- the relationships in “summer” (April to September) and “winter” (November to February) are opposite in sign
- in “summer” the relationship between EWP and CET is negative, whereas in “winter” it is positive
- these differences are naturally due to the greater temperature variation of dry continental airflows producing low EWP values vis-à-vis moist maritime ones providing high EWP values
Ever since the discovery of the North Atlantic Oscillation in the middle nineteenth century, and especially since Frederick Löwe’s ‘The Temperature See-Saw between Western Greenland and Europe’, which celebrates its fiftieth anniversary this year, it has long been known that winter temperatures in the CET area, and as far east as the Ural Mountains, show a strong inverse correlation with those in western Greenland (but not necessarily eastern Greenland). It is important to recognise, as Löwe did, that winter temperatures in Greenland and other regions of the true Arctic (defined as those areas above the northern timberline) showed a major abrupt rise during the 1920s, as can be seen via the following graph:
|Global virgin period northern winter temperatures before and after 1920. Note the large increase in northwest Greenland and other regions of the true Arctic and contrast with erratic changes elsewhere|
- these observed predictions do hold
- I will measure this by means of the virgin (up to 1974) Spearman ρ Pearson r correlation coefficients between CET and the winter temperatures of each North American region
Florida (Southeast Region)
For Florida, representing the southeastern United States, we see a very simple positive correlation based on both Spearman and Pearson coefficients (not significantly different) for both the virgin period and even the post-1997 period where the influence of largely Australian-made greenhouse pollution took a further step beyond what it was from 1974 to 1997. Indeed, for all three colours of dots there is a clear line of best fit.
Ohio Valley Region (WV, KY, TN, OH, IN, IL, MO)
For the Ohio Valley Region, north of Florida, the graph is essentially similar in shape (only with of course vastly cooler temperatures). Winter temperature clearly correlates positively with CET, and this correlation is not contradicted except by a few outliers such as 2013/2014 and 1898/1899.
Texas (South Central Region)
The thing to do here is to look closely at the light red and dark red diamonds and see whether they form a similar sort of graph to the white diamonds. Without detailed calculation, it appears that in fact they do. Looking closely at the graph of CET versus Texas winter temperatures certainly visualises a similar shape for the diamonds of all three colours, although the full-period Spearman and Pearson correlations are considerably higher than for the three climate periods (1896 to 1974, 1975 to 1997 and since 1998) taken separately. Most especially, there are no extreme outliers coloured light or dark red – which could theoretically occur if opposing influence of natural variability and man-made greenhouse emissions gave different results over Texas and the UK.
Maine (Northeast Region)
If we look at the dark red diamonds, it is clear that those at the top show a full spread re their CET value. The same is clearly true of the lighter red diamonds – the temperature in Maine in the cold UK winter of 1978/1979 and the very warm winter of 1974/1975 – nor does any pattern exist for the dark red diamonds. Thus, Maine, like the southeastern regions, does not contradict the thesis that no change in natural relationships of CET with temperatures elsewhere has been caused by Australian greenhouse emissions.
ConclusionWe can see that, from out studies relating CET winter temperature to winter temperatures in the eastern half of the United States that:
- owing to greenhouse gas emissions largely sourced from Australia, South Africa and the Arab Gulf States, temperatures have risen steadily since 1975 in both the UK and eastern North America
- before 1975 definite natural positive relationships existed between UK winter temperatures and winter temperatures in southeastern North America
- no significant relationship exists between UK winter temperatures and those in:
- south-central North America (Texas)
- east-central North America (Maine)
- despite the marked increase in all regions’ temperatures, the relationships between them have not changed substantially under the influence of man-made greenhouse emissions largely sourced from a few mineral-rich desert states