Ever since the 2008/2009 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame inductees were announced, one thing has been made clear to me.
That being that until Public Enemy, N.W.A., The Pixies and Soundgarden become eligible in 2012/2013, there are at most four newly eligible artists likely to be on a Rock and Roll Hall of Fame ballot. The only near certainty is Guns'n'Roses, who will likely be among the inductees for 2011/2012. The other three are:
- the Red Hot Chili Peppers, who are not the certainty people think when you learn their first two albums were recorded with a different lineup (ex-Magic Band drummer Cliff Martinez) and never dented the Top 200.
- the Pet Shop Boys, who have enough respect but are far from certain simply because they lack the "superstar" status
- and rapper LL Cool J, whose induction will depend on how rap goes with the Nominating Committee.
This means that, if we want to predict with the slightest success the inductees for 2009/2010, 2010/2011 and 2011/2012, we need to look at the Rock Hall's backlog. This backlog consists of artists who have either
1) reached the ballot but never been elected
2) received numerous votes from the Nominating Committee but never enough to reach any final ballot
The next posts will contain a detailed analysis of the Rock Hall backlog and look at which artists are likely to be cleared from it during the 2009/2010, 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 inductions.