Friday, 12 September 2025

Are prime-poor small centuries “expectedly” so?

On Mersenne Forum, there was a recent response to my previous blog post about moduli (3003), showing that not all centuries that are exceptionally poor in prime numbers have unusually few “potential” primes [“potential” primes being defined as numbers not divisible by 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, or 13 according to modulus (3003), with 3003 being the product of the first four primes coprime to 100].

In order to see whether centuries with abnormally few primes actually have few “potential” primes, I have aimed to test the modulus (3003) of every century up to ten million that has a record-low or equal-record-low number of primes (compared to smaller centuries only of course). These centuries, with their modulus (3003) and “potential” primes, are tabulated below
k Total primes mod (3003) Total
possible
primes
...1 ...3 ...7 ...9
2 16 2 17 5 5 3 4
3 16 3 19 4 5 6 4
5 14 5 18 4 4 5 5
7 14 7 19 4 5 4 6
9 14 9 18 6 3 6 3
11 12 11 17 4 5 3 5
13 11 13 18 4 5 5 4
21 10 21 15 4 5 3 3
24 10 24 18 4 3 6 5
31 10 31 20 6 4 5 5
41 9 41 17 4 4 5 4
43 9 43 21 4 5 6 6
48 8 48 19 7 4 5 3
59 7 59 19 3 6 5 5
95 7 95 18 4 5 5 4
142 7 142 20 4 5 5 6
165 7 165 18 5 3 5 5
167 7 167 19 5 3 5 6
186 6 186 17 5 3 5 4
188 5 188 17 3 4 5 5
273 5 273 20 6 5 5 4
314 4 314 17 3 5 4 5
356 4 356 19 5 4 6 4
524 4 524 18 4 4 6 4
588 3 588 19 5 5 4 5
695 3 695 17 5 4 4 4
797 3 797 16 4 3 5 4
1430 3 1430 17 5 5 3 4
1559 1 1559 17 4 5 4 4
2683 1 2683 20 5 4 4 7
4133 1 1130 17 5 6 3 3
10048 1 1039 20 5 6 5 4
11400 1 2391 18 5 3 5 5
12727 1 715 21 5 5 7 4
12800 1 788 19 3 6 5 5
13572 1 1560 21 6 4 6 5
14223 1 2211 19 6 4 4 5
14443 1 2431 19 5 3 6 5
14514 1 2502 16 3 4 5 4
14680 1 2668 21 5 5 6 5
14913 1 2901 19 4 4 6 5
15536 1 521 19 4 7 4 4
15619 1 604 20 5 4 4 7
16538 1 1523 17 4 6 3 4
16557 1 1542 18 5 4 5 4
16718 0 1703 20 6 6 3 5
26378 0 2354 17 5 5 3 4
31173 0 1143 17 4 4 5 4
39336 0 297 18 3 4 6 5
46406 0 1361 18 5 5 4 4
46524 0 1479 17 4 3 6 4
51782 0 731 17 4 6 3 4
55187 0 1133 16 3 4 4 5
58374 0 1317 20 5 6 6 3
58452 0 1395 19 6 4 6 3
60129 0 69 20 6 5 6 3
60850 0 790 19 5 5 4 5
63338 0 275 16 4 5 2 5
63762 0 699 19 5 4 6 4
67898 0 1832 17 3 5 4 5
69587 0 518 20 5 5 3 7
71299 0 2230 20 6 4 4 6
75652 0 577 20 5 5 5 5
78035 0 2960 20 4 5 5 6
78269 0 191 19 5 5 4 5
80277 0 2199 18 5 4 5 4
83674 0 2593 19 5 4 5 5
84213 0 129 19 3 5 6 5
89052 0 1965 19 6 4 4 5
95490 0 2397 17 5 4 5 3
97080 0 984 18 5 3 5 5

Results:

If we consider all centuries up to ten million that have an (equal) record low number of primes vis-à-vis preceding centuries, we find that:
“Potential primes” All centuries % “Record few” centuries % Difference in % Difference in ratio
15 4 0.13% 1 1.41% 1.28% 1057.39%
16 46 1.53% 4 5.63% 4.10% 367.79%
17 244 8.13% 17 23.94% 15.82% 294.68%
18 580 19.31% 13 18.31% -1.00% 94.80%
19 954 31.77% 19 26.76% -5.01% 84.24%
20 725 24.14% 13 18.31% -5.83% 75.84%
21 336 11.19% 4 5.63% -5.56% 50.35%
22 88 2.93% 0 0.00% -2.93% 0.00%
23 26 0.87% 0 0.00% -0.87% 0.00%
The table does seem to indicate systematic differences between centuries with the fewest primes up to that point, and all centuries, in terms of the number of potential primes. Whilst it is true that the proportion of moduli (3003) yielding 22 or 23 “potential primes” is very small, it is revealing that no century up to ten million with a record low number of primes has so many. With 19, 20 and 21 “potential primes”, the difference appears to be just as systematic inasmuch as the proportion of centuries with a record small number of primes having so many is consistently fewer than of all centuries. Contrariwise, for 15, 16 and 17 “potential primes”, the proportion is consistently higher for centuries with record few primes than for all centuries. This does imply that centuries with a record small number of primes do have a distinct tendency to have fewer “potential primes” than other centuries, even if the tendency is not consistent enough to apply to every such century.

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