The world’s first failed lockdown

After mild hopes that case numbers in Victoria would start to reflect the effects of the lockdown now a week old, today’s case numbers – 317 new cases – demonstrate some stark realities:

1. that present lockdown restrictions, whilst effective in the first outbreak and stronger than what was required anywhere else in Australia, are utterly unable to reduce infections in Melbourne under current conditions of spread and abundance
2. that this will become the first occasion anywhere in the world where a lockdown of non-essential services will fail entirely to reduce the rate of COVID-19 spread, let alone reduce actual case numbers
3. that unless a much more rigid “hard lockdown” is imposed, which will mean no one leaving their home at all even for shopping, numbers will rise and rise and rise and rise with no limit whatsoever except whatever is imposed by Melbourne’s population numbers
4. that the World Socialist Web Site are absolutely correct that the elimination of profit in quarantine is absolutely urgent – though they do not understand the actual importance of having quarantine
5. that the present inquiry into botches of quarantine is certainly to prove severely inadequate to bring the perpetrators to justice. This logically would require both severe financial penalties and substantial prison terms given the effects their spread of the virus is having upon employment opportunities for workers and the general public’s health
6. that the World Socialist Web Site are absolutely correct that there should be no reopening unless it be absolutely safe, meaning zero risk of new infections. Epidemiologists have ever since April said that absolute safety would mean easing restrictions only after minimally six weeks with no new cases
7. that when reopening does come – which even with a much harder lockdown would not be until several months into next year – testing of the population must be absolutely continuous to prevent one single undetected case from spreading

When the lockdown was imposed on 7 July, it was hoped that at this time case numbers would start to fall or plateau, as was admitted in today’s new by Chief Health Official Brett Sutton. The 317 new cases today puts paid to any prospect that the present lockdown is remotely adequate to even plateau new case numbers, let alone cause them to fall.

The reality is that only by a complete lockdown of the entire Melbourne public that does not allow them out of their homes for any purpose could there possibly be a reduction even in the long term. Such a measure would be exceedingly unpopular with a public already strained by three months of present-level restrictions.

The Andrews Government refuses to admit that its policies ever since the present outbreak began on 17 June have been a complete failure, and wishes to have the public believe there exists a minimal probability that present lockdown restrictions will some day lead to a reduction in numbers. However, this may not be the case if the public does not abide by the rules or if the operation of essential services leads to constant rapid transmission in public workplaces, food shops, or aged and medical care centres. These are centres of uncountable large outbreaks at present, and there exists the possibility that basic sustenance of life in aged care centres means workers will continuously transmit cases. Many aged care centre workers live far from where they work, and even with a rigid lockdown it may be impossible to stop continual spread unless the workers can either be given medical grade personal protective equipment or be accommodated in their workplaces. Under this scenario, unless those be absolutely required and paid for by the government, reduction in case numbers may be impossible in any time span.