This third part of the study of the backlog of the Rock and Roll Hall of fame will cover artists who have been on exactly two previous ballots without being successfully inducted.
Before I look at the four serious candidates fitting this qualification, I will note four artists who would be in this or my previous post but have so little chance they should be looked at separately:
1) Johnny Ace
2) Esther Phillips
3) Mary Wells
and 4) Chuck Willis.
All of these were eligible when the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame was founded in 1985/1986 except Mary Wells who became eligible in 1986/1987. The last ballot appearance by any of them was in 1990/1991, which suggests that those in charge of the Rock Hall (who have not changed since then) do not consider these four to have the qualifications for induction.
The four other artists who have had exactly two previous ballot appearances (including this year) are:
1) The “5” Royales: Also eligible since the Rock Hall was founded, the "5" Royales are viewed as a major influence on famous soul singers like James Brown.
They were nominated for the ballot in 2001/2002 and 2003/2004, which does give some possibility that the Nominating Committee does not believe they could ever gain enough votes from record companies for induction (and they never got higher than #67 on Billboard's Singles Chart).
Still, with an aging Nominating Committee unlikely to consider any but the most obvious newly eligible artists or reconsider rejected ones eligible for a long time, doo-wop acts seem likely to be prominent until the core of the rap revolution is eligible. Though the "5" Royales were not strictly a doo-wop act, they have been associated thereby by music historians.
2) The J. Geils Band A popular artist in the early 1980s so that I can recall their "Centrefold" played all the time on TTFM's "Saturday Night Party" in the 1990s, they were first eligible as early as 1995/1996 but got on the ballot in 2005/2006 and again in 2006/2007.
Apart from "Centrefold" and "Freeze Frame", classic rock radio does not play them and critics have tended to ignore the claims of their music, which is very much the type of rock and roll the Nominating Committee grew up with.
It may be this facet of a Nominating Committee that is very much part of the Boom Generation that has made the J. Geils Band serious candidates - rather than artists whom most music fans and critics would consider more deserving. Even artists who had far more hits over the same timespan, like Hall & Oates are often snubbed in favour of groups like J. Geils and black artists of questionable credentials.
Unless Wenner and Landau become too ill to do the job they do now, it's unlikely much younger blood will be added to the Nominating Committee in the subsequent decade. Thus, one should give the J. Geils Band a chance.
3) Lou Reed (solo): Inducted with the Velvet Underground, Lou Reed had a more commercially successful solo career including hits in "Walk on the Wild Side" and in Australia, "Dirty Boulevard".
Though Reed's solo career has often been as acclaimed as his work with the Velvets, recent critics have tended to see it in a less favourable light: according to Joe S. Harrington, Lou Reed "hung in there and trashed the legend".
Reed made the Rock Hall ballot in 2000/2001 and 2001/2002, but seems now to be off the radar for a further nomination so he is the least likely of the four artists mentioned to reach the Hall artists
Monday, 6 October 2008
Thursday, 2 October 2008
The Rock Hall Backlog Part 2: Artists with more than two previous ballot appearances
Now that I have looked at the few artists listed as "Previously Considered: No" who might be seen as serious candidates in the future, I will look at the actual Rock Hall backlog in four stages as noted in my previous post, starting with artists with more than two previous ballot appearances.
Artists on the Rock Hall backlog with more than two previous ballot appearances include:
1) The Stooges: Critically acclaimed as one of the most important bands in rock history, the Stooges were first eligible in 1994/1995 and are on their seventh ballot.
Their influence on the late 1970s "punk revolution" and later hardcore is undeniable, and many critics I respect see them as close to the most important band in rock history. Their failure to gain commercial success (The Stooges made #106 on Billboard, but Fun House never dented the Top 200 and Raw Power only made #182) seems still to make them unknown to a large proportion of voters, especially those associated with record companies.
Still, back on the ballot after a year's absence, it is hard to see the Stooges not being in by 2011/2012. If they do get in this year, I imagine the Nominating Committee turning their attention to the MC5, the New York Dolls and even Captain Beefheart and trying to force them through in exactly the same way.
2) Chic: First eligible in 2002/2003, Chic have been on the past four ballots but those in the know are far from certain that they will get in on this ballot.
