Saturday, 18 July 2009

Using the Top 100 Artists on Billboard's Top 200 as a predictor for the Rock Hall - Or Why the Charts Don't Matter?

In 1996, Billboard magazine published a list of all albums to have charted, and the list was updated in 2005. Though I have not read the updated version, I found the top 100 artists listed as part of the Future Rock Hall blog and sincerely thank one Roy for providing the list for me to analyse. Future Rock Hall has previously said that a successful singles career is simply not sufficient grounds for being inducted to the Rock Hall.

Being far more familiar with album than singles charts, I have ever since reading that study been curious about whether the top album artists on Billboard are likely to be inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.

Notable about the list below is that much more than the top singles artist list mentioned earlier, none of the artists are remotely recent: there is no Whitney Houston, no Janet Jackson, no Bon Jovi, no R.E.M., no Duran Duran, even no John Cougar Mellencamp. Only Mariah Carey and Garth Brooks remain ineligible as of the 2010 induction, and I do not imagine that very much will have changed in this direction since 2005.

It must be noted that most of the artists who are not Hall of Famers have most of their album sales from compilations of singles rather than original albums, which is why a number of pre-Billboard artists can be seen below. It is however true that some artists in the Hall of Fame with large cults (Morrison, Zappa, the Grateful Dead) also have sales from compilations that are vital to their place here. So does James Brown.

Of the 100 artists listed below
  • forty-nine are Hall of Famers as Performer, which is a somewhat better success rate than with the singles charts.
  • three are Hall of Famers in a category other than Performer (marked with for Non-Performer inductee and for Early Influence inductee)
  • but of the remaining forty-eight as few as seven (marked with #) have received serious discussion from the Nominating Committee, and it is not likely even these seven will get in soon.
On paper, this list is no better a predictive tool than the singles list and one cannot recommend it as a predictive tool, although there exist prospect of improvements if compilations could be excluded (a virtually impossible task).

The complete list, with links to those not in the Hall of Fame as a Performer, is:
  1. Elvis Presley
  2. Frank Sinatra
  3. The Beatles
  4. Barbra Streisand
  5. The Rolling Stones
  6. Johnny Mathis
  7. Elton John
  8. Bob Dylan
  9. Neil Diamond#
  10. The Temptations
  11. The Beach Boys
  12. Eric Clapton
  13. Ray Conniff
  14. Willie Nelson
  15. Ray Charles
  16. Rod Stewart
  17. Mantovani
  18. Aretha Franklin
  19. Paul McCartney
  20. David Bowie
  21. Prince
  22. James Brown
  23. Pink Floyd
  24. Andy Williams
  25. Lawrence Welk
  26. Neil Young
  27. Bee Gees
  28. Chicago#
  29. The Supremes
  30. Henry Mancini
  31. The Kingston Trio
  32. Jimmy Buffett
  33. Herb Alpert
  34. Kenny Rogers/First Edition
  35. Jimi Hendrix
  36. Aerosmith
  37. Stevie Wonder
  38. The Grateful Dead
  39. Roger Williams
  40. Fleetwood Mac
  41. The Ventures
  42. Led Zeppelin
  43. Van Morrison
  44. George Strait
  45. Nat "King" Cole
  46. KISS#
  47. Linda Ronstadt#
  48. Metallica
  49. Johnny Cash
  50. Billy Vaughn
  51. Bruce Springsteen
  52. Diana Ross
  53. Barry Manilow
  54. Queen
  55. Santana
  56. The Who
  57. Garth Brooks (eligible 2014/2015)
  58. Madonna
  59. Jefferson Airplane/Jefferson Starship/Starship
  60. U2
  61. Dionne Warwick
  62. Billy Joel
  63. John Denver
  64. Rush
  65. Mitch Miller
  66. Michael Jackson
  67. James Taylor
  68. Harry Belafonte
  69. The Isley Brothers
  70. Alabama
  71. The Lettermen
  72. The Eagles
  73. AC/DC
  74. Nancy Wilson
  75. Marvin Gaye
  76. The Doors
  77. Jethro Tull#
  78. Dolly Parton
  79. Tony Bennett
  80. The Kinks
  81. Dean Martin
  82. The Monkees
  83. Joan Baez
  84. Journey
  85. Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers/Tom Petty
  86. Glen Campbell
  87. Gladys Knight and the Pips
  88. Earth, Wind and Fire
  89. The Moody Blues#
  90. Frank Zappa
  91. Mariah Carey (eligible 2015/2016)
  92. Anne Murray
  93. Steve Miller Band#
  94. Enoch Light
  95. Cher
  96. Carole King
  97. Hall & Oates
  98. Elvis Costello
  99. Carly Simon
  100. Bob Seger
Please note that some of the links are defective as the artists do not have a Future Rock Hall page. They are there for consistency only and do not worry if you are redirected to the main Future Rock Hall list.

