Tuesday, 10 May 2022

A circuitous trip and a famous joke from time past

In the late 1990s — the same time I first studied Socialist Alternative, Socialist Worker and Green Left Weekly and was startled at how they demonstrated political reality as completely different from what I learned in school — I briefly collected bus timetables in Melbourne. I was quietly appalled by the quality of service vis-à-vis what books like Environment, Capitalism and Socialism or even the more moderate Public Transport Users’ Association demonstrated as requisite for sustainable transport in Melbourne.

At the same time, my brother was critical of my interest in travelling on buses — an interest that has continued to this day. I often joke that
“if you want to understand global warming, ride on Melbourne’s bus services”
because it is clear to me that the woeful quality of bus and other public transport serves is a critical reason why Australia is rated the worst-performing nation in the world re greenhouse gas emissions. (At the same time, ecology increasing demonstrates Australia is required to be by far the best performed nation, as far ahead of the pack as Port Adelaide in the 1914 SAFL or Yorkshire in the 1901 County Championship).

Yesterday, after a brief conversation with my mother, I was allowed to spend my first day riding buses since the COVID pandemic. Before COVID, I would often spend days riding buses around Melbourne, and enjoyed it even though there often is not much to see from inside a bus.

I had had a plan to go on a bus route that I recall laughing about with my brother a great deal during the late 1990s — the bus from Moonee Ponds to Niddrie via Strathmore. My brother called that route, then numbered 501,
“a classically circuitous route”
at the same time as he complained a great deal about how circuitous almost all bus routes were vis-à-vis trains or trams. When I took this “classically circuitous route”, I was taken by what I thought was a joke saying (as I strongly recall it):
WHY IS THIS BUS
THE 501?
BECAUSE THAT IS THE PROBABILITY THAT IT WILL
BE EARLY OR LATE:
5/1

When I first read that, I presumed that meant the odds of it being early or late were 5 to 1 — which means it was on time five times out of six. My brother, however, said that it is much more likely that the old writing I had seen — if I recall correctly near Strathmore shops — was not a joke but an angry response to a user’s experience. That is, it was either early or late five times out of six, and on time only one time out of six. Actual experience does not tell me which is right, although I have ridden on buses many times, and they are often late though rarely outright cancelled as trains sometimes are.

At the same time, of course, the 501 could not plausibly have actually received its route number from being early or late five times out of six!

Yesterday, my first plan was to ride on the “classically circuitous” route, now part of the 469 alongside a modified Niddrie to East Keilor section from the old route 475. When I did this, I scanned reasonably carefully but could not see the old 501 writing noted above — it may well have been removed long before the route was modified — but I did find the long circuitous trip and the beef burger at Milleara Mall quite interesting. The terrain around Strathmore Heights is quite steep, even scenic, as is the lake area to the south of the Calder Freeway. 

Saturday, 7 May 2022

Are the “Big Five” dictators a correct assumption?

 For many years, I have assumed that the worst dictators in (at least) modern history have been:

  • Joseph Stalin (lived 1878-1953)
  • Adolf Hitler (lived 1889-1945)
  • Mao Zedong (lived 1893-1976)
  • Pol Pot (lived 1925-1998)
  • Saddam Hussein (lived 1937-2006)

The reason for this is that Stalin, Hitler, Mao and Pol Pot were the largest killers from famines and/or genocides, whilst Hussein was both an extreme warmonger and also genocidally exterminated many Kurdish populations with poison gas in northern Iraq.

Most people around me have found this an absurd list, but after re-watching the Evolution of Evil series on YouTube tonight, I googled for a list of worst dictators and found ‘The Top 10 Worst Dictators in History’ by Larry Slawson — who received his Masters Degree at UNC Charlotte and specializes in Russian and Ukrainian history.