If Chic do not get in on this ballot, it is hard for me to believe the Nominating Committee won't keep nominating them until they get in. Unless they are not in by 2011/2012 (three more ballots after this year) Chic's induction is a practical certainty.
3) Gram Parsons Briefly a member of inductees The Byrds, Gram Parsons was nominated as a solo artist in 2001/2002, 2003/2004 and 2004/2005 without success. His second band the Flying Burrito Brothers has also been considered, and there is a possibility that the nominating Committee has given up on getting him in as a solo artist. For this reason, despite his supposed "critical favouritism", Parsons is not likely a high priority in clearing the backlog.
4) Joe Tex Less known to people of my age than The Stooges, Gram Parsons or Chic, Tex had hit singles with "Hold What You've Got", "I Want To (Do Everything For You)" and " You Better Get It". In doing so, he became the first Southern Soul singer to reach the Pop charts on any scale.
Eligible as far back as 1990/1991, Tex made the ballot in 1997/1998, 2006/2007 and 2007/2008. With the bias in the Hall towards 1950s, 1960s and 1970s black music, if War get in as I strongly suspect, unless the Hall Nominating Committee tries someone like Barry White, Tex will probably be back on the ballot in 2009/2010 with more chance of induction than before.
Tex's association with Atlantic Records, as some Rock Hall critics have noted, furthers the suggestion I imagine some have already articulated that there is serious bias among the Rock Hall's Nominating Committee.
Overall, Tex looks like a certain induction in the next three ballots, unless, like Parsons, they have "given up" on him.
5) Ben E. King: A very unlikely candidate, since he was last on the ballot in 1987/1988 and, depsite having written the standards "Stand By Me" and "Spanish Harlem", it's hard to see the Nominating Committee run so low on candidates that they turn to him. The most years between a first ballot appearance and an actual induction is fifteen years for Gene Pitney, first eligible in 1986/1987 but only inducted in 2001/2002.
Artists on the Rock Hall backlog with more than two previous ballot appearances include:
1) The Stooges: Critically acclaimed as one of the most important bands in rock history, the Stooges were first eligible in 1994/1995 and are on their seventh ballot.
Their influence on the late 1970s "punk revolution" and later hardcore is undeniable, and many critics I respect see them as close to the most important band in rock history. Their failure to gain commercial success (The Stooges made #106 on Billboard, but Fun House never dented the Top 200 and Raw Power only made #182) seems still to make them unknown to a large proportion of voters, especially those associated with record companies.
Still, back on the ballot after a year's absence, it is hard to see the Stooges not being in by 2011/2012. If they do get in this year, I imagine the Nominating Committee turning their attention to the MC5, the New York Dolls and even Captain Beefheart and trying to force them through in exactly the same way.
2) Chic: First eligible in 2002/2003, Chic have been on the past four ballots but those in the know are far from certain that they will get in on this ballot.
If Chic do not get in on this ballot, it is hard for me to believe the Nominating Committee won't keep nominating them until they get in. Unless they are not in by 2011/2012 (three more ballots after this year) Chic's induction is a practical certainty.
3) Gram Parsons Briefly a member of inductees The Byrds, Gram Parsons was nominated as a solo artist in 2001/2002, 2003/2004 and 2004/2005 without success. His second band the Flying Burrito Brothers has also been considered, and there is a possibility that the nominating Committee has given up on getting him in as a solo artist. For this reason, despite his supposed "critical favouritism", Parsons is not likely a high priority in clearing the backlog.
4) Joe Tex Less known to people of my age than The Stooges, Gram Parsons or Chic, Tex had hit singles with "Hold What You've Got", "I Want To (Do Everything For You)" and " You Better Get It". In doing so, he became the first Southern Soul singer to reach the Pop charts on any scale.
Eligible as far back as 1990/1991, Tex made the ballot in 1997/1998, 2006/2007 and 2007/2008. With the bias in the Hall towards 1950s, 1960s and 1970s black music, if War get in as I strongly suspect, unless the Hall Nominating Committee tries someone like Barry White, Tex will probably be back on the ballot in 2009/2010 with more chance of induction than before.
