Record floods in northern Australia and the record 46.4˚C day in Melbourne, along with six of the seven hottest days in formerly gorgeous Tasmania shows just how mistaken Australian policymakers from Robin Underwood to Jeff Kennett to John Brumby have been over the past thirty years. Rainfall declines in southern Australia and increases in the north seem to escalate each year, yet scientists do nothing to direct government policy towards zero emissions. Indeed they try to find detours like the “Asian Haze”, the Indian Ocean Dipole and now El Niño Modoki which serve to sedate an already impassive population and make changes in climate more extreme.
It is time we took news of escalating food prices from record rainfalls in Queensland and heat in the southeast as a warning and at the same time, a tip on what we should do. Climate change will soon make coastal Victoria unsuitable for fruit crops since 45˚C days which these crops cannot survive are soon likely to be experienced every summer. At the same time, a monsoon strengthened by global warming could well make keeping crops within the tropics free from flooding impossible. The fact that we have seen major losses to banana crops twice in four years shows where we are headed if nothing is done.
As the Australian says, Australia has for many years, owing to its abundance of flat land and freedom from pests and disease, had extremely cheap high-quality fruit and vegetables that have been the envy of the world. However, global warming is certain to sound a death knell to Australia’s fruit industry: even if water can be piped from the north, heat will always be a risk in the south, whilst the few less infertile northern soils of the Wet Tropics and Burdekin delta will either be more heavily leached or trees will repeatedly die from flooding.
What we should come to realise is that we Australians will have to be far less wasteful with fresh fruit. At home, I have many recollections of fruit or fruit products like banana cakes going off. Higher prices for fruit should make Australians more efficient in using it and more careful with their purchases. People in Europe, Asia and the Americas have had to cope with such higher prices since time immemorial. Australia’s culture is, in proportionate to an ecology that dictates exceptionally low-energy species, extraordinarily spendthrift.
What would be a good result from Australia no longer being able to grow cheap fruit abroad is that farmers in Europe, Asia, the Americas and New Zealand – all countries with more reliable rainfall and far superior soils to Australia – would have more chance of competing globally. One thing the availability of natural resources would give to those nations is some hope of restoring their demographic collapses. If the people of Europe, Asia, the Americas and New Zealand could profit from their main natural resource – their rich soils – rather than be out-competed by Australia’s cheap land, there would be much more incentive to have children and avoid the demographic decline resulting from these resources becoming valueless.
Thus, I hope most Australians can be philosophical about increasing food costs and try to imagine the benefits abroad, and for our country’s outlook on life.
Tuesday, 10 February 2009
Saturday, 7 February 2009
Anatomy of a record hot day and dry spell
Although it seemed scorching outside in the middle of today, it was still a genuine surprise to find that Melbourne had broken its previous hottest day by as much as 1˚C and its previous hottest February day by 3.2˚C.
Worse still, it seems likely Melbourne will beat its record forty-day dry spell by Wednesday. No general rain is forecast over Victoria until Saturday. More than that, today was forecast back on Sunday to be only 26˚C, and the record hot Friday before was forecast to be a lot less than it was. If the weather bureau keeps up with this record, Melbourne will have a day of 51˚C next Sunday.
The absence of alarm at these trends is disturbing. It suggests people think these two record hot days are an aberration because the first half of the summer was so cool.
In fact, the record hot weather is a symptom of anthropogenic global warming moving the monsoon southward and strengthening northerly airflows that are extraordinarily hot and dry by the time the cross the Great Divide north of Melbourne. Looking at today’s weather chart, the monsoon that before anthropogenic global warming was centred at around the latitude of Darwin of 12˚S, is now centred normally at the latitude of Tennant Creek or 20˚S. That shift of eight degrees has had the effect of making it much easier for extremely hot airflows to develop over southeastern Australia.
