg Norton met guitarist/vocalist at a record store called "Cheapo Discs" in Minneapolis, their shared love of the Ramones led them to form a band after discarding keyboardist Charlie Pine after their first gig. They soon developed a ferocious hardcore sound similar to Black Flag, Minor Threat or the Misfits and formed their own label, Reflex Records, that was allied to Twin Tone. Their Reflex albums, 1981's live Land Speed Record and 1982's studio debut Everything Falls Apart, have been heavily criticised, but with 1983's Metal Circus EP, released on Greg Ginn's SST label, Hüsker Dü began towards a more melodic variation on hardcore punk.

However, it was with 1984's double album Zen Arcade that Hüsker Dü first really captured attention outside their already-rabid cult. The album sold out on its first pressing and that affected long-term sales, but Zen Arcade won immense critical acclaim for its fusion of pop with the traditionally anti-pop genre of hardcore. With two albums from 1985, New Day Rising and then Flip Your Wig, Hüsker Dü moved further towards pop played as punk, and become such staples of college radio as to attract the attention of major labels who had previously overlooked anything beyond commercial radio since the "punk revolution" (Warners in fact signed them before Flip Your Wig was finished, but Hüsker Dü felt they owed SST one more album).

With the release of their first major label album Candy Apple Grey, Hüsker Dü were gaining exposure even from commercial radio. However, sales remained very poor: although the album was their first to dent the Top 200, it got no higher than number one hundred and forty. Despite this, Candy Apple Grey was made so economically that Warners made a profit on it. By this stage, Bob Mould and Grant Hart were suffering from drug problems and were fighting over whose songs would be included on subsequent albums: it was said that Mould would never allow Grant Hart to write even half the songs for a Hüsker Dü record.

This conflict, along with the personal differences when Mould but not Hart cleaned up his narcotic habit, marred the making of their second Warner Brothers album Warehouse: Songs and Stories. Originally intended as a single disc, despite Warner Brothers' opposition, Warehouse was eventually released as a double album. "Could You Be the One" eventually got considerable airtime on MTV, but the album could still not go above one hundred and seventeen on the Billboard 200. With differences between Mould and Hart irretrievable, the band broke up after a final tour documented on the 1994-released live album The Living End.

After Hüsker Dü, Greg Norton quit music and became a chef in Minneapolis, whilst Mould and Hart embarked upon solo careers. Mould later formed a power trio called Sugar, whose albums Copper Blue and File Under: Easy Listening sold better than anything Hüsker Dü did, with the latter reaching number fifty and number seven in Britain. Both Hart and Mould have been relatively quiet since the middle 1990s, though they did do one reunion concert for the benefit of Soul Asylum bass player Karl Müller in 2004. Hart also played keyboards on Patti Smith's 2000 album Gung Ho and sang with (members of) post-rock band Godspeed You Black Emperor in 2008.

An evaluation of Hüsker Dü's Rock Hall credentials based on the Keltner criteria, which actually come from the Baseball Hall of Fame follows.

1) Were Hüsker Dü ever regarded as the best artist in rock music? (Did anybody, while Hüsker Dü were active, ever seriously suggest Hüsker Dü were the best artist in rock music?): Many would thought Hüsker Dü were the best artist in rock music for a brief period around 1984 and 1985, but that is a very short period and even then they were in competition with such artists as the Butthole Surfers, the Replacements, the Minutemen and the emerging Sonic Youth.

2) Were Hüsker Dü ever the best artist in rock music in its genre?: Again, this is questionable. A problem is that Hüsker Dü changed genre quite a bit during their short career. In hardcore punk, they were never seen as in a league with Black Flag, the Misfits or Minor Threat or the Angry Samoans. In alternative rock, they were always competing with the Replacements, whilst in the "underground art rock" field, they were always below the Butthole Surfers.

All in all, it is tough to pinpoint a moment when Hüsker Dü were demonstrably the best artist either generally on in its narrowly-defined "genre".