Tex's association with Atlantic Records, as some Rock Hall critics have noted, furthers the suggestion I imagine some have already articulated that there is serious bias among the Rock Hall's Nominating Committee.
Overall, Tex looks like a certain induction in the next three ballots, unless, like Parsons, they have "given up" on him.
5) Ben E. King: A very unlikely candidate, since he was last on the ballot in 1987/1988 and, depsite having written the standards "Stand By Me" and "Spanish Harlem", it's hard to see the Nominating Committee run so low on candidates that they turn to him. The most years between a first ballot appearance and an actual induction is fifteen years for Gene Pitney, first eligible in 1986/1987 but only inducted in 2001/2002.
The Rock Hall Backlog Part 1: Exceptional artists not considered by the Nominating Committee who may have a chance
Now that I have explained the Rock Hall backlog, I will look at the artists in the backlog in eight stages:
Part 1: Exceptional artists not considered by the Nominating Committee who may have a chance owing to the low relevance of their earliest recorded output
Part 2: Artists with more than two previous ballot appearances"
Part 3: Artists with exactly two previous ballot appearances
Part 4: Artists with one previous ballot appearance
Part 5: Discrepant artists between lists of the "previously considered".
Part 6: "Popular" artists with consistent previous votes from the Nominating Committee but no ballot appearances
Part 7: Acclaimed "cult" artists with consistent previous votes from the Nominating Committee but no ballot appearances
Part 8: Artists from genres unrepresented in the Hall (or almost so) with consistent previous votes from the Nominating Committee but no ballot appearances
I pointed out in my previous post, how useless it is considering artists without previous votes from the nominating committee. The few exceptions or possible exceptions exist if and only if their earliest recorded output is so different from that which established the artist's legacy that it might not be noticed by the Nominating Committee.
In these cases, when the important part of the artists' output celebrates the 25th anniversary, or soon after, the artist should be considered if they have a chance.
I will look at these artists before getting onto the Rock Hall backlog proper. It is important not to assume these artists can in any way be considered part of the Rock Hall backlog, though.
1) Janet Jackson: since her first two albums Janet Jackson and Dream Street were very unsuccessful and do not reflect the style that made her famous with Jimmy Jam and Terry Lewis. Once Control celebrates its 25th anniversary, it will be hard to see Janet not being considered.
2) Pantera: though not likely to be inducted until at least 2015/2016 (and if their induction is far from improbable it may take years after that), they are worth noting here because their first four albums Metal Magic (1983), Projects in the Jungle (1984), I Am the Night (1985) and Power Metal (1988), were of a completely different style from the groove metal of their recognised albums. They were KISS-type glam metal but failed completely in commercial terms. With the exception of Power Metal, Phil Anselmo was also not in the band, Terry Glaze being the vocalist.
(The way I see it, Pantera are proof that the simple criterion of 25 years after first release is flawed. I have thought that 25 years after first artist-acknowledged release might be a better criterion, which would make Pantera eligible in 2015/2016).
3) Ministry: a major influence on likely inductee Nine Inch Nails, Al Jourgensen vehemently disowns their pre-1986 output which was synth-pop rather than industrial metal. Ministry are a quite possible exception if industrial become acknowledge by the Hall. Whether industrial belongs in the Rock Hall is an interesting question that no one has ever considered and probably will not before Nine Inch Nails become eligible.
4) Talk Talk are a possible exception if and only if the post-rock movement of the 1990s is acknowledged.
Part 1: Exceptional artists not considered by the Nominating Committee who may have a chance owing to the low relevance of their earliest recorded output
Part 2: Artists with more than two previous ballot appearances"
Part 3: Artists with exactly two previous ballot appearances
Part 4: Artists with one previous ballot appearance
Part 5: Discrepant artists between lists of the "previously considered".
Part 6: "Popular" artists with consistent previous votes from the Nominating Committee but no ballot appearances
Part 7: Acclaimed "cult" artists with consistent previous votes from the Nominating Committee but no ballot appearances
Part 8: Artists from genres unrepresented in the Hall (or almost so) with consistent previous votes from the Nominating Committee but no ballot appearances
I pointed out in my previous post, how useless it is considering artists without previous votes from the nominating committee. The few exceptions or possible exceptions exist if and only if their earliest recorded output is so different from that which established the artist's legacy that it might not be noticed by the Nominating Committee.
