Monday, 25 May 2020

25-scoring-shot quarter aggregates

Ten years ago, I did a post on cases of 100 points being scored in a quarter in VFL/AFL football. A few weeks ago, I listed all 37 cases in a tabulated manner.

Having long been interested in the length of [Australian rules] football games and quarters, I have recently considered whether aggregate scoring shots rather than aggregate points scored would provide a better indication of how long a quarter or match is likely to last.

For this reason, I have looked for quarters in VFL/AFL football with at least 25 aggregate scoring shots. As a first note, I have tabulated such quarters in pink below:

Round Home Team ¼ time ½ time ¾ time
Away Team ¼ time ½ time ¾ time
Round 1, 1934 Essendon 8.2 (50) 12.5 (77) 15.9 (99) 19.11 (125) Footscray 8.7 (55) 10.13 (73) 13.15 (93) 16.18 (114)
Round 6, 1935 Carlton 2.4 (16) 12.11 (83) 15.13 (103) 20.16 (136) North Melbourne 2.5 (17) 6.9 (45) 8.12 (60) 9.14 (68)
Round 2, 1939 South Melbourne 3.4 (22) 8.11 (59) 10.14 (74) 15.17 (107) Collingwood 8.12 (60) 11.13 (79) 17.18 (120) 21.20 (146)
Round 3, 1940 Collingwood 5.4 (34) 6.8 (44) 13.18 (96) 18.19 (127) Carlton 2.4 (16) 5.6 (36) 7.13 (55) 12.18 (90)
Round 19, 1945 Carlton 5.3 (33) 12.9 (81) 14.13 (97) 23.23 (161) Geelong 1.2 (8) 2.6 (18) 7.8 (50) 9.13 (67)
Round 15, 1969 Collingwood 3.3 (21) 6.5 (41) 12.13 (85) 15.16 (106) Carlton 4.2 (26) 7.6 (48) 14.10 (94) 17.14 (116)
Round 19, 1975 South Melbourne 4.4 (28) 7.13 (55) 10.17 (77) 13.20 (98) Fitzroy 6.1 (37) 10.10 (70) 12.14 (86) 16.19 (115)
Round 1, 1977 Fitzroy 8.5 (53) 13.11 (89) 16.13 (109) 21.17 (143) Richmond 5.3 (33) 13.10 (88) 16.17 (113) 18.21 (129)
Round 6, 1977 Hawthorn 5.11 (41) 10.24 (84) 15.32 (122) 25.41 (191) St. Kilda 2.0 (12) 10.3 (63) 11.5 (71) 16.7 (103)
Round 2, 1978 Melbourne 4.7 (31) 14.15 (99) 20.20 (140) 24.23 (167) Fitzroy 5.3 (33) 8.7 (55) 16.13 (109) 23.19 (157)
Round 6, 1978 Melbourne 6.2 (38) 8.5 (53) 15.8 (98) 21.15 (141) St. Kilda 8.7 (55) 19.12 (126) 23.13 (151) 31.18 (204)
Round 13, 1978 Essendon 1.6 (12) 2.12 (24) 7.16 (58) 12.26 (98) Collingwood 3.2 (20) 9.8 (62) 11.14 (80) 14.21 (105)
Round 14, 1978 Richmond 3.5 (23) 11.15 (81) 16.15 (111) 17.20 (122) Geelong 5.3 (33) 11.4 (70) 15.8 (98) 18.9 (117)
Round 7, 1979 Footscray 4.3 (27) 10.7 (67) 13.10 (88) 22.17 (149) South Melbourne 4.4 (28) 9.6 (60) 10.12 (72) 14.17 (101)
Round 15, 1979 Melbourne 5.3 (33) 9.11 (65) 17.17 (119) 24.23 (167) South Melbourne 4.5 (29) 10.5 (65) 18.8 (116) 24.10 (154)
Round 5, 1980 Richmond 6.1 (37) 13.8 (86) 18.19 (127) 29.25 (199) Fitzroy 4.3 (27) 4.8 (32) 9.13 (67) 11.15 (81)
Round 9, 1980 Collingwood 2.8 (20) 10.18 (78) 13.23 (101) 18.28 (136) Geelong 0.7 (7) 6.10 (46) 10.13 (73) 15.15 (105)
Round 22, 1980 Carlton 5.5 (35) 9.11 (65) 19.17 (131) 21.20 (146) Fitzroy 3.5 (23) 5.11 (41) 11.14 (80) 20.22 (142)
Round 3, 1982 Richmond 4.7 (31) 12.14 (86) 15.18 (108) 25.22 (172) Essendon 6.3 (39) 12.9 (81) 14.13 (97) 16.14 (110)