Worse still, Melbourne is in exactly the worst location for these hot northerlies. Being precisely on the southern slopes of the continent’s only significant east to west mountain range means that when powerful monsoons develop Melbourne is precisely on the leeward side of hot winds. In addition, as 2007’s Observed Poleward Expansion of the Hadley Circulation since 1979 demonstrates, atmospheric stability has increased greatly at precisely the latitudes where Melbourne is located. This means much longer times between the passages of cold fronts or other disturbances. Consequently, higher temperatures will be able to develop.
In fact, we con confidently predict that from this year on Melbourne will regularly experience the hottest temperatures in Australia during the summer. It is really likely that by 2020 temperatures in excess of 50˚C will regularly occur in Melbourne.
What one hopes is that, if the public in unwilling to really struggle for immensely reduced greenhouse emissions, government and business will ensure that such conditions areat the very least made more tolerable by improved building and rail design.
Worse still, it seems likely Melbourne will beat its record forty-day dry spell by Wednesday. No general rain is forecast over Victoria until Saturday. More than that, today was forecast back on Sunday to be only 26˚C, and the record hot Friday before was forecast to be a lot less than it was. If the weather bureau keeps up with this record, Melbourne will have a day of 51˚C next Sunday.
The absence of alarm at these trends is disturbing. It suggests people think these two record hot days are an aberration because the first half of the summer was so cool.
In fact, the record hot weather is a symptom of anthropogenic global warming moving the monsoon southward and strengthening northerly airflows that are extraordinarily hot and dry by the time the cross the Great Divide north of Melbourne. Looking at today’s weather chart, the monsoon that before anthropogenic global warming was centred at around the latitude of Darwin of 12˚S, is now centred normally at the latitude of Tennant Creek or 20˚S. That shift of eight degrees has had the effect of making it much easier for extremely hot airflows to develop over southeastern Australia.
Worse still, Melbourne is in exactly the worst location for these hot northerlies. Being precisely on the southern slopes of the continent’s only significant east to west mountain range means that when powerful monsoons develop Melbourne is precisely on the leeward side of hot winds. In addition, as 2007’s Observed Poleward Expansion of the Hadley Circulation since 1979 demonstrates, atmospheric stability has increased greatly at precisely the latitudes where Melbourne is located. This means much longer times between the passages of cold fronts or other disturbances. Consequently, higher temperatures will be able to develop.
In fact, we con confidently predict that from this year on Melbourne will regularly experience the hottest temperatures in Australia during the summer. It is really likely that by 2020 temperatures in excess of 50˚C will regularly occur in Melbourne.
What one hopes is that, if the public in unwilling to really struggle for immensely reduced greenhouse emissions, government and business will ensure that such conditions areat the very least made more tolerable by improved building and rail design.
Friday, 6 February 2009
Are the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology becoming “industry-funded scientists?”
The ABC is suggesting that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is what is causing the alarming decline in rainfall over southern Australia since 1997. Research has shown that there has been an absence of negative IOD events that bring heavy rainfall to southern Australia.
However, because
rainfall in central-western Australia is closely linked to the IOD, and has continued to soar upwards throughout the drying trend in southern Australia, I am a little alarmed. If positive IOD events produce dryness in central-western Australia as I had assumed, then the large increases in rainfall over that region are hard to explain.
The logical answer to me is that the moistening trend in central-western Australia and the drying trend in southern Australia are both driven from the Southern Ocean. Research has already shown links between a more positive Southern Annular Mode and higher central-western Australian rainfall in the period since 1967. The logical way to approach the rapid drying of southern Australia would then have been to focus on the Southern Ocean and changes that, from my reading of weather charts, have pushed southern depressions twenty degrees southwards since 1966.
What most upsets me is feeling that studying the Southern Ocean instead of the Indian might mean loss of financial support for the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology. Southern Ocean research could quite likely tell even the most sceptical scientist that the changes in rainfall are beyond the tiniest doubt related purely and simply to man-made global warming. This is what the best paleoclimate record strongly suggests, and also what New Scientist has twice shown in the past week. I am indeed starting to fear that many people within the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology are industry-funded scientists whose research is compromised by the need to accept the right of fossil fuel and light metal industries to alter the climate no matter how catastrophic it proves for southern Australia, rather than writing articles demanding that the coal and light metal industries pay for a complete switch to renewable energy by 2020. In the long run if Australia’s carbon emissions keep trending up and up and up gains abroad will be rendered worthless.