3) Was any member of Hüsker Dü ever considered the best at his instrument?: No. Grant Hart as a drummer would be closest, but he has rarely made published lists of the very best drummers in rock. Even from his time period Steve Shelley and Topper Headon were generally considered at least as good.

4) Did Hüsker Dü have an impact on a number of other artists?: Certainly, immensely so, and this is the case for their induction. They became regarded as the inventors of grunge rock by many during the 1990s, and Hüsker Dü are also a critical root for emo bands like Thursday and Jimmy Eat World who hit the charts in the 2000s. During the 1990s, many people even outside their genre, like Amy Ray of the Indigo Girls, expressed great admiration for Hüsker Dü.

5) Were Hüsker Dü good enough that they could play regularly after passing their prime?: Emphatically no. Hüsker Dü disbanded in 1987 and have never had any hope of a reunion since with Greg Norton having not played music since 1991. In recent years even Mould and Hart have not been doing that much.

6) Are Hüsker Dü the very best artist in history that is not in the Hall of Fame?: Hardly. Even if one confines oneself to underground innovators who never broke in the mainstream, one would have at least the Stooges, the MC5 and Captain Beefheart eligible for much longer and being just as well known in the mainstream.

7) Are most bands who have a comparable recording history and impact in the Hall of Fame?: No. If one looks at other hugely influential alternative acts who never dented the Top 100 on Billboard, only the Velvet Underground and the Sex Pistols (Never Mind the Bollocks has actually sold 750,000 copies in the US) are in the Hall. None of the underground alternative bands except the Replacements have even been considered.

8) Is there any evidence to suggest that Hüsker Dü were significantly better or worse than is suggested by their statistical records?: The fact that Hüsker Dü could never break through commercially despite exposure on commercial radio and MTV suggests they spoke only to a small minority of people in the musical community and that some of the hype over them was unwarranted.

9) Is Hüsker Dü the best artist in its genre that is eligible for the Hall of Fame?: If one wants to follow Throwing Things (upon which this series is based), I will have to say no. Moreover, if you look at 1) and 2) above there always seems at least to be an artist who would dispute the claim at the very least.

10) How many #1 singles/gold records did Hüsker Dü have? Did Hüsker Dü ever win a Grammy award? If not, how many times was Hüsker Dü nominated?: As mentioned many time, Hüsker Dü were a complete failure commercially, never reaching the Billboard Top 100. They were also never remotely considered for a Grammy.

11) How many Grammy-level songs/albums did Hüsker Dü have? For how long of a period did Hüsker Dü dominate the music scene? How many Rolling Stone covers did Hüsker Dü appear on? Did most bands with this sort of impact go into the Hall of Fame?: Hüsker Dü were never considered for anything like a Grammy, and they dominated the music scene for a quite short period of time before tension between Mould and Hart broke the band apart. This criterion can only disfavour their induction.

12) If Hüsker Dü were the best artist at a concert, would it be likely that the concert would rock?: Definitely. Hüsker Dü's live shows were one of the reasons they became so influential on many other bands who at the time they played regularly in the Minneapolis area were struggling to gain record deals. Their live shows have been considered so important that long after Hüsker Dü disbanded they were compiled onto an album.

13) What impact did Hüsker Dü have on rock history? Were they responsible for any stylistic changes? Did they introduce any new equipment? Did Hüsker Dü change history in any way?: Hüsker Dü had a pivotal impact on rock history in developing the concept of playing pop songs with the energy of punk, which paved the way for the grunge explosion. They did not introduce any new equipment, but Hüsker Dü certainly changed history by becoming the first of the 1980s underground bands to sign with a major label, thus paving the way for hit singles by R.E.M. and in 1996, even the Butthole Surfers.

14) Did Hüsker Dü uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?: The main thing here would be the consistent fights between Mould and Hart over the running of the band and their involvement in drugs, neither of which I would see as a positive - especially given their effects on the band's long-term future.

