Monday, 30 August 2021

Is this a verification or not of conventional democratisation theories?

Over recent weeks and months, my brother has consistently said that the middle classes have always been the drivers of democratisation, an idea that contradicts the explicit and implicit viewpoints of both the Trotskyists and the anti-democratic far right. Both have said democratisation is driven by the poor and working classes, differing greatly of course in the evaluation of their intentions – the Trotkyists view democratisation as driven by a lower class fight for justice whereas the anti-democratic far right view it as driven by pure envy.

This morning, however, I found a fourteen-year-old Socialist Worker article (‘What Is Real Democracy?’) that on first sight suggest that my image acquired from Trotskyists of democracy as a product of class struggle by the working classes is not perfectly accurate. Author John Molyneux argues that the roots of modern democracy came from the early entrepreneurs known as burghers (from which we get bourgeoisie) who resented the power of the feudal aristocracy and the royal families. Democracy developed because the new bourgeoisie needed allies amongst the lower classes in order to defeat the old feudal ruling class. Nevertheless, the bourgeoisie rejected even the very limited democracy of universal suffrage, and was only forced to grant it by the pressure of the working classes, although Molyneux argues that there was always some pressure for inclusion of lower classes.

If we look at Molyneux’ assessment, I will first note that pre-Reformation Christianity was intransigently opposed to minimal democracy, as is discussed by Vladimir Moss. Both Catholicism and Orthodoxy viewed democracy as per se atheistic and anarchistic. As Socialist Worker notes here, this view was never challenged until the Radical Reformation. I will next note that Molyneaux never mentions the middle classes as an agent of democratisation in themselves, only noting the urban poor and peasantry as allies of the bourgeoisie. He does not discuss the position of the petit-bourgeoisie in these struggles at all, failing even to note that the petit-bourgeoisie (at least the rural petit-bourgeoisie) possessed the necessary property to vote in the early constitutional oligarchies of Britain and the Netherlands. Nor, critically, does Molyneux discuss the differences between the four struggles which he mentions, especially between the conservative American Revolution and the much more radical French Revolution which actually began as a radical peasant struggle.

So, actually, whilst Molyneux does in some respects challenge the theory that democracy emerged purely and simply out of the struggles of the poor, he does not accept in any way the conventional role of the middle classes in democratisation. Rather, Molyneux, in effect, is arguing that democratisation results from severe elite conflict allowing the mobilisation of the poor. His argument is very incomplete: when he says:

“Increasingly the bourgeoisie came to resent the arbitrary hereditary power of the aristocracy, which they believed to be holding back not only their own advancement but also society as a whole”
he does not discuss why the bourgeoisie resented the aristocracy. The history of many states that have remained authoritarian, especially in the Middle East and East Asia, shows that there is no necessary hostility between the bourgeoisie and the older aristocracy, and that the bourgeoisie can often incorporate itself into an aristocratic government.

For these reasons, it is not true, as I somewhat naïvely thought on first reading, that Socialist Worker accepts the conventional line of the middle classes causing democratisation. Rather, they argue, as Red Flag has more recently, that
“...when a major class struggle breaks out, they [the middle classes] are relatively powerless. Unlike the capitalist class, they don’t decide what happens on a grand scale. Unlike the working class, they can’t usually affect the economy by going on strike, and they have no collective power to create a new, better society.”
and that this powerlessness and that the middle classes can never represent “ordinary, everyday people” is reflected in middle class political history.

The problem of testing and of capitalism – as Victoria moves towards a completely failed lockdown

The past three weeks have been depressing as COVID-19 numbers in Victoria continue to rise without the slightest sign that they will ever fall. Yesterday – a day of reduced testing as is supposedly typical fo weekends – there were 73 cases in the community, and there is not the slightest sign that mystery cases are falling. What is worse still is that there is no academic study of why Victoria’s lockdown has failed, and I am quite suspicious academics attempting to do so will say something politically taboo (as I will discuss later).