When the evidence is too conclusive to accept downright sceptics’ opinions, the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology wrongly calm the public by assuring them the drying of southern Australia is a natural cycle. What they should be stating is that the drying of the climate is due to changes in the Southern Ocean and the position of the Hadley cell induced by man-made greenhouse gases and having utterly nothing to do with any natural cycle. They should say this as forcefully as possible, and focus their attention on conservative outer suburbs presently insulated from academic research.
I am sure that is what scientists from Europe or Japan, who are not watched over by corporate polluters, would say if they were investigating climate change in Australia. I am indeed beginning to think foreign scientists should be encouraged to research climate change in Australia independently. Seeing if they get different results would certainly answer the question of how much industry influences Australia’s status as a laggard in reducing greenhouse emissions.
However, because
rainfall in central-western Australia is closely linked to the IOD, and has continued to soar upwards throughout the drying trend in southern Australia, I am a little alarmed. If positive IOD events produce dryness in central-western Australia as I had assumed, then the large increases in rainfall over that region are hard to explain.The logical answer to me is that the moistening trend in central-western Australia and the drying trend in southern Australia are both driven from the Southern Ocean. Research has already shown links between a more positive Southern Annular Mode and higher central-western Australian rainfall in the period since 1967. The logical way to approach the rapid drying of southern Australia would then have been to focus on the Southern Ocean and changes that, from my reading of weather charts, have pushed southern depressions twenty degrees southwards since 1966.
What most upsets me is feeling that studying the Southern Ocean instead of the Indian might mean loss of financial support for the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology. Southern Ocean research could quite likely tell even the most sceptical scientist that the changes in rainfall are beyond the tiniest doubt related purely and simply to man-made global warming. This is what the best paleoclimate record strongly suggests, and also what New Scientist has twice shown in the past week. I am indeed starting to fear that many people within the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology are industry-funded scientists whose research is compromised by the need to accept the right of fossil fuel and light metal industries to alter the climate no matter how catastrophic it proves for southern Australia, rather than writing articles demanding that the coal and light metal industries pay for a complete switch to renewable energy by 2020. In the long run if Australia’s carbon emissions keep trending up and up and up gains abroad will be rendered worthless.
When the evidence is too conclusive to accept downright sceptics’ opinions, the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology wrongly calm the public by assuring them the drying of southern Australia is a natural cycle. What they should be stating is that the drying of the climate is due to changes in the Southern Ocean and the position of the Hadley cell induced by man-made greenhouse gases and having utterly nothing to do with any natural cycle. They should say this as forcefully as possible, and focus their attention on conservative outer suburbs presently insulated from academic research.
I am sure that is what scientists from Europe or Japan, who are not watched over by corporate polluters, would say if they were investigating climate change in Australia. I am indeed beginning to think foreign scientists should be encouraged to research climate change in Australia independently. Seeing if they get different results would certainly answer the question of how much industry influences Australia’s status as a laggard in reducing greenhouse emissions.
Thursday, 5 February 2009
100 Greatest Romantic Albums
Recently in the music headlines has been a list of the 100 greatest "romantic" albums of all time.
At first, I was rather suspicious of the list, but looked at again it does contain some of the most undeniable classics, especially given the constraint of the "romantic" theme. Avalon, which was a megaseller in Australia during the time of the huge frosts of July 1982, set a standard of dreamy, melodic beauty that many were to try to emulate in later years. Dummy, with its memorable misheard lyric "You don't get summer for nothing" (if you're a regular reader you will know I really hate hot weather and even more radio stations that praise it), is just as good and its electronic beauty was so new back in 1994. "Iceblink Luck", on Heaven or Las Vegas, is another song that makes me imagine making our weatherpeople more willing to accept that a lovely day is one of fifteen rather than thirty degrees Celsius.