In these cases, when the important part of the artists' output celebrates the 25th anniversary, or soon after, the artist should be considered if they have a chance.
I will look at these artists before getting onto the Rock Hall backlog proper. It is important not to assume these artists can in any way be considered part of the Rock Hall backlog, though.
1) Janet Jackson: since her first two albums Janet Jackson and Dream Street were very unsuccessful and do not reflect the style that made her famous with Jimmy Jam and Terry Lewis. Once Control celebrates its 25th anniversary, it will be hard to see Janet not being considered.
2) Pantera: though not likely to be inducted until at least 2015/2016 (and if their induction is far from improbable it may take years after that), they are worth noting here because their first four albums Metal Magic (1983), Projects in the Jungle (1984), I Am the Night (1985) and Power Metal (1988), were of a completely different style from the groove metal of their recognised albums. They were KISS-type glam metal but failed completely in commercial terms. With the exception of Power Metal, Phil Anselmo was also not in the band, Terry Glaze being the vocalist.
(The way I see it, Pantera are proof that the simple criterion of 25 years after first release is flawed. I have thought that 25 years after first artist-acknowledged release might be a better criterion, which would make Pantera eligible in 2015/2016).
3) Ministry: a major influence on likely inductee Nine Inch Nails, Al Jourgensen vehemently disowns their pre-1986 output which was synth-pop rather than industrial metal. Ministry are a quite possible exception if industrial become acknowledge by the Hall. Whether industrial belongs in the Rock Hall is an interesting question that no one has ever considered and probably will not before Nine Inch Nails become eligible.
4) Talk Talk are a possible exception if and only if the post-rock movement of the 1990s is acknowledged.
The 2008/2009 ballot and how it will affect the Rock Hall backlog
In my previous post, I said I would be looking at the backlog of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and attempt to see which artists will be cleared betwen now and when the next major newly eligible artists appear in 2012/2013.
Whether artists like
- Bon Jovi
- the Butthole Surfers
- Cyndi Lauper
- Slayer
- the Smiths or
- Stevie Ray Vaughan
were discussed by the nominating committee is yet unknown, but even if some of them were, it is by no means certain they will get on the ballot any time soon. Importantly, as Future Rock Hall points out, it is extremely unwise to predict the induction of any artist who has not been previously considered by the Nominating Committee. With the low turnover of membership and the control of Jann Wenner and John Landau it is exceedingly improbable that Committee members would either change their mind about an artist or newly appointed members would have different opinions. Exceptions only exist if an artist's earliest recordings have been either:
1) disowned or
2) not widely released or
3) recorded by a band very different from the one which garnered fame, influence or critical acclaim
The candidates for the 2008/2009 ballot are:
- Jeff Beck
- Chic
- Wanda Jackson
- Little Anthony and the Imperials
- Metallica
- Run DMC
- the Stooges
- War
- Bobby Womack
It is very hard for me to say who will be inducted. The nearest analogues to the obvious candidates in Metallica and the Stooges (Black Sabbath, the Sex Pistols and Patti Smith) took around five ballots each to be inducted. Even Run-DMC, whom I initially saw as the most certain candidate, have as their nearest analogue Grandmaster Flash who still took several ballots to get in. In contrast, the lesser-known artists like solo Jeff Beck, War, Bobby Womack (proof they have a bias in favour of 60s and 70s black music) and Little Anthony and the Imperials have amongst their nearest analogues artists who got in very quickly after reaching the ballot.
What this does mean is that if Metallica, Chic, Run-DMC and the Stooges do not get in, the Rock Hall will probably keep trying to nominate them through at least the next three ballots. If they do get in, I am much less sure that those four artists not elected will be repeatedly nominated between 2009/2010 and 2011/2012 and there will be more artists from the backlog to consider.
I do guess Metallica, the Stooges and Run-DMC will get in, but I feel little guilt if I'm completely wrong.