It is virtually certain that this lockdown, originally scheduled for a week. is likely to be indefinite and most likely to last for a year or longer, with catastrophic effects on all but the biggest businesses. COVID case numbers are almost certain, as one commentator on Twitter said, to rise far above the present horrific 1,218 seen in New South Wales yesterday. The predicted number by November – when the state came out of a lockdown against a much less contagious COVID variant that was caused like the present one by a negligently prematurely easing restrictions whilst COVID was abundant in the community – is over 2,000 per day. However, with numbers doubling every week or so under restrictions similar to last year, COVID numbers in Victoria would actually reach 23,000 cases per day by the end of October!

Politicians are repetitively saying that the government is doing its best, despite the fact that personal experience says clearly that rules are not being enforced and that there is inadequate effort to test residents as soon as COVID-19 is detected in wastewater. The number of people lying around parks that are supposed to be closed is quite alarming, and what is needed is to have steel fences so that people cannot lie around parks. Reports I have read say that closed parks have been bound with tape and plastic that people can cut in the simplest manner with household scissors!

The belief is that once the supply of vaccines against COVID is improved, then restrictions will be able to be eliminated and businesses return to normal. However, Red Flag (the current version of Socialist Alternative, which I read extensively as a student two decades ago) and the World Socialist Web Site here and here have demonstrated that it is a lie that the government is doing everything possible. The WSWS demonstrate that vaccines will be at best a very short-term solution as increasing resistance and an increasing number of even more virulent and contagious strains means that in a very short time numbers will rise even more rapidly than they are today, at least under imperfectly enforced lockdown measures without full wage payment to all workers. Without full wage payment until COVID is eradicated, it is difficult or impossible for workers to get test before they have spent multiple weeks infectious in the community. Commentators much more conservative than Red Flag or the WSWS have argued that the abolition of Jobkeeper this very month may be an important factor preventing numbers going down.

The WSWS demonstrate that if all resources held by the richest 1 percent were transferred globally to eradication of COVID at a global scale, such eradication could easily be achieved before even more potent, contagious and vaccine-resistant strains emerge. The WSWS demonstrate that there is no way strains even more contagious and potent than the currently dominant Delta will not emerge. As Red Flag said in the aftermath of the Trump victory in 2017, public support for much higher taxes, possibly even for expropriation, of the rich has zero effect on policies that are entirely controlled by business. Red Flag show that the only way the immense majority can have their voices heard is by

“...revolutionary organising centres, where striking workers and mutinying soldiers can coordinate their defiance, robbing our exploiters of the ability to wield economic and political force against us [workers]”
What is clear is that COVID can only be stopped by a complete expropriation of the world’s capitalists – and that without it the world’s poor will face a complete and permanent loss of freedoms taken for granted in nominally democratic countries – most critically freedom to travel and freedom of choice in food and other products. Without expropriation to the final cent of the wealth of the super-rich, and its transfer to pay for essential health for the poor at no cost, the COVID pandemic will never end.

Saturday, 21 August 2021

Wendell Berry's 6 favorite books about environmental protection

Although I have known of Wendell Berry, a controversial though admired farmer and writer from Kentucky’s Henry County, since the 1990s, it is only today when browsing through Front Porch Republic that I discovered this list titled “Wendell Berry's 6 favorite books about environmental protection: the poet and environmental activist recommends inspiring works about how to interact with the land”.
  1. Farmers of Forty Centuries: Organic Farming in China, Korea, and Japan by F. H. King
  2. Tree Crops: A Permanent Agriculture by J. Russell Smith 
  3. An Agricultural Testament by Sir Albert Howard
  4. A Sand County Almanac by Aldo Leopold
  5. Home Place: Essays on Ecology by Stan Rowe
  6. Nature as Measure: The Selected Essays of Wes Jackson
I find some of the choices especially revealing in a world where the free market directs agriculture to the very countries possessing the oldest, most leached, and most infertile soils alongside the scarcest and most unreliable water resources. As early as 2008 James Kenneth Galbraith in his The Predatory State hinted at the problems posed by specialising in agriculture, although without any consideration of the disadvantages specialisers in agriculture actually have relative to countries with immense comparative disadvantage in agriculture.