Björk's Homogenic, though I would not call it "romantic", is still a great album, and Solace is a record I do keep coming back to even though it does not sound so eccentric as it did when I first heard it amidst tuneless and noisy grunge back in the 1990s.
The Full List
1. Marvin Gaye - Let's Get it On
2. Nat King Cole - Sings For Two In Love
3. Al Green - Still in Love with You
4. Portishead - Dummy
5. Barry White - Plays for Someone You Love
6. Sade - Lovers Rock
7. Miles Davis - Kind of Blue
8. Joao Gilberto - Getz/Gilberto
9. The Carpenters - Close To You
10. Serge Gainsbourg - L'Historie De Melody Nelson
11. Aretha Franklin - I Never Loved A Man The Way I Love You
12. Joshua Bell - Romance of the Violin
13. Otis Redding - Soul Album
14. Jeff Buckley - Grace
15. Sigur Ros - ()
16. D'Angelo - Voodoo
17. Slowdive - Souvlaki
18. Anita Baker - Rapture
19. Norah Jones - Come Away With Me
20. Andrea Bocelli - Romanza
21. k.d. lang - Ingenue
22. Blossom Dearie - Blossom Dearie
23. Madeleine Peyroux - Careless Love
24. John Coltrane - Blue Trane
25. Frank Sinatra - Songs for Swingin' Lovers!
26. Billie Holiday - Songs For Distingue Lovers
27. Air - Moon Safari
28. Bread - Lost Without Your Love
29. Dusty Springfield - Dusty In Memphis
30. Josh Groban - Closer
31. Isley Brothers - Between the Sheets
32. Chet Baker - Chet
33. Isaac Hayes - Black Moses
34. Diana Krall - The Look of Love
35. Jimmy Scott - Falling In Love Is Wonderful
36. Dean Martin - Dino! The Italian Love Songs
37. Massive Attack - Mezzanine
38. Roxy Music - Avalon
39. Air Supply - Now and Forever
40. Prince - For You
41. Roberta Flack - First Take
42. Boyz II Men - II
43. Enigma - LSD
44. Depeche Mode - Violator
45. Fiona Apple - Tidal
46. Harry Connick, Jr. - We Are In Love
47. Zero 7 - Simple Things
48. Mazzy Star - So Tonight That I Might See
49. Theivery Corporation - The Mirror Conspiracy
50. George Michael - Faith
51. Paolo Conte - Reveries
52. Lou Donaldson - Lush Life
53. Carla Bruni - Quelqu'un M'a Dit
54. A Touch of Schmilsson in the Night - Harry Nilsson
55. The O'Jays - So Full Of Love
56. The Spinners - Mighty Love
57. Francoise Hardy - Ma Jeunesse Fout L'camp
58. Julee Cruise - Floating Into The Night
59. Nina Simone - Here Comes The Sun
60. The Dramatics - Me & Mrs. Jones
61. Cocteau Twins - Heaven or Las Vegas
62. Willie Nelson - Stardust
63. The Softies - It's Love
64. My Bloody Valentine - Loveless
65. John Lennon & Yoko Ono - Double Fantasy
66. Stevie Wonder - My Cherie Amour
67. Billy Ocean - Suddenly
68. Judee Sill - Heart Food
69. Usher - Confessions
70. Red House Painters - Red House Painters (I)
71. Roy Orbison - Mystery Girl
72. Erykah Badu - Baduism
73. Maxwell - Maxwell's Urban Hang Suite
74. John Legend - Save Room
75. Sarah McLachlan - Solace
76. Ray Charles & Milt Jackson - Soul Brothers/Soul Meeting
77. Jean-Yves Thibaudet - Satie: The Magic of Satie
78. Dave Brubeck - Take Five
79. Chris Isaak - Heart Shaped World
80. Raveonettes - Lust Lust Lust
81. Bjork - Homogenic
82. Patricia Barber - Modern Cool
83. Nicolai Dunger - Tranquil Isolation
84. Michael Buble - Call Me Irresponsible
85. Jill Scott - Who is Jill Scott?
86. Tricky - Maxinquaye
87. Goldfrapp - Black Cherry
88. Keren Ann - Nolita
89. Shirley Horn - Travelin' Light
90. James Moody - Young At Heart
91. Jens Lekman - When I Said I Wanted To Be Your Dog
92. Bebel Gilberto - Bebel Gilberto
93. The Cure - Disintegration
94. Enya - Watermark
95. The Postal Service - Give Up
96. Rufus Wainwright - Rufus Wainwright
97. The Magnetic Fields - 69 Love Songs, Vol. 1