Slawsons’s list was:

  1. Mao Zedong
  2. Genghis Khan
  3. Joseph Stalin
  4. Adolf Hitler
  5. Leopold II
  6. Pol Pot
  7. Saddam Hussein
  8. Idi Amin
  9. Vlad the Impaler
  10. Ivan the Terrible

It surprised me a lot to see the familiar “big five” dictators (in bold) were in the top seven, separated from each other only by two older rulers. This does suggest to me that — perhaps not as usually as I would wish because of inability to be sceptical without clear refutation about extreme views — my judgment is reasonably accurate. The list could also be a reflection of potential bias, given that the death tolls attributed to Stalin and Mao by writers like Paul Kengor do not seem to be accepted by academic scholars away from the conservative “Christian madrassas” (as my brother calls them) like Kengor’s Grove City College or Benjamin Wiker’s former Franciscan University of Steubenville. Still, I was oddly surprised by what I read on such a brief glance.

Thursday, 5 May 2022

The harsh reality of Nazi and Communist sympathy — trivialised too often

In recent years, in an attempt to dissect the old Politically Incorrect Guide series, my brother and mother have frequently noted that the founder of Regnery Publishing, Henry Regnery, was a Nazi sympathiser. This despite the fact that Regnery’s books are never supportive of the Nazis and frequently critical.

However, the reality about Nazi sympathisers, as shown by Clement Leibovitz during the 1990s in his book In Our Time: The Chamberlain-Hitler Collusion, which I have been reading recently, is much darker than merely heroes of the extreme right being Nazi sympathisers. Leibovitz demonstrated, in fact, that a clear majority of the ruling classes even in those nations that remained democratic were Nazi sympathisers. Moreover, even those portions of the ruling classes of the democratic survivors who were not Nazi sympathisers had negligible sympathy for liberal democracy. They saw democracy as only a temporary compromise with workers’ demand for a revolution to eliminate ruling classes entirely before — as had been done throughout Central and Eastern Europe except Czechoslovakia — defeating the workers completely and restoring a status quo ante where workers lacked the political and legal rights (like the right to vote, the right to unionise, the right to strike, and freedom of speech) gained since the 1860s.

Leibovitz shows that the overwhelming goal of the British and French ruling classes — and presumably the ruling classes of other remaining democracies in Europe, not to mention the US, Canada and Australia — was to overthrow the Bolshevik regime by whatever means necessary. He demonstrates that they never accepted the existence of the Soviet Union, even after Stalin relinquished the goal of international revolution. It was this desire to overthrow the Soviet government, which had been consistently dominant within the Western ruling classes, that drove their strong sympathy for Nazism and their appeasement policy.

At the same time, Leibovitz — much more than even Trotskyist groups like Socialist Alternative, the International Socialist Organisation and the Democratic Socialist Party — conclusively demonstrates that the working classes of Western Europe overwhelmingly sympathised with the Soviet government. Of course, the majority of Europe’s working classes had supported the spread of the Bolshevik Revolution back at the tail end of the 1910s. Once revelations of real wages cut by a third or more, and loss of hard-won rights to form unions and to strike in Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy appeared, the working classes of surviving European democracies became desperate to have Hitler and Mussolini overthrown, or minimally prevented from expanding by force. That idea drew overwhelming opposition amongst their ruling classes, who knew it would result in the spread of Bolshevism — something they could not tolerate.

Leibovitz also conclusively shows just how much Thomas Woods (in the Politically Incorrect Guide to American History) and Paul Kengor (in the Politically Incorrect Guide to Communism) trivialise sympathy for Lenin and Communism in general. Kengor’s claim of 25 percent of Millennials having a favourable view of Lenin is insignificant when it is observed that probably over 90 percent of industrial workers in Europe in the late 1910s and early 1920s had a favourable view of the Russian Revolution’s leader. Woods’ focus on Communist sympathisers in American government and Hollywood is similarly ridiculous. Even in the 1930s most workers in Britain and France sympathised with Russia as much or more than with their own government, while when Lenin was alive Western Europe’s industrial working class observed how a workers’ revolution could transform society. They not merely wanted to emulate what Russia’s workers had done, but believed they were capable of emulating them locally.

Leibovitz also shows that the only thing that limited the ruling classes’ ability to let Hitler and Mussolini expand east and destroy the USSR was popular — which can only mean lower class — opposition to those dictators, and/or support for the Soviet Union. Even if working class excitement had died down by the 1930s, the USSR remained the enemy of every paramount enemy of the workers — Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, and the Catholic and Orthodox Churches. Thus, even if they disagreed with Stalin’s policies and/or practices, the working classes in the surviving democracies still wanted the USSR to survive.