The first book on the list, published in 1929 before the “Green Revolution” intensified the Enriched World’s comparative disadvantage in agriculture, illustrates how it is possible to sustain agriculture in favourable climates and young soils. The second illustrates why annual crops are ill-suited outside the Enriched World except in certain Tropical World regions of unusually fertile soils that share the Enriched World’s general agricultural comparative disadvantage. The third, fifth and sixth books appear less interesting, whilst A Sand County Almanac is a familiar American environmental classic which I have never read.

All in all, these books do illustrate the way in which intensive farming was sustained in the Enriched World, which has bene the success of the localist and organic farming movements. Their failure has been to not recognise the ipso facto unsustainability of farming many regions – all of Australia and many parts of Africa, tropical Asia and non-Hispanophone South America – and to campaign for appropriate land uses in these regions. Without appropriate land use and new economies in these regions of almost universal extreme comparative advantage in agriculture, we cannot solve the global ecological crisis.

Wednesday, 11 August 2021

‘The Week’’s mistake

Today, a journal called The Week said in an article titled ‘Tucker Carlson joins the right-wing pilgrimage to Budapest’:

“All of which means that Hungary looks to be for populist conservatives in the 2020s what the Soviet Union was for the international left a century ago: a foreign model of a morally and politically edifying future.”

There are serious problems with author Damon Linker’s idea. The most important is that conservatives have always had far more political models available for them than the international left. As Jacobin Magazine notes here and here, it has been very rare than the industrial working class has had the political power to create regimes so much as acceptable to the academic Left, and no other group but large industrial working classes in tradable heavy industry has the power to do so. The academic Left has typically had either zero models to work upon or a small choice from:

  • revolutionary Russia in the fleeting moment before the Civil War
  • revolutionary Spain in a similarly fleeting moment before its own Civil War
  • certain Stalinist regimes, chiefly Cuba
  • less often, European social democratic regimes (which tend to be rejected when dealing with much more conservative electorates like Australia or the United States)

Contrariwise, conservatives have available models dating back to the establishment of Christianity or even earlier, although in practice almost no conservative academics advocate regime types dating back further than the eighteenth century. Even Politically Incorrect Guides that praise the Middle Ages (especially the Guide to Western Civilization by Anthony Esolen) do not offer medieval society as a serious model. Corresponding to this far greater choice of political models for conservatives, there has typically been competing conservative models of an edifying future, which can indeed be opposed to each other as firmly as conservatism is opposed to liberalism and to socialism.

One could argue that looking to foreign models is relatively new for conservatives, or at least new for conservatives since World War Two. Since 1945, conservatives have typically looked to pre-World War One Western societies for models, although even this gives considerable choice between constitutional oligarchies and a variety of diverse authoritarian regimes. However, in the interwar period, many foreign conservative models were available for the ruling and middle classes of surviving democracies, and although many gained virtually zero adherents, there were many foreign admirers of and sympathizers with Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, and even Engelbert Dollfuß’ and Kurt Schuschnigg’s Austrian Ständesstaat or Salazar’s Portugal.

Linker is also wrong about Orbán’s regime being any sort of pariah. It has had conflicts with the remainder of the European Union, but that is totally unlike revolutionary Russia, which constituted an existential threat to every single coexisting ruling class. Both anti-Communist Paul Kengor and Trotskyist Peter Binns note that Lenin said in March 1919 that:

“We are living, not merely in a state but in a system of states and the existence of the Soviet Republic side by side with imperialist states for a long time [any length of time] is unthinkable. One or the other must triumph in the end. And before that end supervenes a series of frightful collisions between the Soviet Republic and the bourgeois states would be inevitable.”

Until after the Russian Civil War, no country anywhere in the world recognised Bolshevik Russia – for a ruling class that would be signing its own death warrant as the Bolsheviks – alongside Europe’s industrial working classes – were committed to the overthrow of every existing ruling class. Contrariwise, regimes incomparably more repressive and reactionary than Orbán’s – the Gulf monarchies for one, or even Putin’s Russia or Lusashenko’s Belarus – are not regarded as pariahs anywhere in the world because they support the power of the global ruling class.