Verdict: Hüsker Dü must be the definitive case of a band with tremendous influence as its only credential to be inducted. The fact that Hüsker Dü, as shown by its failure to break through commercially even with some support from radio and MTV, could not speak to most people in Reagan-era America, means though that they fail almost all the other criteria and the verdict must be don't induct Hüsker Dü into the Hall of Fame.

Using the Top 100 Artists on Billboard's Top 200 as a predictor for the Rock Hall - Or Why the Charts Don't Matter?

In 1996, Billboard magazine published a list of all albums to have charted, and the list was updated in 2005. Though I have not read the updated version, I found the top 100 artists listed as part of the Future Rock Hall blog and sincerely thank one Roy for providing the list for me to analyse. Future Rock Hall has previously said that a successful singles career is simply not sufficient grounds for being inducted to the Rock Hall.

Being far more familiar with album than singles charts, I have ever since reading that study been curious about whether the top album artists on Billboard are likely to be inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.

Notable about the list below is that much more than the top singles artist list mentioned earlier, none of the artists are remotely recent: there is no Whitney Houston, no Janet Jackson, no Bon Jovi, no R.E.M., no Duran Duran, even no John Cougar Mellencamp. Only Mariah Carey and Garth Brooks remain ineligible as of the 2010 induction, and I do not imagine that very much will have changed in this direction since 2005.

It must be noted that most of the artists who are not Hall of Famers have most of their album sales from compilations of singles rather than original albums, which is why a number of pre-Billboard artists can be seen below. It is however true that some artists in the Hall of Fame with large cults (Morrison, Zappa, the Grateful Dead) also have sales from compilations that are vital to their place here. So does James Brown.

Of the 100 artists listed below

• forty-nine are Hall of Famers as Performer, which is a somewhat better success rate than with the singles charts.
• three are Hall of Famers in a category other than Performer (marked with † for Non-Performer inductee and ‡ for Early Influence inductee)
  
• but of the remaining forty-eight as few as seven (marked with #) have received serious discussion from the Nominating Committee, and it is not likely even these seven will get in soon.

On paper, this list is no better a predictive tool than the singles list and one cannot recommend it as a predictive tool, although there exist prospect of improvements if compilations could be excluded (a virtually impossible task).

The complete list, with links to those not in the Hall of Fame as a Performer, is:

1. Elvis Presley
2. Frank Sinatra
3. The Beatles
4. Barbra Streisand
5. The Rolling Stones
6. Johnny Mathis
7. Elton John
8. Bob Dylan
9. Neil Diamond#
10. The Temptations
11. The Beach Boys
12. Eric Clapton
13. Ray Conniff
14. Willie Nelson
15. Ray Charles
16. Rod Stewart
17. Mantovani
18. Aretha Franklin
19. Paul McCartney
20. David Bowie
21. Prince
22. James Brown
23. Pink Floyd
24. Andy Williams
25. Lawrence Welk
26. Neil Young
27. Bee Gees
28. Chicago#
29. The Supremes
30. Henry Mancini
31. The Kingston Trio
32. Jimmy Buffett
33. Herb Alpert†
34. Kenny Rogers/First Edition
35. Jimi Hendrix
36. Aerosmith
37. Stevie Wonder
38. The Grateful Dead
39. Roger Williams
40. Fleetwood Mac
41. The Ventures
42. Led Zeppelin
43. Van Morrison
44. George Strait
45. Nat "King" Cole‡
46. KISS#
47. Linda Ronstadt#
48. Metallica
49. Johnny Cash
50. Billy Vaughn
51. Bruce Springsteen
52. Diana Ross
53. Barry Manilow
54. Queen
55. Santana
56. The Who
57. Garth Brooks (eligible 2014/2015)
58. Madonna
59. Jefferson Airplane/Jefferson Starship/Starship
60. U2
61. Dionne Warwick
62. Billy Joel
63. John Denver
64. Rush
65. Mitch Miller
66. Michael Jackson
67. James Taylor
68. Harry Belafonte
69. The Isley Brothers
70. Alabama
71. The Lettermen
72. The Eagles
73. AC/DC
74. Nancy Wilson
75. Marvin Gaye
76. The Doors
77. Jethro Tull#
78. Dolly Parton
79. Tony Bennett
80. The Kinks
81. Dean Martin
82. The Monkees
83. Joan Baez
84. Journey
85. Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers/Tom Petty
86. Glen Campbell
87. Gladys Knight and the Pips
88. Earth, Wind and Fire
89. The Moody Blues#
90. Frank Zappa
91. Mariah Carey (eligible 2015/2016)
92. Anne Murray
93. Steve Miller Band#
94. Enoch Light
95. Cher
96. Carole King†
97. Hall & Oates
98. Elvis Costello
99. Carly Simon
100. Bob Seger

