Showing posts with label sports leagues. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sports leagues. Show all posts

Sunday, 22 September 2024

1980s West Indies versus 1980s VFL?

Eleven years ago, I reacted in what I now recognise as a ridiculous manner to the discovery of an article in the Sydney Morning Herald that discussed the losses suffered by the 1984 Australian cricket tour of the West Indies. Having during the 1990s discovered an apparent pervasive anticorrelation between fast bowling strength and the profitability of first-class cricket, I long assumed the West Indies were an exception. Thus, my discovery that tours there were losing money made me emphasise beliefs established as a teenager, though others around me denied their truth.

Absence of evidence re the profitability of Caribbean tours before Lloyd worked out that spin was an unnecessary luxury precluded refutation of the argument that their extreme fast bowling strength caused the financial losses. Even people outside my family were unable to offer an answer with which I was satisfied — and they themselves never discussed the profitability of previous Caribbean tours.

Today when discussing the issue of how 1980s Wisdens overemphasised how bad England was and did not discuss what the West Indies were doing well, I received an interesting idea. This was that the financial losses of West Indian cricket during the 1980s were due to the increasing financial demands of their star players.

I had never thought of this argument before, but it is eerily similar to the situation faced by [Australian Rules] football during exactly the same era. With the VFL’s zoning and clearance rules declared illegal, and clubs in an era of inflation seeking to gain top players at any price, player costs continued to rise even when governments put the brakes on inflation, with the result that real wages of players increased at an increasing rate. Consequently, declining attendances as more and more people relocated to suburbs remote from the public transport essential to move large numbers of people to grounds produced much heavier losses than occasional attendance declines in previous eras. Clubs could not cut expenses as they previously could because of the demands players were making. These demands were further increased by a greater demand to win at any price (at least by most top football clubs). At the same time ruling classes who formerly patronised football turned to basketball, which was very easy to televise to people remote from public transport. The VFA, the WAFL, and lower leagues suffered even more than did the VFL. Ultimately, football had to reform on basketball’s terms — rationalised grounds and standardised conditions that made the game much easier to televise.

1980s West Indian cricket managers, no doubt, would have liked to reduce payments to star players to lower costs, but the Sydney Morning Herald implied that they knew this to be impossible. Also, exactly like [Australian Rules] football, cricket in the West Indies was struggling to compete with the rapidly growing National Basketball Association — based much closer than the MCC or Kerry Packer. Another similarity was that the West Indies were taking cricket to all grounds although only Queen’s Park in Trinidad was economically profitable, while football was played on unprofitable suburban ovals on which league-fixed ticket prices meant more popular clubs could not generate sufficient revenue from home games to improve facilities. The ruling classes of the West Indies, increasingly linked to the United States, had little interest in patronising better and cheaper accommodation at cricket venues.

A major difference is that the VFL by 1984 recognised for exactly this reason that suburban grounds needed to be phased out, whereas the West Indies Cricket Board was expanding first-class cricket to these very loss-making venues. Nonetheless, the similarities are both interesting and surprising — increasing demands from players and a shift of ruling class patrons to basketball are almost certainly behind the heavy losses of all [Australian Rules] football competitions in the 1980s and may well be behind the financial losses suffered by the West Indies while it dominated world cricket on the field.

Tuesday, 29 March 2022

Extra gridiron games, 2002-2020

Ever since the NFL chose to move to a 17-game season for 2021 — which I discovered much later because I never desire to obsess myself — I have wanted to tabulate what the American gridiron schedule would have been if the 17-game schedule had been introduced in the original 32-team season of 2002. The extra game for 2021 and beyond is played against a team in the division of the opposite conference that was played in full (all four teams) two years previously and again two seasons subsequently. Which team is played is determined, as with the two extra intraconference games since 2002, by position the previous season.

The ultimate goal of this blog post is to see which teams would have been paired most often in the “extra game” had it been played between 2002 and 2020, and which least often.