Wednesday, 4 August 2021

Pentatrigesimal periods

Following from my previous post, I will give a list of all periods in pentatrigesimal (using all numbers and all letters except O) up to 1225, or 100 in pentratrigesimal. Periods are given in both bases to help.
PentatrigesimalPeriod35Period10DecimalPentatrigesimalPeriod35Period10Decimal
1001HJZ34614
2112HK1540615
3223HLK20616
4224HMHL616617
5005HN2X102618
6226HP2Y103619
7007HQA10620
8228HR1W66621
9229HS4F155622
A1110HT2I88623
BA1011HUC12624
C2212HV00625
D3313HW4G156626
E1114HX2K90627
F2215HY2878628
G4416HZ1136629
H1117I022630
I2218I13L126631
J9919I22878632
K2220I360210633
L2221I491316634
MA1022I51T63635
NB1123I61H52636
P2224I733637
Q0025I82070638
R3326I92070639
S6627IAX32640
T2228IB4K160641
UE1429IC31106642
V2230IDIC642643
W5531IEM22644
X8832IFE14645
YA1033IG99646
Z1134IHIG646647
100035III18648
112236IJ8A290649
12113637IK33650
139938ILA10651
146639IM4M162652
152240INIM652653
16154041IP1J54654
172242IQ1V65655
187743IR1540656
19A1044IS1136657
1A2245IT1B46658
1BB1146IUIY658659
1C1B4647IVA10660
1D4448IWIV660661
1E0049IX9F330662
1F1150IY66663
1G2251IZ2C82664
1H6652J099665
1I1H5253J11136666
1J6654J24E154667
1KA1055J34R166668
1L2256J46C222669
1MI1857J5X33670
1NE1458J61Q60671
1PU2959J744672
1Q2260J8J7672673
1R1Q6061J937112674
1S5562JA3Y138675
1T2263JB2878676
1UG1664JC4U169677
1V3365JDG16678
1WA1066JE33679
1XY3367JF22680
1Y2268JG6G226681
1ZM2269JHA10682
201170JI9R341683
21207071JJI18684
222272JK3W136685
23113673JL11686
24113674JM6I228687
252275JNT28688
26I1876JP4G156689
27A1077JQM22690
286678JR9V345691
29287879JS2G86692
2A4480JTA10693
2BI1881JU4Y173694
2C154082JV3Y138695
2D2C8283JWE14696
2E2284JX1540697
2F1185JY3B116698
2G7786JZ6M232699
2HE1487K022700
2IA1088K12070701
2J2I8889K266702
2K2290K31136703
2L3391K42A80704
2MM2292K51B46705
2NA1093K61944706
2P1B4694K72V100707
2Q9995K81N58708
2R8896K9A4354709
2S3397KA2070710
2T1198KB2878711
2UA1099KC2I88712
2V22100KD1K55713
2W2V100101KE22714
2X22102KFV30715
2Y2X102103KG53178716
2Z66104KH6T238717
3022105KIA8358718
311H52106KJA9359719
321I53107KK44720
3366108KL2X102721
34S27109KM4W171722
35A10110KN6V240723
361136111KPK20724
3744112KQE14725
38G16113KR35110726
39I18114KSKR726727
3AB11115KT66728
3BE14116KU4M162729
3C66117KV1136730
3D1N58118KW77731
3E11119KX1Q60732
3F22120KY58183733
3G35110121KZ3H122734
3H1Q60122L022735
3I1540123L12I88736
3JA10124L29F330737
3K00125L31540738
3L22126L4L3738739
3M1T63127L51136740
3NX32128L6I18741
3PE14129L71H52742
3Q66130L8AL371743
3R1V65131L9A10744
3SA10132LA2474745
3T99133LBAM372746
3UY33134LC2C82747
3V66135LDA10748
3W22136LE1I53749
3X3W136137LF22750
3YM22138LGLF750751
3Z1Z
69139LH2M92752
4022140LI75250753
411B46141LJ1742754
422070142LK4A150755
43V30143LL66756
4444144LM66756757
45E14145LNAT378758