Please note that some of the links are defective as the artists do not have a Future Rock Hall page. They are there for consistency only and do not worry if you are redirected to the main Future Rock Hall list.

Keltner analysis of undiscussed Rock Hall Artists: Steve Earle

The site A List of Things Thrown Five Minutes Ago, discusses various artists' credentials for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.

After finishing my analysis of the Rock Hall backlog, I always intended to analyse artists who have never been discussed by the Nominating Committee, but still might have credentials to justify induction. The aim of the process is to find out whether, on the basis of the Keltner list for a Hall of Fame, the Nominating Committee really is completely ignoring artists who have undeniable credentials to be in the Hall.

I do admit that there are some problems with the criteria, especially given known biases of the Nominating Committee and how they effect who is already in the Hall, but still I cannot see any better alternative.

I have already done four Keltner tests on undiscussed artists:

• The Smiths (eligible 2008/2009, not worthy)
• Slayer (eligible 2008/2009, worthy)
• Sonic Youth (eligible 2007/2008, worthy)
• Janet Jackson (eligible 2007/2008, worthy)

My next artist, again first eligible in 2007/2008, is Steve Earle. Beginning as nominally a country artist with the EP Pink and Black that was issued in three limited editions of 1000 and has never made it to compact disc. It was 1986 before Earle hit the public's consciousness with his first full album Guitar Town, and he followed it up with a tour in which he supported both The Replacements and George Jones to show the broadness of his audience. Earle then recorded 1987's more rock-oriented Exit O and 1988's conceptual Copperhead Road, where the two halves had a completely different feel: one side of uptempo socially conscious piece and one of slower love songs with Maria McKee backing him. The album was his biggest seller and in Australia the title song became a top 30 single and is still played on classic rock radio.

However, drug addiction was taking its toll and 1990's The Hard Way showed the strain. After that, Earle did not release another studio album until the middle 1990s, with only two live albums Shut Up and Die like an Aviator and BBC Radio 1 Live in Concert: An Overview to complete a contract with MCA. In 1993, Earle went to jail for possessing drugs, but after his release he surprisingly recovered and has recorded as frequently as ever since 1994's Train a Coming. At first, Earle's following seemed to have deserted him and his late 1990s albums, more classically "country" in sound, rarely dented the Billboard Top 200. However, his political activism since the September 11 terrorist attacks has served to raise his profile once more. His latest album, 2009's Townes, his first covers album, reached #19 on the Billboard 200.

An evaluation of Steve Earle's Rock Hall credentials based on the Keltner criteria, which actually come from the Baseball Hall of Fame follows.

1) Was Steve Earle ever regarded as the best artist in rock music? (Did anybody, while Steve Earle was active, ever seriously suggest Steve Earle was the best artist in rock music?): No. Though he was well-received by rock critics and the public, Earle was never able to be seen as the trendsetter of his peak years in the late 1980s.

2) Was Steve Earle ever the best artist in rock music in his genre?: As a roots-rocker (which All Music describes him), probably not because of the competition from Springsteen and even Mellencamp or the Black Crowes in the early 1990s. Nevertheless, in country rock, Earle was definitely the main force behind the revitalisation of the genre. His only rivals would be the Jayhawks, and they never achieved the commercial success Earle did (not denting the Top 150 before 1995).