All this points to a harsh reality: extremely few people in interwar Europe sympathised with liberal democracy. Generally, the ruling and middle classes desired right-wing authoritarian regimes, whilst the working classes desired revolutionary socialism: a society without bosses or profits where all decisions were made directly under workers’ control, far more democratic than familiar systems of liberal democracy. Even when the ruling classes did very reluctantly accept fighting the Nazis — and as Leibovitz shows most therein privately thought they were fighting the “wrong” enemy — they did not come to accept liberal democracy as a “good”. The workers, for their part, overlooked the brutality of Stalin’s regime and the reality of his counterrevolution because Stalin’s Russia at least publicly opposed what they hated the most: right-wing authoritarianism and the Catholic Church.

Saturday, 30 April 2022

The localisation of “dangerous” academics

During the middle 2000s the seemingly — and in some ways actually — inadequate and unconvincing responses of groups like Socialist Alternative, Socialist Worker and Resistance to the September 11 terrorist attacks turned me somewhat away from these groups. Unfortunately, what I turned to as an alternative was much, much worse than any flaws in the radical left — into reading, on the assumption of “true unless refutable”, the propaganda of the anti-democratic Republican Party.

Republican propaganda is not ipso facto internally consistent. I early on noted contradictions between The Politically Incorrect Guide to Islam and the later Politically Incorrect Guide to the Middle East, accepting the former’s much more convincing view that Saudi Arabia was an extremely dangerous ally of the US. However, one of the worst examples of Republican propaganda that I partially took on board during this period was David Horowitz’ 2006 The Professors: The 101 Most Dangerous Academics in America. It was a standard mantra of the Republican Party that American universities are hotbeds of left-wing radicalism, and as a lover of lists I used my brother’s card to borrow The Professors from Monash.

Even reading when less critical of the extreme right, I saw many flaws in The Professors despite possessing little knowledge of the vast majority. What Horowitz’ said that I did know something about seemed extremely flawed, sometimes to the point of being absolute errors. Re-reading when one learns more has made me far more disbelieving of Horowitz’ claims, which sources like the World Socialist Web Site have demonstrated as contrary to fact.

What is really revealing is that Horowitz’ “dangerous professors” are geographically remarkably concentrated, as can be seen from the table below where the 101 “most dangerous” academics are listed by the state they worked in. In order to account for bias from institutions with many “dangerous” academics, I have included an additional column listing how many different institutions in each state had professors profiled in Horowitz’ book. Different campuses of the same university are counted as one because they are likely to be politically similar and might work together.

 

Professors

Institutions

Alabama

0

0

Alaska

0

0

Arizona

0

0

Arkansas

0

0

California

16

6

Colorado

6

4

Connecticut

0

0

Delaware

0

0

District of Columbia

4

1

Florida

1

1

Georgia

1

1

Hawaii

1

1

Idaho

0

0

Illinois

7

4

Indiana

3

3

Iowa

0

0

Kansas

0

0

Kentucky

1

1

Louisiana

0

0

Maine

0

0

Maryland

0

0

Massachusetts

6

5

Michigan

2

1

Minnesota

0

0

Mississippi

0

0

Missouri

1

1

Montana

0

0

Nebraska

0

0

Nevada

0

0

New Hampshire

0

0

New Jersey

2

2

New Mexico

0

0

New York

25

9

North Carolina

3

2

North Dakota

0

0

Ohio

3

3

Oklahoma

0

0

Oregon

1

1

Pennsylvania

10

5

Rhode Island

1

1

South Carolina

0

0

South Dakota

0

0

Tennessee

0

0

Texas

5

3

Utah

0

0

Vermont

0

0

Virginia

0

0

Washington

2

2

West Virginia

0

0

Wisconsin

0

0

Wyoming

0

0

TOTAL

101

57

Although I was unable to draw a precise map as I intended when planning this post, it is striking that thirty of fifty states are not home to a single one of these academics listed as “dangerous” by Horowitz. Apart from four universities in Colorado and three in Texas, the entire area between the Mississippi and the Cascades is entirely unrepresented, as is Upper New England and even Connecticut. The Deep South has only two academics, and including Texas the remainder of the South has just eleven.