98. Astrud Gilberto - Look to the Rainbow
99. R. Kelly - 12 Play
100. Seu Jorge - The Life Aquatic Exclusive Sessions
At first, I was rather suspicious of the list, but looked at again it does contain some of the most undeniable classics, especially given the constraint of the "romantic" theme. Avalon, which was a megaseller in Australia during the time of the huge frosts of July 1982, set a standard of dreamy, melodic beauty that many were to try to emulate in later years. Dummy, with its memorable misheard lyric "You don't get summer for nothing" (if you're a regular reader you will know I really hate hot weather and even more radio stations that praise it), is just as good and its electronic beauty was so new back in 1994. "Iceblink Luck", on Heaven or Las Vegas, is another song that makes me imagine making our weatherpeople more willing to accept that a lovely day is one of fifteen rather than thirty degrees Celsius.
Björk's Homogenic, though I would not call it "romantic", is still a great album, and Solace is a record I do keep coming back to even though it does not sound so eccentric as it did when I first heard it amidst tuneless and noisy grunge back in the 1990s.
1. Marvin Gaye - Let's Get it On
2. Nat King Cole - Sings For Two In Love
3. Al Green - Still in Love with You
4. Portishead - Dummy
5. Barry White - Plays for Someone You Love
6. Sade - Lovers Rock
7. Miles Davis - Kind of Blue
8. Joao Gilberto - Getz/Gilberto
9. The Carpenters - Close To You
10. Serge Gainsbourg - L'Historie De Melody Nelson
11. Aretha Franklin - I Never Loved A Man The Way I Love You
12. Joshua Bell - Romance of the Violin
13. Otis Redding - Soul Album
14. Jeff Buckley - Grace
15. Sigur Ros - ()
16. D'Angelo - Voodoo
17. Slowdive - Souvlaki
18. Anita Baker - Rapture
19. Norah Jones - Come Away With Me
20. Andrea Bocelli - Romanza
21. k.d. lang - Ingenue
22. Blossom Dearie - Blossom Dearie
23. Madeleine Peyroux - Careless Love
24. John Coltrane - Blue Trane
25. Frank Sinatra - Songs for Swingin' Lovers!
26. Billie Holiday - Songs For Distingue Lovers
27. Air - Moon Safari
28. Bread - Lost Without Your Love
29. Dusty Springfield - Dusty In Memphis
30. Josh Groban - Closer
31. Isley Brothers - Between the Sheets
32. Chet Baker - Chet
33. Isaac Hayes - Black Moses
34. Diana Krall - The Look of Love
35. Jimmy Scott - Falling In Love Is Wonderful
36. Dean Martin - Dino! The Italian Love Songs
37. Massive Attack - Mezzanine
38. Roxy Music - Avalon
39. Air Supply - Now and Forever
40. Prince - For You
41. Roberta Flack - First Take
42. Boyz II Men - II
43. Enigma - LSD
44. Depeche Mode - Violator
45. Fiona Apple - Tidal
46. Harry Connick, Jr. - We Are In Love
47. Zero 7 - Simple Things
48. Mazzy Star - So Tonight That I Might See
49. Theivery Corporation - The Mirror Conspiracy
50. George Michael - Faith
51. Paolo Conte - Reveries
52. Lou Donaldson - Lush Life
53. Carla Bruni - Quelqu'un M'a Dit
54. A Touch of Schmilsson in the Night - Harry Nilsson
55. The O'Jays - So Full Of Love
56. The Spinners - Mighty Love
57. Francoise Hardy - Ma Jeunesse Fout L'camp
58. Julee Cruise - Floating Into The Night
59. Nina Simone - Here Comes The Sun
60. The Dramatics - Me & Mrs. Jones
61. Cocteau Twins - Heaven or Las Vegas
62. Willie Nelson - Stardust
63. The Softies - It's Love
64. My Bloody Valentine - Loveless
65. John Lennon & Yoko Ono - Double Fantasy
66. Stevie Wonder - My Cherie Amour
67. Billy Ocean - Suddenly
68. Judee Sill - Heart Food
69. Usher - Confessions
70. Red House Painters - Red House Painters (I)
71. Roy Orbison - Mystery Girl
72. Erykah Badu - Baduism