Thursday, 16 July 2009

How petrol's cheapness affects all prices

Today, I discovered an article showing that prices in the Euro zone are lower than they were last year.

However, those who think it relates to an economic collapse comparable to the Great Depression are entirely wrong. The only reason prices in the Euro zone are lower now than they were a year ago is the increased cheapness of petrol! Though I have not got figure on the volume of petrol one euro will buy for various European nations now and in July last year, it is clear that a barrel of oil has become more than twice as cheap as it was a year ago.

It is true though that the cheapness of oil has been increased by reduced fears of a major recession. However, what the chief point is that the cheapness of petrol has a dominating effect on the price of everything because petrol is essential to the present-day structure of goods transport. Where petrol is less cheap, everything else becomes less cheap too, which is why people here in Australia cannot accept that ecologically our living costs are outrageously low since at petrol prices that would reduce Australia's greenhouse emissions to an acceptable level, very few basic foods and other goods would be affordable at all.

An nasty surprise: Islamic law is operating in Britain

According to this site in The Daily Mail, there are as many as eighty-five Islamic law, or sharica, courts operating in Britain today, with little or no pressure from the British government to change the way they work.

This is a more serious warning of Islamic takeover in Europe than I had ever been tempted to make before. From the knowledge of rapidly falling fertility in the highly urbanised Muslim world today, I had assumed that the spread of sharica would not be permanent because high birth rates would not be sustained. However, if those Muslims in favour of strict sharica can reproduce at a rate far greater than Iran's surprisingly secular population can, then there is a real prospect of Europe being under sharica in the future. Given the record on human rights of countries with long-established sharica, this would be disastrous for the free world.

Friday, 10 July 2009

An amazing way to lose something

Today, I made the rather astonishing finding that I had left a rubber component of my cappuccino machine in a plant pot in the garden! I had assumed for a number of days it had been lost in on of our two downstairs rubbish bins and that me and my mother had failed to fish it out. despite removing two complete loads of rubbish and spreading them over newspaper.

Since paleoclimate models show Melbourne poised to become a hyper-arid city by 2020 or so, I have always tried to use waste water on my garden as long as there is no evidence it is not safe. For this reason, I poured waste water from the cappuccino jug onto a citrus tree in my garden on Monday night, and soon found that there was no rubber seal on the cappuccino machine. The rubber seal plays a vital role in preserving the machine because the frothing nozzle will wear if steel wool of any sort is applied to it, whereas with a rubber seal much less milk residue remains on it.

For several days I searched in a manner that suggests that at thirty-two I have finally done something towards improving my violent temper. Over quite some time discussing the issue of the rubber seal I never screamed violently, let alone grabbed anybody as I have a tendency to do whenever a problem which I cannot solve arises.