Round 17, 1983 Fitzroy 2.4 (16) 14.10 (94) 16.12 (108) 20.18 (138) St. Kilda 7.6 (48) 14.7 (91) 19.14 (128) 22.17 (149)
Round 5, 1985 Hawthorn 4.8 (32) 9.16 (70) 14.18 (102) 21.23 (149) Richmond 5.5 (35) 13.10 (88) 23.11 (149) 29.14 (188)
Round 14, 1985 Geelong 7.9 (51) 10.13 (73) 14.19 (103) 17.22 (124) Footscray 7.3 (45) 12.6 (78) 17.8 (110) 23.8 (146)
Round 21, 1985 Sydney 8.10 (58) 14.15 (99) 20.17 (137) 24.21 (165) Melbourne 2.5 (17) 5.10 (40) 10.11 (71) 14.13 (97)
Round 5, 1988 North Melbourne 3.2 (20) 7.8 (50) 12.11 (83) 19.14 (128) Hawthorn 7.3 (45) 14.7 (91) 25.14 (164) 31.19 (205)
Round 1, 1989 Carlton 1.2 (8) 2.6 (18) 8.10 (58) 10.13 (73) Footscray 5.3 (33) 9.6 (60) 17.13 (115) 19.18 (132)
Round 1, 1989 North Melbourne 2.5 (17) 11.9 (75) 14.14 (98) 18.17 (125) Geelong 6.3 (39) 9.12 (66) 14.17 (101) 17.21 (123)
Round 5, 1989 North Melbourne 3.1 (19) 8.9 (57) 10.12 (72) 20.14 (134) Richmond 7.3 (45) 9.5 (59) 18.10 (118) 26.15 (171)
Round 6, 1989 Hawthorn 5.3 (33) 9.5 (59) 16.9 (105) 26.15 (171) Geelong 8.4 (52) 17.6 (108) 19.10 (124) 25.13 (163)
Round 8, 1989 West Coast 3.4 (22) 7.13 (55) 9.20 (74) 12.21 (93) Melbourne 1.3 (9) 7.10 (52) 8.12 (60) 13.17 (95)
First Semi-Final, 1989 Geelong 3.3 (21) 8.8 (56) 12.11 (83) 22.21 (153) Melbourne 1.5 (11) 3.11 (29) 8.16 (64) 12.18 (90)
Round 4, 1991 Richmond 5.8 (38) 9.10 (64) 14.12 (96) 19.13 (127) Sydney 9.4 (58) 13.8 (86) 16.14 (110) 24.20 (164)
Round 4, 1991 Brisbane 2.1 (13) 8.8 (56) 10.11 (71) 12.16 (88) Geelong 4.9 (33) 11.16 (82) 21.21 (147) 27.28 (190)
Round 6, 1991 North Melbourne 5.7 (37) 13.12 (90) 19.18 (132) 27.26 (188) Sydney 9.3 (57) 19.6 (120) 21.8 (134) 21.8 (134)
Round 21, 1991 Hawthorn 7.6 (48) 11.15 (81) 22.25 (157) 28.27 (195) Fitzroy 2.2 (14) 4.5 (29) 7.6 (48) 10.9 (69)
Round 22, 1991 Fitzroy 7.5 (47) 14.9 (93) 17.14 (116) 22.16 (148) North Melbourne 4.2 (26) 14.6 (90) 16.12 (108) 21.21 (147)
Round 13, 1992 North Melbourne 4.2 (26) 5.6 (36) 14.8 (92) 17.13 (115) Geelong 7.5 (47) 16.8 (104) 23.16 (154) 29.18 (192)
Round 23, 1992 Adelaide 5.6 (36) 14.17 (101) 17.21 (123) 24.25 (169) Geelong 1.9 (9) 4.5 (29) 8.9 (57) 11.12 (78)
Round 7, 1994 Geelong 7.3 (45) 13.9 (87) 15.12 (102) 18.16 (124) Collingwood 0.1 (1) 4.10 (34) 12.14 (86) 13.18 (96)
Round 22, 1995 North Melbourne 7.11 (53) 16.13 (109) 25.21 (171) 30.24 (204) Fitzroy 6.1 (37) 8.2 (50) 12.6 (78) 15.11 (101)
Round 5, 2001 Brisbane 3.4 (22) 9.9 (63) 12.15 (87) 25.21 (171) Fremantle 6.2 (38) 8.4 (52) 15.6 (96) 19.8 (122)
Some notable facts about 25-scoring-shot quarters:
  1. the total number of 43 is six more than the 37 century-aggregate quarters
  2. the most in one season is six in 1989
  3. the second-most is five in 1978 and five in 1991
  4. other seasons with multiple cases are 1977 (three), 1979, 1980 (three), 1985 (three), 1992 and 1995 (two in one match)
  5. the most 25-scoring-shot quarters played by any club is 11 by Fitzroy and Geelong