73. Maxwell - Maxwell's Urban Hang Suite
74. John Legend - Save Room
75. Sarah McLachlan - Solace
76. Ray Charles & Milt Jackson - Soul Brothers/Soul Meeting
77. Jean-Yves Thibaudet - Satie: The Magic of Satie
78. Dave Brubeck - Take Five
79. Chris Isaak - Heart Shaped World
80. Raveonettes - Lust Lust Lust
81. Bjork - Homogenic
82. Patricia Barber - Modern Cool
83. Nicolai Dunger - Tranquil Isolation
84. Michael Buble - Call Me Irresponsible
85. Jill Scott - Who is Jill Scott?
86. Tricky - Maxinquaye
87. Goldfrapp - Black Cherry
88. Keren Ann - Nolita
89. Shirley Horn - Travelin' Light
90. James Moody - Young At Heart
91. Jens Lekman - When I Said I Wanted To Be Your Dog
92. Bebel Gilberto - Bebel Gilberto
93. The Cure - Disintegration
94. Enya - Watermark
95. The Postal Service - Give Up
96. Rufus Wainwright - Rufus Wainwright
97. The Magnetic Fields - 69 Love Songs, Vol. 1
98. Astrud Gilberto - Look to the Rainbow
99. R. Kelly - 12 Play
100. Seu Jorge - The Life Aquatic Exclusive Sessions
One does not know just what a disaster we are headed for without an utterly rigid zero emissions target by 2020
A very recent article in New Scientist and a 2007 article in Nature are confirmation that the rapid drying of southern Victoria cannot be related to the “Asian Haze”. Six years with a decline of 30 percent in Melbourne rainfall have already occurred, and the record forty-day dry spell from 18 December 1954 to 27 January 1955 is already sure to be broken. Most likely it will be beaten by an extraordinarily wide margin compared with what Sydney achieved between 15 July and 2 September 1995 when it beat the previous record by 38 percent. Thus, people who look for solutions in rainwater tanks will find they are as dry as the dams even could they be built so perfectly that they don’t evaporate a drop on a day of fifty degrees Celsius.
Another recent New Scientist article shows that if Australia does not cut its emissions from the highest in the world to absolutely zero within a decade, even improvements abroad or later will be useless because carbon dioxide emitted by Australia, which is still growing, stays in the atmosphere for a very long time.
The achievement of zero emissions in Australia within a reasonable time span really is very difficult, and will have to be based on immense pressure from abroad. Though I do fear personal losses therefrom, if people in the EU, Japan, Canada and New Zealand were serious about curbing global warming they would want to think about not visiting or trading with Australia – or having extraordinarily strict guidelines set for doing so, like not using cars or the electricity grid no matter how inconvenient it is.
Another recent New Scientist article shows that if Australia does not cut its emissions from the highest in the world to absolutely zero within a decade, even improvements abroad or later will be useless because carbon dioxide emitted by Australia, which is still growing, stays in the atmosphere for a very long time.
The achievement of zero emissions in Australia within a reasonable time span really is very difficult, and will have to be based on immense pressure from abroad. Though I do fear personal losses therefrom, if people in the EU, Japan, Canada and New Zealand were serious about curbing global warming they would want to think about not visiting or trading with Australia – or having extraordinarily strict guidelines set for doing so, like not using cars or the electricity grid no matter how inconvenient it is.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