AFC East and AFC North:

Bills Dolphins Patriots Jets Ravens Bengals Browns Steelers
2002 Cardinals 49ers Rams Seahawks Redskins Cowboys Giants Eagles
2003 Panthers Saints Falcons Buccaneers Bears Lions Vikings Packers
2004 Bears Vikings Packers Lions Panthers Saints Falcons Buccaneers
2005 Cowboys Redskins Eagles Giants Rams Cardinals 49ers Seahawks
2006 Cardinals Rams Seahawks 49ers Cowboys Giants Eagles Redskins
2007 Falcons Buccaneers Saints Panthers Bears Packers Lions Vikings
2008 Vikings Bears Packers Lions Falcons Saints Panthers Buccaneers
2009 Redskins Giants Eagles Cowboys 49ers Seahawks Rams Cardinals
2010 Rams Seahawks Cardinals 49ers Eagles Cowboys Redskins Giants
2011 Panthers Buccaneers Falcons Saints Packers Vikings Lions Bears
2012 Vikings Bears Packers Lions Saints Panthers Buccaneers Falcons
2013 Eagles Giants Redskins Cowboys 49ers Seahawks Cardinals Rams
2014 Rams Cardinals Seahawks 49ers Giants Eagles Redskins Cowboys
2015 Saints Falcons Panthers Buccaneers Vikings Lions Bears Packers
2016 Lions Bears Vikings Packers Saints Panthers Buccaneers Falcons
2017 Redskins Giants Cowboys Eagles Cardinals Rams 49ers Seahawks
2018 Seahawks Cardinals Rams 49ers Cowboys Redskins Giants Eagles
2019 Panthers Falcons Saints Buccaneers Bears Lions Packers Vikings
2020 Vikings Lions Packers Bears Saints Panthers Buccaneers Falcons

AFC South and AFC West:

Texans Colts Jaguars Titans Broncos Chiefs Raiders Chargers
2002 Lions Packers Vikings Bears Saints Falcons Buccaneers Panthers
2003 Cardinals Rams Seahawks 49ers Giants Cowboys Eagles Redskins
2004 Giants Eagles Redskins Cowboys Seahawks Rams 49ers Cardinals
2005 Panthers Falcons Saints Buccaneers Vikings Lions Bears Packers
2006 Packers Bears Vikings Lions Buccaneers Panthers Saints Falcons
2007 Cardinals Seahawks 49ers Rams Giants Cowboys Redskins Eagles
2008 Eagles Cowboys Giants Redskins Cardinals 49ers Rams Seahawks
2009 Buccaneers Falcons Saints Panthers Bears Lions Packers Vikings
2010 Packers Vikings Lions Bears Falcons Buccaneers Panthers Saints
2011 49ers Seahawks Rams Cardinals Redskins Eagles Cowboys Giants
2012 Giants Redskins Cowboys Eagles 49ers Rams Seahawks Cardinals
2013 Falcons Panthers Buccaneers Saints Packers Lions Bears Vikings
2014 Vikings Packers Lions Bears Panthers Saints Buccaneers Falcons
2015 Cardinals Seahawks 49ers Rams Cowboys Eagles Redskins Giants
2016 Redskins Eagles Giants Cowboys Cardinals Seahawks Rams 49ers
2017 Falcons Saints Panthers Buccaneers Vikings Packers Lions Bears
2018 Bears Packers Vikings Lions Buccaneers Saints Falcons Panthers
2019 Rams Seahawks Cardinals 49ers Redskins Cowboys Giants Eagles
2020 Eagles Giants Redskins Cowboys Seahawks 49ers Rams Cardinals

NFC East and NFC North:

Cowboys Giants Eagles Redskins Bears Lions Packers Vikings
2002 Bengals Browns Steelers Ravens Titans Texans Colts Jaguars
2003 Chiefs Broncos Raiders Chargers Ravens Bengals Steelers Browns
2004 Titans Texans Colts Jaguars Bills Jets Patriots Dolphins
2005 Bills Jets Patriots Dolphins Raiders Chiefs Chargers Broncos
2006 Ravens Bengals Browns Steelers Colts Titans Texans Jaguars
2007 Chiefs Broncos Chargers Raiders Ravens Browns Bengals Steelers
2008 Colts Jaguars Texans Titans Dolphins Jets Patriots Bills
2009 Jets Dolphins Patriots Bills Broncos Chiefs Raiders Chargers
2010 Bengals Steelers Ravens Browns Titans Jaguars Texans Colts
2011 Raiders Chargers Chiefs Broncos Steelers Browns Ravens Bengals
2012 Jaguars Texans Titans Colts Dolphins Jets Patriots Bills
2013 Jets Dolphins Bills Patriots Raiders Chiefs Broncos Chargers
2014 Steelers Ravens Bengals Browns Titans Jaguars Colts Texans
2015 Broncos Chargers Chiefs Raiders Browns Bengals Steelers Ravens
2016 Titans Jaguars Colts Texans Dolphins Bills Jets Patriots
2017 Patriots Dolphins Jets Bills Chargers Raiders Chiefs Broncos
2018 Ravens Browns Steelers Bengals Texans Titans Colts Jaguars
2019 Chiefs Raiders Chargers Broncos Ravens Bengals Browns Steelers
2020 Titans Colts Texans Jaguars Jets Dolphins Patriots Bills

NFC South and NFC West:

Falcons Panthers Saints Buccaneers Cardinals Rams 49ers Seahawks
2002 Chiefs Chargers Broncos Raiders Bills Patriots Dolphins Jets
2003 Patriots Bills Dolphins Jets Texans Colts Titans Jaguars
2004 Browns Ravens Bengals Steelers Chargers Chiefs Raiders Broncos
2005 Colts Texans Jaguars Titans Bengals Ravens Browns Steelers
2006 Chargers Chiefs Raiders Broncos Bills Dolphins Jets Patriots
2007 Bills Jets Patriots Dolphins Texans Titans Jaguars Colts
2008 Ravens Browns Bengals Steelers Broncos Raiders Chiefs Chargers
2009 Colts Titans Jaguars Texans Steelers Browns Ravens Bengals
2010 Broncos Raiders Chargers Chiefs Patriots Bills Jets Dolphins
2011 Patriots Bills Jets Dolphins Titans Jaguars Texans Colts
2012 Steelers Bengals Ravens Browns Chargers Chiefs Broncos Raiders
2013 Texans Colts Titans Jaguars Browns Steelers Ravens Bengals
2014 Chargers Broncos Chiefs Raiders Dolphins Bills Jets Patriots
2015 Dolphins Patriots Bills Jets Texans Titans Jaguars Colts
2016 Steelers Bengals Ravens Browns Broncos Raiders Chargers Chiefs
2017 Texans Jaguars Colts Titans Ravens Bengals Browns Steelers
2018 Raiders Chargers Chiefs Broncos Dolphins Patriots Jets Bills
2019 Dolphins Bills Patriots Jets Jaguars Texans Titans Colts
2020 Steelers Bengals Ravens Browns Chargers Raiders Chiefs Broncos

Overall Total of Extra Games Between Each Pair of Teams, 2002-2020

Bills Dolphins Patriots Jets Ravens Bengals Browns Steelers Texans Colts Jaguars Titans Broncos Chiefs Raiders Chargers
Cowboys 1 0 1 2 2 2 0 1 0 1 1 3 1 3 1 0
Giants 0 3 0 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 0 2 0 1 2
Eagles 1 0 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 0 1 0 2 1 2
Redskins 2 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 0 2 1
Bears 1 3 0 1 3 0 1 1 1 1 0 3 1 0 2 1
Lions 1 1 0 3 0 3 2 0 1 0 2 2 0 3 1 0
Packers 0 0 4 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 0 0 1 1 1 1
Vikings 3 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 0 2 0 0 2
Falcons 1 2 2 0 1 0 1 3 2 2 0 0 1 1 1 2
Panthers 3 0 1 1 1 3 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
Saints 1 1 2 1 3 2 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 2 1 1
Buccaneers 0 2 0 3 0 0 3 2 1 0 1 2 2 1 2 0
Cardinals 2 2 1 0 1 1 1 1 3 0 1 1 2 0 0 3
Rams 2 1 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 2 3 0
49ers 0 1 0 4 2 0 2 0 1 0 2 2 1 2 1 1
Seahawks 1 1 2 1 0 2 0 2 0 4 1 0 2 1 1 1

Comparative notes:

The following sixty-two pairings would never have occurred as the extra game between 2004 and 2020:
  1. Bills v. Giants
  2. Bills v. Packers
  3. Bills v. Buccaneers
  4. Bills v. 49ers
  5. Dolphins v. Cowboys
  6. Dolphins v. Eagles
  7. Dolphins v. Packers
  8. Dolphins v. Panthers
  9. Patriots v. Giants
  10. Patriots v. Bears
  11. Patriots v. Giants
  12. Patriots v. Buccaneers
  13. Patriots v. 49ers
  14. Jets v. Redskins
  15. Jets v. Vikings
  16. Jets v. Falcons
  17. Jets v. Cardinals
  18. Jets v. Rams
  19. Ravens v. Lions
  20. Ravens v. Buccaneers
  21. Ravens v. Seahawks
  22. Bengals v. Bears
  23. Bengals v. Falcons
  24. Bengals v. Buccaneers
  25. Bengals v, 49ers
  26. Browns v. Cowboys
  27. Browns v. Saints
  28. Browns v. Seahawks
  29. Steelers v. Lions
  30. Steelers v. Panthers
  31. Steelers v. Saints
  32. Steelers v. 49ers
  33. Texans v. Cowboys
  34. Texans v. Saints
  35. Texans v. Seahawks
  36. Colts v. Lions
  37. Colts v. Buccaneers
  38. Colts v. Cardinals
  39. Colts v. 49ers
  40. Jaguars v. Eagles
  41. Jaguars v. Bears
  42. Jaguars v. Packers
  43. Jaguars v. Falcons
  44. Titans v. Giants
  45. Titans v. Packers
  46. Titans v. Vikings
  47. Titans v. Falcons
  48. Titans v. Seahawks
  49. Broncos v. Eagles
  50. Broncos v. Lions
  51. Broncos v. Rams
  52. Chiefs v. Giants
  53. Chiefs v. Redskins
  54. Chiefs v. Bears
  55. Chiefs v. Vikings
  56. Chiefs v. Cardinals
  57. Raiders v. Vikings
  58. Raiders v. Cardinals
  59. Chargers v. Cowboys
  60. Chargers v. Lions
  61. Chargers v. Buccaneers
  62. Chargers v. Rams
The theoretical maximum of occurrences for any pair is five, but no pairs would have occured five times. The following three pairs would have occurred four times however:
  1. Patriots v. Packers
  2. Jets v. 49ers
  3. Colts v. Seahawks
    • this is a little ironic given that the two teams did not play at all between 1979 and 1990 inclusive when the Seahawks were in the AFC.
The following eighteen would have occurred three times:
  1. Bills v. Vikings
  2. Bills v. Panthers
  3. Dolphins v. Giants
    • an extremely ironic one as the teams would with the seventeen-game schedule have been opposed every odd year since 2007
    • only the Jets v. the 49ers, who would have met every even year from 2004 to 2016, rival this
    • yet historically they did not meet at all between 1973 and 1989 inclusive
  4. Dolphins v. Bears
  5. Jets v. Lions
    • amongst these the extra game for the 0–16 2008 Lions — unlikely they would have avoided 0–17 if it had been played
  6. Jets v. Buccaneers
  7. Ravens v. Bears
  8. Ravens v. Saints
  9. Bengals v. Panthers
  10. Browns v. Buccaneers
  11. Steelers v. Falcons
  12. Texans v. Cardinals
  13. Jaguars v. Vikings
  14. Titans v. Cowboys
  15. Titans v. Bears
  16. Chiefs v. Cowboys
  17. Raiders v. Rams
  18. Chargers v. Cardinals
Except for the Titans against the Bears, the last five are a little ironic too as they are local interconference matchups. It’s notable that the Broncos, the Eagles and the Redskins would not have played three extra games against any one opponent over the nineteen years examined. The Redskins, Panthers, and Raiders would have played extra games against the greatest number of different opponents — fourteen — whilst the Lions and Buccaneers would have had only ten different extra-game opponents.

Tuesday, 14 April 2020

Docklands: an odd harbinger of sport‘s future

Although I have long been suspicious that – as those close to me like to presume – sport will return to something like what it was before the COVID-19 pandemic, this article by Dr. Ezekiel Emmanuel shows beyond doubt that this is unlikely.