  6. Port Adelaide, Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney have played no 25-scoring-shot quarters; Adelaide, Fremantle and West Coast just one
  7. Essendon have the fewest by any pre-1987 club with just three
  8. unlike century-aggregate quarters, three matches have seen two 25-scoring-shot-aggregate quarters:
    1. Hawthorn v St. Kilda, Round 6, 1977 (second and final)
    2. Melbourne v Fitzroy, Round 2, 1978 (second and third)
    3. North Melbourne v Fitzroy, Round 22, 1995 (first and third)
  9. unlike century-aggregate quarters, there has been one case in a finals match of 25 scoring shots in a quarter, between Geelong and Melbourne in the last quarter of the 1989 First Semi-Final
    • although not reching the century aggregate, this last quarter is the highest-scoring quarter ever recorded in a finals match – remarkably it was quite a rainy day
  10. of the 43 25-scoring-shot-aggregate quarters, a total of twelve were also century-aggregate quarters
    1. these twelve quarters constitute 32.43 percent of all century-aggregate quarters and 27.91 percent of all 25-scoring-shot-aggregate quarters
  11. there have been six of the consistent 22 rounds since 1970 without a 25-scoring-shot-aggregate quarter:
    1. Round 10
    2. Round 11
    3. Round 12
    4. Round 16
    5. Round 18
    6. Round 20
  12. Contrariwise, there have been six cases on Round 6, five cases on Round 5, and four cases on Round 1 and Round 22
  13. This pattern is broadly similar to those of century-aggregate quarters, though with a larger drop occurring at the height of the season in the coolest and darkest winter weather
  14. unlike century-aggregate quarters, there have been two rounds – Round 1, 1989 and Round 4, 1991 – with two games featuring a 25-scoring-shot aggregate quarter
  15. the lowest aggregate for a 25- or more-scoring-shot-quarter is 7.18 (60) between South Melbourne and Fitzroy in Round 19, 1975
  16. the lowest match aggregate with a 25-scoring-shot quarter is 25.38 (188) between West Coast and Melbourne in Round 8, 1989
  17. of the 43 quarters with 25 scoring shots, 23 have had exactly 25 scoring shots, 15 had 26 aggregate scoring shots, four had 27 aggregate scoring shots, none had 28 aggregate scoring shots, and one (the second quarter between Hawthorn and St. Kilda in Round 6, 1977) had 29 aggregate scoring shots
  18. of the 20 quarters with 26 or more scoring shots, there were three (two in one match) in 1977 and 1991. Two occurred in 1980, 1985, and 1989
  19. all of the five quarters with 27 or more aggregate scoring shots were first or second quarters – four being second quarters alone
  20. the previous point does suggest that accuracy improving as players are exhausted may be a factor in causing century-aggregate quarters to concentrate in the final quarter when players are most weary

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