The Northeast, contrariwise, is academically home to forty-eight of the 101 most dangerous academics. More than that, a quarter worked in New York alone, and sixteen (one-sixth) in New York City alone. What this confirms is that opposition to the policies of the Republican Party is massively concentrated in a few areas, and is exceedingly weak elsewhere. For Americans who have no exposure to the ideas offered by so-called “dangerous” academics, Republican propaganda constitutes an unchallenged message, regardless of what Republican spokespeople and think tanks say.

Sunday, 24 April 2022

Another sequence of note

In addition to the pentatrigesimal sequences I looked at last year — based upon using all numbers and latters except O — I have studied another sequence of numbers which I will tabulate below. Of the first 104 terms which I am tabulating, one is not yet known and is shaded in grey background with white text.

n

p

2

2

3

71

4

0

5

11

6

29

7

131

8

0

9

0

10

23

11

73

12

97

13

137

14

41

15

43

16

0

17

419

18

25667

19

59

20

1487

21

156217

22

79

23

3181

24

53

25

0

26

347

27

0

28

457

29

151

30

163

31

5581

32

0

33

197

34

1493

35

313

36

0

37

251

38

401

39

349

40

751

41

83

42

1319

43

6277

44

167

45

3319

46

67

47

18013

48

383

49

0

50

6521

51

4229

52

257

53

1571

54

389

55

839

56

157

57

16963

58

2333

59

479

60

173

61

37

62

757

63

3067

64

0

65

375017

66

19973

67

367

68

2767

69

2371

70

761

71

1583

72

227

73

110603

74

191

75

739

76

439

77

15361

78

1949

79

659

80

>399989

81

0

82

7607

83

2713

84

3917

85

2111

86

113

87

121487

88

577

89

571

90

5209

91

4421

92

13001

93

4903

94

170371

95

523

96

3343

97

1693

98

2801

99

5563

100

0

101

677

102

673

103

1549

104

263

105

4783

This sequence is — in essence — the inverse of OEIS sequence A066180. The nth term of this sequence is the smallest prime for which n is the smallest base yielding a generalised repunit prime. Alternatively, the nth term is defined as the first prime number yielding n in sequence A066180.

For bases that are perfect powers, generalised repunits can be factored algebraically and the sequence has the value 0. For base 65 — until the recent discovery of the probable prime 65375017-1/64 — and base 80, no known generalised repunit prime exists or existed without a smaller base yielding a generalised repunit prime, as can be seen from the table below:

base

primes

Smaller bases where Rp is prime

65

19

2, 10, 11, 12, 14, 19, 24, 40, 45, 46, 48

29

6, 40

631

39

80

3

2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 12, 14, 15, 17, 20, 21, 24, 27, 33, 38, 41, 50, 54, 57, 59, 62

7

2, 3, 5, 6, 13, 14, 26, 31, 38, 40, 46, 56, 60, 61, 66, 68, 72, 73

At present I am not sure over what range bases 65 and 80 have been checked, although data for adjacent bases from Henri and Renauld Lifchitz suggests they have probably been checked up to around four hundred thousand without additional generalised repunit primes being discovered.

As a last word, it might be noted that, of the first three hundred primes (up to 1987), eighty-three do not appear in this sequence at all, viz:

3

5

7

13

17

19

23

31

47

61

73

89

97

101

103

107

109

127

131

137

139

149

181

211

269

271

283

317

337

353

359

409

433

449

463

487

509

521

541

569

587

593

607

619

631

653

661

701

757

769

821

857

883

907

929

971

991

1013

1021

1031

1049

1061

1069

1087

1091

1151

1181

1193

1277

1279

1297

1303

1367

1409

1423

1487

1627

1699

1721

1759

1789

1861

1907

 

For these primes, the first base yielding a generalised repunit prime is also the first such base for a smaller prime. For instance:
  1. for 3, 5, and 7, base 2 is the first such base, but 22-1 is also prime
  2. for 103, 541, 1091 and 1367, base 3 is the first base yielding a prime but (371-1)/2 is also prime
  3. for 317 and 1031, base 10 is the first base yielding a prime, but (1023-1)/9 is also prime