3) Was Steve Earle ever considered the best at his instrument?: Not really. Steve Earle was not on Rolling Stone's 100 Greatest singers and has rarely been regarded as a virtuoso either on vocals or guitar.

4) Did Steve Earle have an impact on a number of other artists?: Yes, definitely. Steve Earle undoubtedly was a key component in the evolution of the alt-country genre in the 1990s and is cited by pop-country artists of the early 2000s like Kasey Chambers as a key influence.

5) Was Steve Earle good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?: Yes, Steve Earle has been playing and recording as regularly as ever since he recovered from his drug problems in the middle 1990s that threatened his career whilst he was at an artistic and commercial peak and the tail end of the 1980s. In recent times, as noted above, Earle has even restored his popularity.

6) Is Steve Earle the very best artist in history that is not in the Hall of Fame?: Of course, one could never go so far with Steve Earle's Rock Hall credentials to seriously argue this. Steve Earle certainly has a place in history for having revitalised and reinvigorated a whole genre of music, but I do not think anybody could say that compares with inventing or popularising entirely new genres like bands like the Stooges, Captain Beefheart, Sonic Youth, Slayer or latterly Nirvana did.

7) Are most singers who have a comparable recording history and impact in the Hall of Fame?: I would think not, since few singer/songwriters outside the most explicitly popular are in the Hall of Fame, and those that are like Neil Young, Van Morrison and Joni Mitchell had much wider influence and higher commercial peaks. Moreover, previous innovators in the field of country-rock like the Flying Burrito Brothers have not been honored, so that inducting Steve Earle would be out of place in that context.

8) Is there any evidence to suggest that Steve Earle was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistical records?: There is really little to argue here.

9) Is Steve Earle the best artist in his genre that is eligible for the Hall of Fame?: Probably not, given that Gram Parsons and the Flying Burrito Brothers have not yet been inducted.

10) How many #1 singles/gold records did Steve Earle have? Did Steve Earle ever win a Grammy award? If not, how many times was Steve Earle nominated?: Steve Earle had no Top 50 hit singles on Billboard, and only one gold record in the US in Copperhead Road. He won only one Grammy award, and that in 2007 well after his "peak" years. This thus can only be a case against his induction.

11) How many Grammy-level songs/albums did Steve Earle have? For how long of a period did Steve Earle dominate the music scene? How many Rolling Stone covers did Steve Earle appear on? Did most artists with this sort of impact go into the Hall of Fame?: As mentioned in the previous section, Steve Earle had only one Grammy-level album, and overall he never "dominated" the music scene, reaching his peak at a time when the genre he was in was in the background because of the overwhelming musical and cultural power of hip hop and thrash metal. This may also be the reason why he appeared on no Rolling Stone covers during the late 1980s.

12) If Steve Earle was the best artist at a concert, would it be likely that the concert would rock?: I have never heard much about his concert performances, but the desire for live albums during his peak years in the late 1980s does suggest he had some impact. Whether it is adequate I am far from sure though.

13) What impact did Steve Earle have on rock history? Was he responsible for any stylistic changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did Steve Earle change history in any way?: Steve Earle certainly had an impact on rock history in revitalising country-rock and roots-rock for the 1990s, and even in bringing this tough, rootsy approach to a quite large - if never "mass" - audience. However, as I have noted above, Steve Earle, during his peak years, was in the background because of other far more important changes in music.

14) Did Steve Earle uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?: By principle, I would say his drug problems in the late 1980s are a minus here, and that the way in which he today had been bashing George W. Bush is not the asset some think. Otherwise there is not much to say.

Verdict: If one were to induct Steve Earle, one would have to induct at least the Flying Burrito Brothers who came long beforehand, and potentially a number of other artists in the same genre whose merits remain to be tested but could hardly favour induction. Overall, therefore, despite his considerable impact on the genre I will have to give a don't induct.