Ultimately, we decided to look for the Sunbeam spare parts department since we expected that the rubber nozzle cover, being so small a part, would be supplied to customers who lose one. I dithered about visiting in order to work on the computer (only typical), and when I travelled on the 402 bus to North Melbourne I could not find the place and had to use my mobile to find my mother in order to get directions. It turned out that the place was in fact at the extreme northern and of North Melbourne (quite close to the Upfield rail line) and I had to wait for another 402 bus. When I did reach the store, and this being around 16:00 I feared it would close, I asked for the part by number and was told after waiting anxiously that it would not be in stock for some time. Given the risk of damage if the frothing nozzle lacks this rubber part, I was very willing to wait, and I had a surprise gift in a poetry book by Robert Lowell I lost riding the first 402 bus. the very fact that I rang Sita Bus Lines as soon as I found I had lost the book shows that perhaps I am actually improving my maturity as I grow older.

Nonetheless, I always knew that the new nozzle protector would take quite some time to arrive, though the people expected it to come within a week. I had carefully cleaned the nozzle of the cappuccino machine whilst its protector was lost so that there was neither milk residue nor loss of the coating that protected the nozzle from the discolouring my previous machine suffered after losing its protector.

I found the original nozzle protector when putting out the washing this morning and was so amazed that - even with the knowledge I would not get a decent reply - rang up the mobile phones of both my mother and brother to tell them. As excited as I am, I know that a spare nozzle protector will be very valuable in case I do lost the original by a means like I thought I had lost this one, so that the eight dollars spent by my mother on the new nozzle protector is still worth it, she says.

Thursday, 9 July 2009

Keltner analysis of undiscussed Rock Hall Artists: Steve Earle

The site A List of Things Thrown Five Minutes Ago, discusses various artists' credentials for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.

After finishing my analysis of the Rock Hall backlog, I always intended to analyse artists who have never been discussed by the Nominating Committee, but still might have credentials to justify induction. The aim of the process is to find out whether, on the basis of the Keltner list for a Hall of Fame, the Nominating Committee really is completely ignoring artists who have undeniable credentials to be in the Hall.

I do admit that there are some problems with the criteria, especially given known biases of the Nominating Committee and how they effect who is already in the Hall, but still I cannot see any better alternative.

I have already done four Keltner tests on undiscussed artists:
My next artist, again first eligible in 2007/2008, is Steve Earle. Beginning as nominally a country artist with the EP Pink and Black that was issued in three limited editions of 1000 and has never made it to compact disc. It was 1986 before Earle hit the public's consciousness with his first full album Guitar Town, and he followed it up with a tour in which he supported both The Replacements and George Jones to show the broadness of his audience. Earle then recorded 1987's more rock-oriented Exit O and 1988's conceptual Copperhead Road, where the two halves had a completely different feel: one side of uptempo socially conscious piece and one of slower love songs with Maria McKee backing him. The album was his biggest seller and in Australia the title song became a top 30 single and is still played on classic rock radio.

However, drug addiction was taking its toll and 1990's The Hard Way showed the strain. After that, Earle did not release another studio album until the middle 1990s, with only two live albums Shut Up and Die like an Aviator and BBC Radio 1 Live in Concert: An Overview to complete a contract with MCA. In 1993, Earle went to jail for possessing drugs, but after his release he surprisingly recovered and has recorded as frequently as ever since 1994's Train a Coming. At first, Earle's following seemed to have deserted him and his late 1990s albums, more classically "country" in sound, rarely dented the Billboard Top 200. However, his political activism since the September 11 terrorist attacks has served to raise his profile once more. His latest album, 2009's Townes, his first covers album, reached #19 on the Billboard 200.

An evaluation of Steve Earle's Rock Hall credentials based on the Keltner criteria, which actually come from the Baseball Hall of Fame follows.

1) Was Steve Earle ever regarded as the best artist in rock music? (Did anybody, while Steve Earle was active, ever seriously suggest Steve Earle was the best artist in rock music?): No. Though he was well-received by rock critics and the public, Earle was never able to be seen as the trendsetter of his peak years in the late 1980s.

2) Was Steve Earle ever the best artist in rock music in his genre?: As a roots-rocker (which All Music describes him), probably not because of the competition from Springsteen and even Mellencamp or the Black Crowes in the early 1990s. Nevertheless, in country rock, Earle was definitely the main force behind the revitalisation of the genre. His only rivals would be the Jayhawks, and they never achieved the commercial success Earle did (not denting the Top 150 before 1995).