461136146LP35110759
4722147LQI18760
481136148LR1540761
492474149LS3L126762
4A22150LTS27763
4B4A150151LU5F190764
4CI18152LV22765
4D22153LWAX382766
4EA10154LX4Z174767
4F55155LY1U64768
4G66156LZ7B256769
4H1439157M0A10770
4I2878158M11U64771
4J1H52159M21U64772
4K88160M35I193773
4LB11161M4E14774
4MI18162M555775
4N2B81163M666776
4P1540164M71136777
4QA10165M82S97778
4R2C82166M9AA360779
4S4R166167MA66780
4T22168MB2070781
4U1439169MCB11782
4V11170MD1742783
4WI18171ME44784
4XE14172MF1439785
4Y2G86173MG3Q130786
4ZE14174MHMG786787
5000175MI5L196788
51K20176MJ7H262789
521N58177MK2878790
532I88178MLS27791
5453178179MMA10792
5522180MN1Q60793
56K20181MP66794
5733182MQ1H52795
581Q60183MR5N198796
59M22184MSBD398797
5A1136185MTI18798
5BA10186MU1B46799
5CA10187MV88800
5D1B46188MW2I88801
5E66189MX1541802
5F99190MY55180803
5G5F190191MZ1W66804
5HG16192N0B11805
5I1U64193N1F15806
5J33194N27N268807
5K66195N32V100808
5L22196N4BJ404809
5M5L196197N5I18810
5NA10198N6BK405811
5P2U99199N7E14812
5Q22200N82K90813
5R1W66201N955180814
5S2V100202NA2B81815
5TE14203NB44816
5U44204NC1T63817
5V1540205NDBN408818
5W2X102206NE66819
5XM22207NF1540820
5YC12208NG1641821
5Z2K90209NH3W136822
6022210NIBR411823
6160210211NJ2X102824
621H52212NKA10825
632070213NLU29826
641I53214NMBT413827
6577215NNM22828
6666216NPNN828829
6755217NQ2C82830
68S27218NRC12831
691136219NS1D48832
6AA10220NT11833
6B33221NU3Y138834
6C1136222NV4R166835
6D6C222223NW2K90836
6E88224NXV30837
6F22225NY5Z209838
6GG16226NZBZ419839
6H6G226227P022840
6II18228P1BL406841
6J6I228229P2F15842
6KB11230P32070843
6LA10231P460210844
6ME14232P51439845
6N6M232233P61B46846
6P66234P735110847
6Q1B46235P81H52848
6R1N58236P982282849
6S2878237PA11850
6T11238PBBB396851
6U6T238239PC2070852
6V44240PDC6426853
6W6V240241PE1Q60854
6X35110242PFI18855
6Y1J54243PG31106856
6Z1Q60244PHC8428857
7000245PIV30858
711540246PJ43143859
7299247PKE14860
73A10248PL1540861
742C82249PMCA430862
7511250PNCB431863
763K125251PPP24864
7722252PQ2G86865
7835110253PR66216866
791T63254PSZ34867
7A22255PTA10868
7B1U64256PUB5390869
7C1U64257PVE14870
7DE14258PWY33871
7E1136259PX1J54872
7F66260PY66873
7GE14261PZ2U99874
7H1V65262Q000875
7I3R131263Q11136876
7JA10264Q2Q1876877
7K1H52265Q369219878
7L99266Q446146879
7M2I88267Q5K20880
7N1W66268Q6Q5880881
7P7N268269Q722882
7Q66270Q8CL441883
7R1A45271Q966884
7S44272QA3W136885
7T66273QBD13886
7U3W136274QCQB886887
7VA10275QD1136888
7WM22276QE1T63889
7XC12277QF2I88890
7Y3Y138278QG2K90891
7ZA10279QH6C222892
8022280QIBU414893
811035281QJ2474894
821B46282QK53178895
8382282283QLX32896
842070284QM1W66897
85I18285QNG16898
86V30286QP2070899
871540287QQ22900
8888288QR1H52901
89H17289QS1540902
8AE14290QTE14903
8B66291QUG16904
8C1136292QVK20905
8D46146293QW4A150906
8E22294QXCY453907
8FU29295QY6G226908
8G1136296QZ2V100909
