A never-ending and intensifying lockdown, for sure

The news that Victoria had had thirteen new cases of the novel coronavirus since last morning is sadly depressing.

Mummy and I have hoped and even expected that cases would fall to zero soon – they had been low since the middle of April and other states of Australia have had very few cases in the period. South Australia has not had a case since April 23, whilst Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory have experienced just a handful.

Although part of the increase in COVID-19 cases over the past two days may be a result of increased testing, five of twenty cases have been due to unknown domestic sources. This number is much greater than the total number of cases reported on many days since mid-April. Since it stands implausible that all these people responsible for unknown domestic cases can be traced step but step, it is almost certain that Victoria will experience:

1. a rapid increase in COVID-19 cases, far beyond the peak of 111 cases per day at the end of March
2. must more rigid social restrictions and closures of non-essential businesses than seen over the past six weeks, akin to those seen in many Enriched World cities
3. an extremely long period of social distancing and lockdowns, that will last for many years unless a new drug or vaccine be found
4. radical alterations to the economy even if and when restrictions like closures of public meeting places be eased
• as Premier Andrews admitted when new cases in Victoria were at their low point, social distancing is here to stay until 2022 at the very earliest and probably many years beyond that
5. major economic losses for the majority of people as the government attempts to conserve spending to deal with a long-lasting COVID crisis

The fact that Victoria has had the most rigid restrictions yet has the worst outbreaks six weeks into the crisis and has no hope of averting case and death totals far, far worse than already experienced will no doubt have profound political effects. Rural and outer suburban Australia – entirely unsuited to contagious viruses due to their oligotrophic soils and sparse population – will demand elimination of public interference into such pandemics, and desire further reductions in public services, believing city dwellers must fund these entirely from their own pockets. (A clue exists in last Wednesday’s Weekly Times). Urban dwellers actually affected by the crisis will desire a much deeper safety net and improved quarantine or sanitation to prevent such a crisis again, but this will arouse hostility in outer suburban and rural areas. The result could be either:

1. persistent political deadlock with permanent severe lockdowns or,
2. a ruling class attack on Australia’s democracy in favour of an authoritarian systems that does not have to consider the demands of urban dwellers for public services

Either of these scenarios is undesirable, but one or the other is a sad certainty.