3) Was Steve Earle ever considered the best at his instrument?: Not really. Steve Earle was not on Rolling Stone's 100 Greatest singers and has rarely been regarded as a virtuoso either on vocals or guitar.

4) Did Steve Earle have an impact on a number of other artists?: Yes, definitely. Steve Earle undoubtedly was a key component in the evolution of the alt-country genre in the 1990s and is cited by pop-country artists of the early 2000s like Kasey Chambers as a key influence.

5) Was Steve Earle good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?: Yes, Steve Earle has been playing and recording as regularly as ever since he recovered from his drug problems in the middle 1990s that threatened his career whilst he was at an artistic and commercial peak and the tail end of the 1980s. In recent times, as noted above, Earle has even restored his popularity.

6) Is Steve Earle the very best artist in history that is not in the Hall of Fame?: Of course, one could never go so far with Steve Earle's Rock Hall credentials to seriously argue this. Steve Earle certainly has a place in history for having revitalised and reinvigorated a whole genre of music, but I do not think anybody could say that compares with inventing or popularising entirely new genres like bands like the Stooges, Captain Beefheart, Sonic Youth, Slayer or latterly Nirvana did.

7) Are most singers who have a comparable recording history and impact in the Hall of Fame?: I would think not, since few singer/songwriters outside the most explicitly popular are in the Hall of Fame, and those that are like Neil Young, Van Morrison and Joni Mitchell had much wider influence and higher commercial peaks. Moreover, previous innovators in the field of country-rock like the Flying Burrito Brothers have not been honored, so that inducting Steve Earle would be out of place in that context.

8) Is there any evidence to suggest that Steve Earle was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistical records?: There is really little to argue here.

9) Is Steve Earle the best artist in his genre that is eligible for the Hall of Fame?: Probably not, given that Gram Parsons and the Flying Burrito Brothers have not yet been inducted.

10) How many #1 singles/gold records did Steve Earle have? Did Steve Earle ever win a Grammy award? If not, how many times was Steve Earle nominated?: Steve Earle had no Top 50 hit singles on Billboard, and only one gold record in the US in Copperhead Road. He won only one Grammy award, and that in 2007 well after his "peak" years. This thus can only be a case against his induction.

11) How many Grammy-level songs/albums did Steve Earle have? For how long of a period did Steve Earle dominate the music scene? How many Rolling Stone covers did Steve Earle appear on? Did most artists with this sort of impact go into the Hall of Fame?: As mentioned in the previous section, Steve Earle had only one Grammy-level album, and overall he never "dominated" the music scene, reaching his peak at a time when the genre he was in was in the background because of the overwhelming musical and cultural power of hip hop and thrash metal. This may also be the reason why he appeared on no Rolling Stone covers during the late 1980s.

12) If Steve Earle was the best artist at a concert, would it be likely that the concert would rock?: I have never heard much about his concert performances, but the desire for live albums during his peak years in the late 1980s does suggest he had some impact. Whether it is adequate I am far from sure though.

13) What impact did Steve Earle have on rock history? Was he responsible for any stylistic changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did Steve Earle change history in any way?: Steve Earle certainly had an impact on rock history in revitalising country-rock and roots-rock for the 1990s, and even in bringing this tough, rootsy approach to a quite large - if never "mass" - audience. However, as I have noted above, Steve Earle, during his peak years, was in the background because of other far more important changes in music.

14) Did Steve Earle uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?: By principle, I would say his drug problems in the late 1980s are a minus here, and that the way in which he today had been bashing George W. Bush is not the asset some think. Otherwise there is not much to say.

Verdict: If one were to induct Steve Earle, one would have to induct at least the Flying Burrito Brothers who came long beforehand, and potentially a number of other artists in the same genre whose merits remain to be tested but could hardly favour induction. Overall, therefore, despite his considerable impact on the genre I will have to give a don't induct.