8HV30297R033910
8I2474298R1R0910911
8JY33299R21136912
8K22300R3BQ410913
8L77301R4D1456914
8M4A150302R51Q60915
8N2V100303R66I228916
8P1136304R71V65917
8Q1Q60305R866918
8R22306R98R306919
8SZ34307RAM22920
8TA10308RBZ34921
8U2X102309RCD5460922
8VA10310RD60210923
8W4F155311REA10924
8X66312RF1136925
8Y4G156313RG6L231926
8Z1439314RH2X102927
9022315RI1L56928
912878316RJRI928929
9291316317RKA10930
931H52318RL99931
942070319RM6M232932
95G16320RN8V310933
9631106321RPDB466934
97B11322RQA10935
9899323RR66936
99I18324RS6P234937
9A33325RTY33938
9B2B81326RU4G156939
9C1J54327RV1B46940
9D1540328RWRV940941
9E1B46329RX2879942
9FA10330RYCK440943
9G9F330331RZ3B116944
9H2C82332S066945
9I1136333S12070946
9J4R166334S2DI473947
9K1W66335S32878948
9L44336S41136949
9M37112337S599950
9N1439338S691316951
9PG16339S722952
9Q22340S8S7952953
9RA10341S91H52954
9SI18342SA5F190955
9T00343SB6T238956
9UE14344SC2070957
9V22345SD6U239958
9W2G86346SE3W136959
9X4Y173347SFG16960
9YE14348SG4F155961
9Z3B116349SH1136962
A011350SI31106963
A166351SJ6V240964
A21540352SK1U64965
A31944353SLM22966
A41N58354SMDT483967
A52070355SN35110968
A62I88356SPI18969
A722357SQ33970
A853178358SRDV485971
A9A8358359SS1J54972
AA22360ST3Y138973
AB4W171361SU2B81974
ACK20362SV66975
AD35110363SW1Q60976
AE66364SXSW976977
AF1136365SY4M162978
AG1Q60366SZB5390979
AH3H122367T022980
AI66368T11J54981
AJ1540369T22T98982
AK1136370T3T2982983
AL1H52371T41540984
AMA10372T55L196985
ANAM372373T6E14986
APA10374T71B46987
AQ22375T8I18988
AR1B46376T92777989
AS1742377TAA10990
AT66378TB35110991
AUAT378379TC1540992
AVI18380TD9F330993
AW3L126381TE2070994
AX5F190382TF2U99995
AYAX382383TG2C82996
AZX32384THE8498997
B0A10385TIE8498998
B11U64386TJ1136999
B2E14387TK221,000
B366388TLV301,001
B42S97389TM4R1661,002
B566390TNU291,003
B6B11391TP752501,004
B722392TQ1W661,005
B83Q130393TREC5021,006
B95L196394TSDD4681,007
BA2878395TT441,008
BBA10396TU4T1681,009
BC66397TV2V1001,010
BD2U99398TW371121,011
BEI18399TX351101,012
BF44400TYEG5061,013
BG1540401TZ28781,014
BH1W66402U0E141,015
BIF15403U13L1261,016
BJ2V100404U2G161,017
BKI18405U3EI5081,018
BLE14406U4U31,0181,019
BM55180407U5221,020
BN22408U6U51,0201,021
BPBN408409U711361,022
BQ1540410U8A101,023
BR3W136411U97B2561,024
BS2X102412UA15401,025
BTU29413UBE181,026
BUM22414UC28781,027
BV2C82415UD1U641,028
BWP24416UE221,029
BX3Y138417UF2X1021,030
BY2K90418UGUF1,0301,031
BZ5Z209419UHE141,032
C022420UIUH1,0321,033
C1F15421UJ6K2301,034
C260210422UKM221,035
C31B46423UL11361,036
C41H52424UM1Q601,037
C511425UN2G861,038
C62070426UPEU5191,039
C71Q60427UQC121,040
C831106428UR9W3461,041
C9V30429USEV5201,042
CA77430UT24741,043
CBCA430431UUE141,044
CCC12432UV2K901,045
CD66216433UW4Z1741,046
CE55434UX3B1161,047
CFE14435UY3Q1301,048
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