Whether artists like
- Bon Jovi
- the Butthole Surfers
- Cyndi Lauper
- Slayer
- the Smiths or
- Stevie Ray Vaughan
were discussed by the nominating committee is yet unknown, but even if some of them were, it is by no means certain they will get on the ballot any time soon. Importantly, as Future Rock Hall points out, it is extremely unwise to predict the induction of any artist who has not been previously considered by the Nominating Committee. With the low turnover of membership and the control of Jann Wenner and John Landau it is exceedingly improbable that Committee members would either change their mind about an artist or newly appointed members would have different opinions. Exceptions only exist if an artist's earliest recordings have been either:
1) disowned or
2) not widely released or
3) recorded by a band very different from the one which garnered fame, influence or critical acclaim
The candidates for the 2008/2009 ballot are:
- Jeff Beck
- Chic
- Wanda Jackson
- Little Anthony and the Imperials
- Metallica
- Run DMC
- the Stooges
- War
- Bobby Womack
It is very hard for me to say who will be inducted. The nearest analogues to the obvious candidates in Metallica and the Stooges (Black Sabbath, the Sex Pistols and Patti Smith) took around five ballots each to be inducted. Even Run-DMC, whom I initially saw as the most certain candidate, have as their nearest analogue Grandmaster Flash who still took several ballots to get in. In contrast, the lesser-known artists like solo Jeff Beck, War, Bobby Womack (proof they have a bias in favour of 60s and 70s black music) and Little Anthony and the Imperials have amongst their nearest analogues artists who got in very quickly after reaching the ballot.
What this does mean is that if Metallica, Chic, Run-DMC and the Stooges do not get in, the Rock Hall will probably keep trying to nominate them through at least the next three ballots. If they do get in, I am much less sure that those four artists not elected will be repeatedly nominated between 2009/2010 and 2011/2012 and there will be more artists from the backlog to consider.
I do guess Metallica, the Stooges and Run-DMC will get in, but I feel little guilt if I'm completely wrong.
Wednesday, 1 October 2008
Introducing the Rock Hall backlog
Ever since the 2008/2009 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame inductees were announced, one thing has been made clear to me.
That being that until Public Enemy, N.W.A., The Pixies and Soundgarden become eligible in 2012/2013, there are at most four newly eligible artists likely to be on a Rock and Roll Hall of Fame ballot. The only near certainty is Guns'n'Roses, who will likely be among the inductees for 2011/2012. The other three are:
- the Red Hot Chili Peppers, who are not the certainty people think when you learn their first two albums were recorded with a different lineup (ex-Magic Band drummer Cliff Martinez) and never dented the Top 200.
- the Pet Shop Boys, who have enough respect but are far from certain simply because they lack the "superstar" status
- and rapper LL Cool J, whose induction will depend on how rap goes with the Nominating Committee.
This means that, if we want to predict with the slightest success the inductees for 2009/2010, 2010/2011 and 2011/2012, we need to look at the Rock Hall's backlog. This backlog consists of artists who have either
1) reached the ballot but never been elected
2) received numerous votes from the Nominating Committee but never enough to reach any final ballot
The next posts will contain a detailed analysis of the Rock Hall backlog and look at which artists are likely to be cleared from it during the 2009/2010, 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 inductions.
That being that until Public Enemy, N.W.A., The Pixies and Soundgarden become eligible in 2012/2013, there are at most four newly eligible artists likely to be on a Rock and Roll Hall of Fame ballot. The only near certainty is Guns'n'Roses, who will likely be among the inductees for 2011/2012. The other three are:
- the Red Hot Chili Peppers, who are not the certainty people think when you learn their first two albums were recorded with a different lineup (ex-Magic Band drummer Cliff Martinez) and never dented the Top 200.
- the Pet Shop Boys, who have enough respect but are far from certain simply because they lack the "superstar" status
- and rapper LL Cool J, whose induction will depend on how rap goes with the Nominating Committee.
This means that, if we want to predict with the slightest success the inductees for 2009/2010, 2010/2011 and 2011/2012, we need to look at the Rock Hall's backlog. This backlog consists of artists who have either
1) reached the ballot but never been elected
2) received numerous votes from the Nominating Committee but never enough to reach any final ballot
The next posts will contain a detailed analysis of the Rock Hall backlog and look at which artists are likely to be cleared from it during the 2009/2010, 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 inductions.
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