For a start, no vaccine has been found against any past coronavirus. A drug is a more promising solution, but Dr. Emmanuel says that it is extremely unlikely that lockdown laws will end altogether for eighteen months, or before October 2021. In the context of the shut-down sporting industry, this has several implications:
  1. Given the extreme risk of transmission of such a contagious virus, it is unlikely spectators will attend again anywhere before the 2021/2022 southern summer sporting season
    • Even a return of spectators in 2021/2022 is by no means certain or even likely
    • The longest possible time before spectators might return is not even noted or discussed, as if it is plausible that many years might pass before spectators return
  2. Sports that do return will have to play with no spectators until at least the 2021/2022 southern summer season and possibly for many seasons beyond
  3. Sports that do play will be totally reliant on television (and perhaps radio) audiences for several complete seasons and a revised revenue model will be required
  4. It is quite probable that sports that do return will play in neutral venues in remote areas freed from COVID-19
So far, sporting commentators have ignored the long-term implications of the points noted above. However, it is clear to me from my knowledge of the history of cricket and [Australian rules] football that the unavailability of the traditional live audience will have profound, permanent, long-term effects on how sports are played:
  1. Because television’s main revenue source – corporate advertising – is likely to return several seasons before spectators do, television contracts will grow rapidly once sport returns without spectators
  2. Sports leagues and rule-makers will have at least one season and most likely three or four to adjust rules to make their sports more suitable for television
  3. These changes will no doubt:
    1. Make sporting contests much shorter and more stop-start-stop-start-stop to fit in more games and advertisements on television
    2. Make playing top-level sport more exclusive by requiring more specific and specialised body types to play particular sports
    3. Make playing sports much riskier because shorter playing periods and stop-start play will allow players to put much more energy into short bursts, creating much more intense contact (no necessarily player-to-player)
  4. The changes noted in (3) will make it much less worthwhile to attend sports with the much smaller quantity of play
  5. The requirement of strict quarantine for players to protect against contagious COVID-19 and future viruses will no doubt mean that sport will be much more confined to the major leagues than before the COVID-19 pandemic.
    • The only exception will be junior leagues for players too young to play in the major leagues
    • Rather than have minor leagues, players of lesser ability will serve in the major leagues as reserve players, creating systems akin to the “huge interchange bench” feared by Eddie McGuire in my old Football Year 1991
  6. Lack of minor leagues will produce much more pruning of junior players
    • However talent pools will be much smaller due to more rigid size requirements (à la telegenic basketball and volleyball) as discussed in point (3(3)).
  7. Players will be required to develop at much younger ages due to absence of opportunities in lower leagues for slow-developing talent.
    • Typically they will go from high school to high-level professional leagues – previously a great rarity seen only for such precocious talents as the late Kobe Bryant
There is, in fact, a very strong possibility that sports when they do return will be under a totally new model, but one reminiscent of the changes brought about on [Australian rules] football by the replacement of Waverley by Docklands twenty years ago. The creation of closed-roof stadiums has mimicked this to some extent in other sports, but it may not have had the same effect it has on football.

What is unique to the AFL but which COVID-19 may make the global norm is centralised grounds, where all matches are played at a few nearby venues. Although the AFL has centralised grounds only for its Melbourne matches, it is possible that MLB and the NHL may adopt this policy for entire post-COVID-19 leagues. It is indeed possible that outdated facilities – as the VFL’s old suburban grounds were due to of of government neglect, health regulations or fixed ticket prices – will not be replaced.

It is also possible that – as has happened in the AFL to a considerable extent since the phase-out of the suburban grounds – teams will no longer be identified geographically or locally but will be truly global businesses identified by name (what we could call “brand”). There is some advantage to this in that teams may not be able to be located in unviable markets and will have to work out themselves where to look for supporters; however, I have not spent any time looking at the full implications.

Whilst under present conditions this new model may be necessary, experience watching football and other sports makes me more than critical. It is a model of restricted opportunities, necessarily fast player development, and potentially very high injury risk. All of this I have recognised ever since studying not merely football and the transition to Docklands, but even cricket and the transition away from first-class cricket – which has been played for the last time before I write this – to one-day and 20/20 forms.